The BC Conservatives could win a majority government in this election if the latest poll numbers hold up and leader Lorne Doerkson could become premier.
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Doerkson → win → election
The new Ipsos poll, conducted in partnership with Global BC, is the final poll before election day on Oct. 24.
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poll → conduct → Oct.
The poll shows the BC Conservatives at 44 per cent, up one point from the last poll, while the BC NDP remain five points behind at 39 per cent, and the BC Green Party stands at 13 per cent, up two points.
“While survey margins of error still leave some room for doubt, Lorne Doerkson is a solid favourite to go from obscurity to premier-elect in the span of just five weeks,” according to the Ipsos poll.
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Doerkson → show → poll
“A BC Conservative victory is by no means a certainty and as always this election will come down to turnout and some last-minute ballot box decisions.
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election → come → turnout
B.C. surprised once before and the range of outcomes in this election includes a Conservative majority, a less likely NDP majority and the potential for the Greens to hold a balance of power.”
OneBC support is at two per cent, according to the poll and CentreBC has one per cent support.
These results exclude the 18 per cent (down seven points) of British Columbians who are undecided (12 per cent, down six points) or express no preference (seven per cent, unchanged).
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Currently, 15 per cent of voters say there is still a good chance they will change their minds and vote for another party’s candidate at the polling station.
Voter certainty is about equal for the NDP (14 per cent) and BC Conservatives (13 per cent), according to the poll.
Green Party support is less secure, with 27 per cent saying there is still a good chance they will change their minds when they go to vote.
When it comes to favourability ratings for the party leaders, NDP leader David Eby has remained stable during the campaign.
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Eby → surprise → campaign
The poll found that he is ending the campaign with 35 per cent favourable impressions and 40 per cent unfavourable impressions.
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he → find → impressions
Views of Green Party leader Emily Lowan have improved over the campaign and she has 30 per cent favourable impressions and 18 per cent unfavourable.
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she → improve → impressions
They have worsened over the campaign.
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They → worsen → campaign
They have also worsened over the campaign, according to the poll.
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They → worsen → poll
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Eby continues to lead Doerkson as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best premier, but the gap has narrowed since the last poll, Ipsos said.
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Ipsos → address → poll
The theme of “time for a change” continues to resonate with voters, according to the poll.
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theme → continue → poll
A majority, 53 per cent, of residents now believe it is time for another provincial party to take over.
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party → believe → residents
Thirty-one per cent continue to say that the Eby government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 16 per cent are undecided.
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cent → continue → election
These are the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Global BC from Oct. 20 to 22, 2026.
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These → conduct → 2026
For this survey, a sample of 1,260 adult British Columbians were surveyed online through sample sourced through the Ipsos panel (n=801) and by phone with live interviewers (n=459) using both cellphones and landlines.
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sample → survey → cellphones
Data was weighted by B.C. region, age, gender and education, in accordance with Census proportions.
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Data → weight → proportions
The precision of Ipsos polls, including online samples, is measured using a credibility interval.
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precision → include → interval
Questions asked only of online respondents are accurate to within ±4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population.
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interval → ask → population
All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
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surveys → include → error
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