The Aporia · Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro about even ahead of election run-off: Poll

Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro about even ahead of election run-off: Poll

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Al Jazeera Staff. (2026, October 24). Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro about even ahead of election run-off: Poll. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/24/brazils-lula-and-bolsonaro-about-even-ahead-of-election-run-off-poll?traffic_source=rss

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Quick Summary

A CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday shows Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro nearly tied for the upcoming election run-off, with 45 percent and 46.3 percent support respectively. The poll surveyed 2,032 people from October 21 to October 23, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. In the final debate before voting day on Sunday, both candidates criticized each other’s policies regarding crime, debt, and living costs in Brazil.

Written by AI on 2026-10-24, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of October 24, 2026, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain nearly tied ahead of the presidential election run-off on Sunday. According to a CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday, Bolsonaro leads with 46.3% support compared to Lula's 45%, a slight shift from last week when the margin was slightly larger for Bolsonaro at 46.8% to Lula’s 45.9%. The poll surveyed 2,032 people between October 21 and October 23 with a 2.2 percentage point margin of error.

The final debate before the election saw candidates exchanging criticism over issues such as Brazil's economy, infrastructure, and regional development. Bolsonaro accused Lula of allowing organized crime to grow while failing to address rising costs for families.

Written for “Brazil Election Poll Shows Tie” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

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Claims extracted

sentences that state something as happening or true

Uncertain

17%

2 of 12 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")

Leaning

withheld

no quote in the article backed the model's score

Publisher signals

60/100

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Topics

Brazil Brazilian CNT Datafolha MDA

Subjects

Bolsonaro PERSON · 6× Brazil GPE · 5× Lula PERSON · 3× 3Lula PERSON · 1× Brazilian NORP · 1× CNT ORG · 1× Flavio Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Jair Bolsonaro PERSON · 1× Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva PERSON · 1× MDA ORG · 1×

Narrative

social media has become an election issue in Brazil’s presidential race - list 2 of 3Lula challenges Bolsonaro to release personal records before election - list 3 of 3Do abstaining voters hold the key to Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?

framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-24

🔮 The right-wing senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46.3 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for the leftist Lula, according to the poll released on Saturday.

2026-10-24 · Al Jazeera

Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro about even ahead of election run-off: Poll · assertive framing

Claims (12 extracted, 2 hedged)

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro remain about even on the eve of Sunday’s election run-off, shows a CNT/MDA poll. asserted

poll → remain → off

The right-wing senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46.3 percent of the vote compared with 45 percent for the leftist Lula, according to the poll released on Saturday. uncertain

senator → receive → Saturday

Last week, the poll showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent. asserted

Bolsonaro → show → percent

voters → become → election

MDA surveyed 2,032 people from October 21 to October 23, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. asserted

MDA → survey → points

The poll comes the day after the final debate before the presidential run-off. asserted

poll → come → off

The candidates questioned each other on Friday about Brazil’s economy, infrastructure and regional development. asserted

candidates → question → economy

Bolsonaro accused the incumbent of allowing organised crime to expand, driving families into debt and not addressing the higher cost of living. asserted

crime → accuse → living

“He doesn’t know what hunger is,” Brazil’s first working-class president said of Bolsonaro. asserted

president → know → Bolsonaro

“He doesn’t know Brazil.” asserted

He → know → Brazil

Sunday’s vote comes after Bolsonaro finished first in the initial round of voting on October 4 with 47 percent to Lula’s 45 percent. asserted

Bolsonaro → come → percent

A Datafolha institute survey published on Thursday suggested the pair are now tied with 50 percent support each, compared with Bolsonaro’s four-point lead in polls published two weeks ago. uncertain

pair → publish → polls