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The Ballon d’Or betting continues to move in the favour of England skipper Harry Kane, who has emerged as a very strong favourite in the Ballon d’Or odds on betting sites ahead of Lamine Yamal to claim the award.
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who → continue → award
Kane is now as short as 1/4 to win European football’s top gong.
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Kane → win → gong
The winner of football’s biggest individual honour will be unveiled on Monday, October 26th at the London Palladium Theatre, and we’ve got the latest Ballon d’Or odds, which suggest Kane is now an overwhelming favourite to be handed the famous Golden Ball trophy.
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Kane → unveil → trophy
Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane have been taking up most of the Ballon d’Or betting book percentage over the last few months.
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Yamal → take → months
Kane opened as the favourite on football betting sites when the 30-man shortlist was announced.
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shortlist → open → sites
However, the pendulum swung in Yamal’s favour at the start of October following a surge of bets on the Spanish teenager, only for Kane to reclaim his spot at the head of the market, and now the Englishman is quite a bit clear of Yamal.
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Englishman → swing → Yamal
In fact, Kane is now an overwhelming favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or with betting odds as low as 1/4 in places.
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Kane → win → places
The odds suggest it’s a two-horse race between Yamal and Kane with Kylian Mbappe next in the betting at around 14/1.
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it → suggest → 14/1
Mbappe is perhaps rightly tightening in the market, with several big names in football suggesting the French International should be the main contender to Harry Kane’s impending award.
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International → tighten → award
2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri is still hanging around amongst the top five in the Ballon d’Or odds after his exploits for Spain in the World Cup but the Spanish International is possibly unsurprisingly on the drift.
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International → hang → drift
Rodri is now a similar price to PSG ace Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who has seen his Ballon d’Or price shorten in the run up to the award ceremony.
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price → see → ceremony
The favourites
Harry Kane
Kane would become only the fifth Englishman to win the Ballon d’Or should the bookies’ belief in him be justified.
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belief → become → him
Michael Owen was the last player from the UK to do it in 2001.
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Owen → do → 2001
Kane once again enjoyed a stellar campaign on the biggest stage for the Three Lions, scoring six times for the World Cup bronze medalists.
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Kane → enjoy → medalists
Kane has set the football world alight since his move from Tottenham to Bayern Munich.
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Kane → set → Munich
The 33-year-old was top scorer in the Bundesliga last term, bagging 36 league goals as Bayern clinched the title, with his scoring exploits also earning him the Golden Shoe as Europe’s top hitman.
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exploits → bag → hitman
The Englishman scored 14 times in last season’s Champions League.
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Englishman → score → League
Lamine Yamal
Yamal plays predominantly as a right winger for Barcelona and Spain.
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Yamal → play → Barcelona
He scored 24 goals in 45 appearances for Barca last season as they won La Liga.
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they → score → Liga
The 19-year-old then arguably underperformed at the World Cup after picking up an injury pre-tournament.
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old → underperform → tournament
He scored just once in 697 World Cup minutes for Spain and failed to even notch an assist.
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He → score → assist
Yamal winning the Ballon d’Or would be a major surprise to some.
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winning → win → some
The much-hyped youngster has indeed bagged 11 goals in all for his national side, and Yamal was second to Ousmane Dembele for last year’s Ballon d’Or award so don’t discount him.
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Yamal → hype → him
The French maestro played 769 minutes of France’s World Cup, amassing 10 goals and four assists, and claiming the Golden Boot for the second tournament in a row in the process.
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maestro → play → process
He had a ding-dong battle with Lionel Messi to be top goalscorer but pulled away in the end.
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He → have → end
Mbappe has been hit or miss at times but the 2025/26 season saw him at the top of his game.
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season → hit → game
Mbappe has finished his last two La Liga campaigns for Real Madrid as top scorer, winning the “Pichichi”.
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Mbappe → finish → Pichichi
He won the European Golden Shoe for the first time in his career with 31 league goals in the 2024/25 season and ended the 2025/26 campaign as top scorer in the Champions League with 15 goals.
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He → win → goals
Looking back at the recent history of Ballon d’Or winners suggests the bookmakers rarely get it wrong with who they place at the head of the market.
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they → look → market
Year | Winner | Odds |
2025 | Ousmane Dembele | 1/6 |
2024 | Rodri | 7/4 |
2023 | Lionel Messi | 1/9 |
2022 | Karim Benzema | 1/33 |
2021 | Lionel Messi | 4/11 |
Ballon d’Or best value bets
Lionel Messi
Winner of the prestigious award a record eight times, Messi never seems to get old and can’t be completely discounted here.
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Messi → seem → award
He was as good as ever in the summer when leading Argentina to another final where they lost out to eventual champions Spain.
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they → lead → Spain
The 39-year-old scored eight times and assisted four times, while playing over 850 minutes for La Albiceleste in North America.
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old → score → America
One final Ballon d’Or would be the icing on the cake of a glittering international career and who knows, he could get the sentimental vote, but the current Ballon d’Or odds tell a different story.
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odds → glitter → story
Rodri
Rodri was first in pass completion rate at the World Cup where he won the Golden Ball having been voted best player of the tournament for the champions.
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he → win → champions
After a stop-start season for Manchester City following a lengthy injury lay-off, the 6ft 3in defensive midfielder played 819 minutes for Spain and was a key cog in their winning machine.
Rodri, surprisingly, won the Ballon d’Or in 2024 and the 30-year-old moved home to Barcelona in the summer.
Michael Olise
Sometimes Olise makes the headlines for the wrong reasons but on the pitch his football certainly does the talking.
Olise won the award for most assists during the summer’s World Cup, breaking the previous record with seven assists recorded.
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Olise → stop → assists
The Frenchman also assisted 20 times in the Bundesliga last season for Bayern Munich and scored 15 times for the German champions.
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Frenchman → assist → champions
Olise is now priced around the 50/1 mark to pick up the gong.
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Olise → price → gong
Dark horses to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or
It seems strange to suggest that Ousmane Dembele and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are underdogs to win the Ballon d’Or 2026, with both players instrumental in PGS’s back-to-back Champions League victories.
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players → win → victories
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
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