From army exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox to a stalled 7 October inquiry, the issues splitting voters have little to do with Gaza, Lebanon or Iran.
asserted
issues → stall → Gaza
Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday in the country’s first national election since Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack, a vote that is shaping up as a verdict on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
asserted
that → head → Netanyahu
Yet for a country that has spent three years fighting on several fronts, the campaign has been strikingly quiet on how those wars were fought.
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wars → spend → fronts
Israel’s conduct in Gaza, which led to an international arrest warrant for Netanyahu, has barely been debated.
asserted
which → lead → Netanyahu
Nor have its occupation of much of southern Lebanon and parts of Syria, or the two wars it launched against Iran.
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it → have → Iran
All enjoy broad support among Jewish Israelis.
asserted
All → enjoy → Israelis
The main contenders have instead argued over Netanyahu himself: his character, his responsibility for the security failures of 7 October, military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men and his 2023 attempt to overhaul the judiciary.
asserted
contenders → argue → judiciary
Both are dominated by parties that back Jewish settlement in the occupied West Bank and oppose a Palestinian state, and no leading candidate is calling for a revival of the peace process.
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candidate → dominate → process
Stickers bearing the faces of fallen soldiers line train stations, alongside fading yellow ribbons for the hostages, the last of whom came home under a ceasefire deal last year.
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last → bear → deal
According to the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), a Jerusalem-based think tank, around 68% of Jewish Israelis say their views on 7 October are central to how they will vote.
uncertain
they → accord → October
Among Arab citizens, the figure is 32%, with most naming crime as their main concern.
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most → name → concern
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has pointed to military gains against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran while placing blame for the 7 October failures on the security establishment.
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Netanyahu → serve → establishment
His critics say he has dodged accountability by blocking an official state inquiry.
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he → say → inquiry
They also accuse him of delaying a hostage deal and of failing to secure a decisive victory on any front.
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They → accuse → front
Who serves in the army?
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Who → serve → army
The issue that has stirred the most anger is conscription.
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that → stir → anger
Military service is compulsory for most Jewish Israelis, but Netanyahu’s coalitions have long depended on ultra-Orthodox parties that insist yeshiva students be exempt.
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students → depend → parties
Resentment has grown as reservists have been called up repeatedly and the army struggles with a manpower shortage.
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army → grow → shortage
Around 13,000 ultra-Orthodox men turn 18 each year, but fewer than one in ten enlist.
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ten → turn → 18
About a quarter of Jewish voters told the IDI the issue would weigh on their choice.
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issue → tell → choice
IDI president Yohanan Plesner said it was “probably the number one issue” for the anti-Netanyahu camp.
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it → say → camp
The IDI’s Tamar Hermann said many Israelis see military service as a “kind of permit to citizenship”.
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Israelis → say → citizenship
Netanyahu’s main challenger, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, has pledged to end the de facto exemptions.
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challenger → pledge → exemptions
Eisenkot, a centrist, lost his son and two nephews in the fighting in Gaza.
asserted
Eisenkot → lose → Gaza
Judicial overhaul fades as an issue
The judicial overhaul brought hundreds of thousands onto the streets in 2023 and left Israel deeply divided when Hamas attacked.
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Hamas → fade → Israel
Netanyahu cast it as a check on unelected judges.
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Netanyahu → cast → judges
Opponents saw a power grab by a leader under indictment on corruption charges, which he denies.
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he → see → which
After 7 October, much of that protest movement turned its energy towards demanding the hostages’ release.
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much → turn → release
Today, only 18% of Jewish Israelis say the overhaul will shape their vote, a sign of what Hermann described as “public fatigue”.
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Hermann → say → fatigue
It matters more on the left, where 22.5% cite it.
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% → matter → it
A law passed last year giving the government more say in judicial appointments will only take effect once the next Knesset is sworn in.
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Knesset → pass → effect
The opposition bloc has promised to scrap it.
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bloc → promise → it
Coalition arithmetic
Israelis vote for party lists rather than individual candidates, and no party is expected to come close to the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
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party → vote → Knesset
The next prime minister will be whoever can assemble a governing coalition.
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whoever → assemble → coalition
If no one can, Netanyahu will stay on as caretaker until yet another election.
asserted
Netanyahu → stay → election
More than a quarter of Jewish voters say the party leader is a decisive factor.
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leader → say → voters
Netanyahu’s backers see a seasoned statesman who has stood up to US presidents and refused concessions they believe would endanger Israel.
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they → see → Israel
His detractors see him as corrupt.
asserted
detractors → see → him
Eisenkot’s supporters cite his decades in uniform and his personal losses.
asserted
supporters → cite → uniform
The son of Moroccan Jewish immigrants, he would become Israel’s first prime minister of non-European heritage, though he has not campaigned on it.
asserted
he → become → it
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
