Caleb Renner, a young corn and soybean farmer from north-central Iowa, has voted for Donald Trump twice.
asserted
Renner → vote → Trump
A fifth-generation farmer, he comes from a state that has been fiercely loyal to the president, backing him with a growing margin at each election.
asserted
that → come → election
But on November 3, Renner will vote for Democrats for the first time.
asserted
Renner → vote → time
He doesn’t believe he’s alone in breaking from the president and the Republicans.
asserted
he → believe → president
“I would say Liberation Day was the beginning,” he says, referring to Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs on most US trading partners, including Australia.
asserted
he → say → Australia
“How he handles foreign trade is extremely damaging to farmers.
asserted
handles → handle → farmers
It all comes to a critical point with the Iran war.
asserted
It → come → war
That’s the most in-our-face, anti-campaign promise policy action that he could have taken …
uncertain
he → ’ → that
I feel very betrayed.”
asserted
I → feel → ?
‘It’s putting a Band-Aid on a bullet hole.’Farmer
asserted
It → put → hole
If there is a blue wave at these midterm elections, it will show up here in the American heartland – farmers and small-town folk hit particularly hard by rising fuel prices, tariffs and trade wars.
asserted
it → be → prices
Polls suggest something is afoot, but the extent is difficult to gauge, and their record of accuracy is patchy.
asserted
record → suggest → accuracy
The Cook Political Report rates four Midwest Senate races as toss-ups: Iowa, Kansas, Michigan and Ohio, along with Alaska, Texas and Maine.
asserted
Report → rat → Alaska
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control the chamber.
asserted
Democrats → need → chamber
He grew up in an area where people instinctively voted conservative; in 2024, he supported Trump “with hesitancy”, mostly because Trump was endorsed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr, whom he liked at the time.
asserted
he → grow → time
But now the president’s policies are having a material impact on his life.
asserted
policies → have → life
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has spiked the cost of fertiliser.
asserted
Disruption → spike → fertiliser
Trade disputes with China slowed down soybean sales.
asserted
disputes → slow → sales
The price of diesel has risen from below $US4 a gallon to more than $US6 ($8.55).
asserted
price → rise → US6
‘One news cycle, one tweet, one social media post, and it affects the markets greatly …
asserted
it → affect → markets
There’s no way to plan what’s going to happen.
asserted
what → ’ → ?
“Every single step of the harvest process relies on diesel.
asserted
step → rely → diesel
We’re not running EVs or gas-powered tractors,” Renner says.
asserted
Renner → run → EVs
“You’re basically 2x-ing one of our inputs, which is going to show up on our balance sheets at the end of the year after harvest.
asserted
which → e → harvest
Our margins are getting tighter, and the markets are not getting any more favourable.”
asserted
markets → get → ?
At a campaign rally in Kansas last week, Trump announced a $US8 billion aid package for farmers hit by fuel prices.
asserted
Trump → announce → prices
It followed a $US12 billion relief effort late last year to combat the impact of trade disputes.
asserted
It → follow → disputes
But the money won’t flow until after the election.
asserted
money → flow → election
Renner scoffs at the idea.
asserted
Renner → scoff → idea
“It’s putting a Band-Aid on a bullet hole,” he says.
asserted
he → put → hole
Nor does it work, he argues – the money just ends up with the banks and suppliers.
asserted
money → work → banks
“Then what happens next year is the input companies are going to say, well, farmers afforded that last year, so we can continue rolling out these outrageous prices for fertiliser, for seed, for chemicals.
asserted
we → happen → chemicals
All this does is inflate the farm economy.”
asserted
this → do → economy
The $US8 billion lifeline was welcomed by the American Farm Bureau Federation, a national agriculture lobby group.
asserted
lifeline → welcome → Federation
But to Renner, the ploy smells of election desperation.
asserted
ploy → smell → desperation
“I think he’s under the impression he’s going to buy back farmers’ votes if he throws money at us.
asserted
he → think → us
It’s honestly disrespectful.”
asserted
It → ’ → ?
Renner says he will vote for the Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Iowa, Josh Turek, and Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Rob Sand.
asserted
he → say → Iowa
But he plans to vote Republican in some local races – “ticket splitting”, as it’s known in the US.
asserted
it → plan → US
“If you are beholden to one party, then you’re not really a voter,” he says.
asserted
he → ’re → party
…and 54 more, not listed.
The Aporia
