Israel begins voting on Tuesday afternoon in a parliamentary election, its first since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, that shook the country and plunged the Middle East into turmoil.
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that → begin → turmoil
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power is at stake, with centrist rivals promising to usher in a new era, but it might take time before clear results are known.
uncertain
results → promise → time
What happens on election day?
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What → happen → day
Even so, turnout is usually high, reflecting the high levels of political engagement in society.
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turnout → reflect → society
In the last elections, 4.8 million of the country’s 6.8 million eligible voters showed up at the polls – a turnout rate of 71 per cent.
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million → show → cent
Even more people are expected to vote this year, reflecting the heightened stakes.
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people → expect → stakes
Unlike in Australia, where postal voting has become increasingly popular in recent elections, Israelis must vote in person on election day.
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Israelis → become → day
(Only those serving their nation overseas, like diplomats and defence personnel, can vote in advance by mail.)
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those → serve → mail
When will we know who won?
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who → know → ?
It is likely this will be known within a few hours of polls closing, but it could take days or even weeks to become clear.
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it → know → days
Voting starts at 7am in Israel (4pm AEDT) and ends at 10pm (6am Wednesday AEDT), when Israeli TV channels will air exit polls giving the first indications of the outcome.
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channels → start → outcome
The election results will then start coming in.
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results → come → ?
A clear picture may emerge quickly but if no party or group of parties has a clear parliamentary majority, it could take much longer.
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it → emerge → majority
The final tally is expected by October 30 and official election results are formally published a week after the election, on November 4.
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results → expect → November
Elections to the 120-seat Knesset are meant to be held every four years, but early elections have been frequent.
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elections → mean → Knesset
Crucially, voters vote for party lists rather than individual candidates.
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voters → vote → lists
The Knesset seats are allocated by proportional representation to national party lists, with parties needing to pass a threshold of 3.25 per cent of the national vote to secure seats.
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parties → allocate → seats
About a dozen parties are widely thought to have a chance of crossing the threshold, so the final tally and seat allocation will take time.
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tally → think → time
The key number to aim for is the 61 seats required to form a government, though leaders prefer a more substantial buffer to create a more durable coalition.
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leaders → aim → coalition
It is possible to govern in minority, but such a government would be even more fragile.
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government → govern → minority
What happens after the results are published?
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results → happen → ?
After the final tally is in, President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on whom they want as prime minister and then tap the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government.
That nominee has up to 42 days to form a government.
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nominee → consult → government
No single party in Israel has ever won an outright majority, so governments are formed by a coalition of parties, and negotiations on forming a government often take weeks.
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negotiations → win → weeks
Every Knesset seat counts and small parties can have a big impact by becoming kingmakers.
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parties → count → kingmakers
If the nominee fails, others can get a chance to try.
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others → fail → chance
If no government emerges, another election is called, with the present cabinet staying on as a caretaker government.
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cabinet → emerge → government
Investigation: James Packer pays $1.8m to law firm also defending Netanyahu
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Packer → pay → Netanyahu
Analysis: Desperate Netanyahu goes nuclear in bid to stay in power
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Netanyahu → go → power
‘National suicide’: The election issue tearing Israelis apart
- ‘It is ours’: The far-right Israeli settlers
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It → tear → Israelis
who want to build homes in Gaza
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who → want → Gaza
- ‘Save our country’: October 7 changed their lives.
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October → save → lives
Now they are running for office
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they → run → office
Matthew Knott and Reuters
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what → get → world
The Aporia
