Israelis will head to the polls on October 27 to cast their vote to elect the Knesset, after three years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, which have all plunged the Middle East into turmoil.
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which → head → turmoil
Much of the election is centred around Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seeking another term after 18 years in power - but neither he nor the opposition has a clear path to a governing majority.
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he → centre → majority
Amid the fragmented political system the country may have to wait weeks or even months before a new government is confirmed.
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government → have → system
How do the elections work?
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elections → work → ?
There are 38 different parties contesting the election, but most will not get enough votes to secure one of the 120 seats in the Knesset.
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most → be → Knesset
Israeli elections are based on nationwide proportional representation.
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elections → base → representation
Citizens cast votes for a single party - not for individual candidates - and the party’s number of seats is determined by the proportion of the national vote it receives.
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it → cast → vote
To actually enter the Knesset, a party must receive at least 3.25 per cent of the vote, or four seats.
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party → enter → vote
Historically, no single party has won a majority, so governments are formed by a coalition.
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governments → win → coalition
If no one manages to form a coalition with a 61-seat majority, citizens return to the ballot box.
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citizens → manage → box
When will the result be announced?
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result → announce → ?
Polls open at 7am local time and close at 10pm that night.
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Polls → open → pm
The official results will be confirmed on November 4.
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results → confirm → November
But the whole process will take much longer, ranging from 20 to 100 days.
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process → take → days
In the past two decades, no government has been sworn in in less than 50 days.
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government → swear → days
After a coalition agreement is signed, the Knesset convenes a special session during which the designated Prime Minister presents the new government and its policy agenda.
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Minister → sign → government
A formal vote is then held, and if the new government wins the vote, it starts its tenure.
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it → hold → tenure
The election is viewed domestically as one of the most consequential in the history of Israel.
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election → view → Israel
The outcome could have profound consequences for the Palestinians and Israel’s relations with neighbouring states as well as international partners like the US and Europe.
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outcome → have → US
Some of the main issues centre on the debate over exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, how the state should investigate its inability to prevent the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks and future concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.
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state → centre → Gaza
Israel’s wars have also put pressure on the economy, so the cost of living will definitely weigh on people’s minds when casting their votes.
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cost → put → votes
For context, the state’s defence budget has doubled since 2023.
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budget → double → 2023
Who is leading the polls?
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Who → lead → polls
Two main blocs - of nearly equal weight - are facing off against each other.
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blocs → face → other
One is an alliance of far-right parties dominated by Netanyahu, and the other camp is led by Yashar’s Gadi Eisenko, a former head of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF).
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camp → dominate → Forces
Current polling put the two in a tight race to become prime minister.
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polling → put → race
But the PM’s coalition is likely to fall short of a majority, according to a new poll reported by The Independent .
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coalition → fall → Independent
Based on responses, the most likely scenario would see the right-wing “Haredi” bloc - including Netanyahu’s Likud and Shas - securing 52-54 seats.
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bloc → base → seats
That includes a drop in seats for Likud with 19 and a decrease to six for Shas.
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That → include → Shas
Meanwhile, the Eisenkot-led opposition is predicted to secure the most seats, although other liberal parties it could form a coalition with are forecast to collectively pool fewer votes than the right-wing.
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it → lead → wing
Dr Nimrod Nir of Agam Labs said that “the real political drama will begin the morning after the election.”
“Israel’s election is not a single game, but a tournament – and election day is only the opening round,” he added.
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he → say → election
“Our polling suggests that neither bloc is likely to secure a governing majority, leaving three possible outcomes: a unity government bringing Netanyahu together with more liberal parties, an alternative coalition backed by Arab parties, or yet another election.”
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bloc → suggest → parties
The Aporia
