A Liberal candidate in a key battleground seat has been caught out encouraging people to vote for One Nation in the upper house while campaigning in the electorate that is considered vulnerable to Pauline Hanson’s party.
asserted
that → catch → party
Five weeks out from the state election, the incident is a fresh headache for Opposition Leader Jess Wilson as she asks voters to elect a Coalition government outright in the face of Labor attacks tying the conservative political movements together.
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she → ask → movements
The Liberal Party has also been forced to intervene after a sitting MP planned to appear as a guest speaker at a fundraiser for an independent candidate, despite her party having endorsed a candidate to run in the same seat.
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party → force → seat
In a recording made last weekend, which has been obtained by The Age, the Liberal candidate for Sunbury Simmone Cottom was asked by a voter about her position on the possibility of a coalition with One Nation.
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candidate → make → Nation
“Both the leaders, [One Nation leader] Warren Pickering and Jess [Wilson] have said we want to try and win in our own right,” she replied.
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she → say → right
“A lot of people have asked me about preferences.
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lot → ask → preferences
That’s open until November 9 for people to nominate to be candidates and then our preferences will be done.”
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preferences → ’ → November
When pressed further, Cottom said: “I’m encouraging people to change the government.
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I → press → government
The voter then asked: “So you’re advocating One Nation?”
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you → ask → Nation
Cottom replied: “Lower house, Liberals, and if you really want One Nation, give them a go in the upper house.”
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you → reply → house
When the voter made it clear he was not interested in supporting Hanson’s party, Cottom focused more on her own party, reiterating that they wanted to “win in our own right”.
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they → make → right
“I personally don’t have [a relationship with One Nation] ...
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I → have → Nation
We believe that we can win and not need them.”
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we → believe → them
In a statement to The Age on Saturday, Cottom said she regretted her comments.
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she → say → comments
“I shouldn’t have said it,” she said.
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she → say → it
“It’s not our position.
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It → ’ → ?
We want Victorians voting Liberal and Nationals in both houses.”
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Victorians → want → houses
Wilson, who has faced repeated questions about how her party will deal with One Nation, has consistently told voters that the only way to remove the three-term Labor government is to vote for her Coalition MPs.
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way → face → MPs
As the major parties shift into campaign mode, The Age can also reveal that Liberal upper house MP Ann-Marie Hermans has been advertised as a guest speaker for a fundraiser for Caroline White – an independent candidate running in Clarinda – alongside Libertarian MP David Limbrick and Albert Park independent Adrian King.
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Hermans → shift → Limbrick
White is running against John Paganis, the Liberal candidate for the seat held by Labor’s Meng Heang Tak.
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White → run → Tak
“If I was John Paganis, I’d be super annoyed and super confused,” another Liberal candidate said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to detail internal matters.
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candidate → annoy → matters
Hermans’ attendance was cancelled on Saturday after The Age contacted the party to ask if it was appropriate.
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it → cancel → party
“Ann-Marie will not be attending this event,” a Liberal Party spokesperson said.
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spokesperson → attend → event
“She is supporting John Paganis, the Liberal candidate for Clarinda, and is focused on helping elect a Liberal and Nationals government on 28 November.”
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She → support → November
Hermans was contacted for comment.
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Hermans → contact → comment
White also ran for Clarinda in 2022 and preferenced the Liberal candidate, an arrangement the party matched.
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party → run → arrangement
Both put Labor’s candidate last on their how-to-vote cards.
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Both → put → cards
Cottom, the Sunbury candidate, has run for parliament twice before – in the same seat at the 2022 state election, and in the federal seat of Hawke at last year’s federal election.
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Cottom → run → election
In April 2025, members of the Plymouth Brethren Christian Church – formerly known as the Exclusive Brethren – were identified wearing Liberal T-shirts and assisting Cottom’s campaign at an early voting booth in Melton.
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members → know → Melton
Sunbury is currently held by Labor’s Josh Bull on a typically safe margin of 6.4 per cent, but it is considered in play as the government braces for a sizeable swing against them, particularly in such outer suburban electorates that are considered vulnerable amid the rise of One Nation.
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that → hold → Nation
The Age’s Resolve Political Monitor has One Nation with a primary vote of 23 per cent.
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Monitor → have → cent
If that is replicated in the upper house, Hanson’s party would be in a strong position to hold the balance of power, forcing whichever party that forms government to negotiate with them to pass legislation.
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that → replicate → legislation
Wilson has ruled out a formal coalition with One Nation, saying there would be “no deals”.
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Wilson → rule → Nation
But she has sidestepped questions about how she would deal with Hanson’s party in the event that she required the support of its MPs to form government.
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she → sidestep → government
In turn, Labor strategists have built their campaign around the claim that Wilson will not be able to claim power without One Nation’s support, using every media release and press conference to warn of the possibility of a “Liberal-One Nation” government.
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Wilson → build → government
The latest Resolve poll has the Coalition with a primary vote of 28 per cent and Labor on 25 per cent.
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poll → have → cent
These numbers would most likely deliver a change of government – given the Coalition is expected to be favoured by One Nation preferences – but it remains unclear whether Wilson could form a majority in her own right.
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Wilson → deliver → right
A primary vote under 30 per cent has traditionally been diabolical for a party seeking to govern in its own right, but the rise of One Nation has led to widespread uncertainty about the outcome of one of the nation’s first true three-cornered contests.
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rise → seek → contests
The final result in many seats will come down to which party runs third and where its preferences flow.
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preferences → come → seats
The May by-election in Nepean was the first Victorian example of how this phenomenon could play out.
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phenomenon → play → Nepean
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
