Once Western Sydney International Airport opens on Sunday, the true strength of demand for flights from Australia’s newest airport will start to show.
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strength → open → airport
But success won’t happen overnight, aviation experts say.
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experts → happen → ?
The curfew-free airport is expected to benefit from Sydney Kingsford Smith Airport’s limits on capacity.
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airport → expect → capacity
But its growth may be held back by passengers’ unwillingness to try the new hub some 50 kilometres away from Sydney’s CBD, as well as airlines’ reluctance to fly there.
uncertain
growth → hold → CBD
Australia’s first newly built airport in more than half a century is launching at a time of spiralling costs for airlines amid surging fuel prices due to the war in the Middle East, and the kind of global uncertainty that makes market predictions difficult.
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predictions → build → uncertainty
But playing in its favour are Sydney Airport’s well-known issues with capacity, which are often worsened by its air traffic control staffing issues, inclement coastal weather conditions and a strict curfew, which prevents night take-offs and landings.
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which → play → offs
With those conflicting factors, it’s perhaps not surprising that only seven airlines have committed to fly out of WSI so far, averaging about six return flights a day, domestic and international routes combined.
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airlines → conflict → flights
‘Many big cities globally have two or more commercial airports.
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cities → have → airports
It was absolutely necessary here as well.’Former IATA business strategist Tony Laverghetta
Qatar Airways finally committed to flying to WSI this week, though not before late 2027.
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Airways → commit → 2027
With crude oil at more than $US100 a barrel, airlines can’t afford to fly uneconomical routes.
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airlines → afford → routes
High costs and a shortfall of new airframes have limited the availability of planes and pilots.
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costs → limit → planes
Perhaps for this reason, Qantas will run only four return flights per week to Brisbane and four flights per week to Melbourne when it starts to fly from WSI on March 28, 2027, using 95-seat QantasLink Embraer E190 aircraft.
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it → run → aircraft
Air New Zealand will fly three times weekly to WSI from Auckland.
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Zealand → fly → Auckland
After that, it depends on how well things go.
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things → depend → that
Senior aviation consultant Ian Guy says that if airlines make more money off their routes at WSI than elsewhere, they’ll stick with it.
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they → say → it
But if the routes are unprofitable, after a season or a couple of years they’ll to pull the flights.
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they → pull → flights
A look overseas offers examples of the dynamics starting to play out at WSI.
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look → offer → WSI
Secondary airports operating far from the city centres they nominally serve, tend to attract low-cost airlines that effectively “plant a flag” to watch the demand, says Guy, who is a director at Melbourne-based Tango 5 aviation consultancy.
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who → operate → consultancy
A carrier can then quickly scale up if demand supports it.
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demand → scale → it
Qantas-owned Jetstar has made the biggest commitment to WSI so far.
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Jetstar → own → WSI
Jetstar will fly up to 24 return services a week from Western Sydney, with up to 14 to Melbourne, daily services to the Gold Coast, and three a week to Brisbane.
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Jetstar → fly → Brisbane
Vietnam-based low-cost carrier Vietjet will start flying two return services a week to Ho Chi Minh City in January.
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Vietjet → base → January
The airline’s stablemate Vietjet Thailand is expected to begin flying four times a week to Bangkok in November 2027.
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stablemate → expect → November
In addition to Air New Zealand’s commitment, Singapore Airlines will have one daily return flight from WSI to Singapore Changi.
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Airlines → have → Changi
A $16 million Western Sydney International Take-Off Fund backed jointly by the airport and the NSW state government has been designed to help woo airlines to the new airport.
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Fund → back → airport
Yet what happens after the initial sweetener is a different matter, Guy says, and it’s possible that “once that subsidy falls away, the route doesn’t have the same economics and so it stops existing.”
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it → happen → economics
Ellis Taylor, Asia editor for aviation analytics company Cirium, expects the new airport uptake would be “a bit of a slower burn” but WSI’s ability to operate late at night and early in the morning adds “an interesting dynamic”.
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ability → expect → dynamic
‘More than just the poor man’s Sydney Airport’
WSI is “more than just the poor man’s Sydney Airport,” Taylor says, comparing its premise with when Jetstar began flying from Avalon in 2004.
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Jetstar → say → 2004
“It’s not really sort of seen as an alternative to the main airport as yet.
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It → see → airport
It’s more about opening up an additional demand point,” she says.
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she → ’ → point
And once that is done, the airport’s viability in the larger aviation market will be tested.
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viability → do → market
While WSI is built on the expectation of expanding commercial flights to Sydney’s west, Avalon was built in the 1950s for use by military planes and only turned into a commercial airport in the 1990s.
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Avalon → build → 1990s
Melbourne Tullamarine, Victoria’s primary airport, has plenty of capacity, hosts more than 40 airlines (including, from this month, Finnair) and operates without a curfew.
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Tullamarine → have → curfew
Avalon is operating against an unconstrained competitor.
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Avalon → operate → competitor
In turn, it has sought to specialise and tap the growing logistics and freight sectors to link Victoria to export markets in the Middle East.
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it → seek → East
The proximity of airports often shape where airlines base themselves.
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airlines → shape → themselves
In London, Heathrow is the premium airport, serving alongside smaller airports Gatwick, Stansted and Luton, which function as hubs for low-cost carriers such as easyJet, Ryanair, and Wizz Air.
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which → serve → easyJet
“If you really looked at the density of their flight operations...they have each picked particular airports to focus on,” says Guy.
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Guy → look → airports
A UK-based network planner with knowledge of the Australian market believes WSI will be a success, as it adds real international capacity to the city.
“It relieves Sydney’s peak-slot scarcity and it’s curfew-free, so carriers can build in the late-night and early morning departures that make European connections work” – a big advantage over Kingsford Smith, she points out.
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she → base → Smith
Western Sydney is also “a big, multicultural catchment with strong VFR [visiting friends and relatives] demand and family ties abroad”.
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Sydney → visit → demand
…and 24 more, not listed.
The Aporia
