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One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters

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Cite

View, T. H. (2026, October 27). One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters. The Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/one-nation-comes-for-nsw-and-labor-gets-the-jitters-20261027-p618v1.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Sydney Morning Herald · collected 2026-10-27 · by The Herald's View

Quick Summary

One Nation's rising popularity is reshaping the political landscape ahead of the March NSW election, posing a significant threat to Labor's government led by Premier Chris Minns. Internal polling indicates Labor could lose more than a dozen seats to One Nation in areas like the Hunter, South Coast, Central Coast, and southwest regions. Premier Minns has responded with substantial infrastructure investments, pledging $6.8 billion for train improvements on the South Coast line. Meanwhile, the Liberal Party remains cautious about forming alliances with One Nation while attempting to address issues that appeal to conservative voters.
Written by AI on 2026-10-27, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

The emergence of One Nation as a significant political force in New South Wales (NSW) is reshaping the landscape ahead of next March's state election, with Labor facing a serious threat to its governance. Internal polling shows that One Nation could pose enough of a challenge for Labor to lose more than a dozen seats and possibly be ousted after just one term. Premier Chris Minns has acknowledged this risk, focusing on One Nation leader Mike Newman as the primary challenger rather than the Liberal Party's Kellie Sloane. Vulnerable seats are located in regions like the Hunter, South Coast, Central Coast, and south-west of NSW. The shift is significant because it marks a new political reality where former Liberal figures such as Nathaniel Smith, Hollie Hughes, Katherine Deves, and Lou Amato have joined One Nation, intensifying its influence and unpredictability in the upcoming election.

Written for “One Nation In New South Wales” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 One Nation In New South Wales
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 9% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Daily Mail
Hedges 5 of 34 claims Outlet record 69/100
“Article A discusses a controversial cartoon resurfacing after an attack on Helen Haines, while Article B talks about One Nation's impact on NSW politics and potential election outcomes.”
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 2 of 24 claims Outlet record 67/100
“The articles describe different political events and contexts in Victoria and NSW, with no overlap in time or place.”
ABC News (AU)
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 5 of 42 claims Outlet record 67/100
“The articles discuss different timeframes and contexts for One Nation's impact on Australian politics; Article A focuses on NSW ahead of its March election, while Article B mentions both Victoria and NSW but highlights Chris Minns' recent comments.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
23
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
9%
2 of 23 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans right
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
61/100
The Sydney Morning Herald's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-27 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Sydney Morning Herald · 6070 article(s) · 15 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 15 correction(s)

Who wrote this

The Herald's View
32 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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🔮 Labor MPs have been told the party could lose more than a dozen seats and be bundled out after just one term of government.
2026-10-27 · assertive framing · One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters
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Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 32 articles by The Herald's View →

Topics

Labor Liberal Minns NSW One Nation

Subjects

One Nation ORG · 16× NSW GPE · 7× Labor ORG · 4× Liberal NORP · 3× Liberals NORP · 2× Minns GPE · 2× One Nation’s ORG · 2× Pauline Hanson’s PERSON · 1× South Australian NORP · 1× the National Party’s ORG · 1×

Narrative

Shadow police minister Anthony Roberts held the muddleheaded line on Tuesday, telling the ABC he was not worried about One Nation despite the conga line of Liberals including former state MP Nathaniel Smith, former Senator Hollie Hughes, former Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and former NSW upper house MP Lou Amato vying to be selected to stand for One Nation.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-27
🔮 Labor MPs have been told the party could lose more than a dozen seats and be bundled out after just one term of government.
2026-10-27 · The Sydney Morning Herald
One Nation comes for NSW and Labor gets the jitters · assertive framing

Claims (23 extracted, 2 hedged)

The clear and present emergence of One Nation makes next March’s NSW election capriciously unpredictable. asserted
election → make → Nation
It is also going to be unlike anything we’ve seen before. asserted
we → go → anything
Since Pauline Hanson’s popularity surged in opinion polls after the South Australian state election, One Nation had been the National Party’s big problem. asserted
Nation → surge → election
Now it’s coming for Labor’s NSW heartland. asserted
it → come → heartland
Labor internal polling shows One Nation is a genuine threat to the Minns government as officials warn of the potential for a One Nation/Liberal victory. asserted
officials → show → victory
Labor MPs have been told the party could lose more than a dozen seats and be bundled out after just one term of government. uncertain
party → tell → government
Seats in the Hunter, South Coast, Central Coast and south-west are considered particularly vulnerable. asserted
Seats → consider → Hunter
MPs in regional seats expect One Nation to be their most significant challenger on polling day rather than Liberal or Nationals candidates Premier Chris Minns on Tuesday shrugged off the threat of Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane, instead declaring his fight for the top job was with One Nation, and suggested NSW One Nation leader Mike Newman would either be opposition leader or premier. uncertain
Newman → expect → Nation
“One Nation are surging,” he told 2GB. asserted
he → surge → GB
“And they’re getting a big, big chunk of the vote.” asserted
they → get → vote
It’s little wonder, then, that Minns pledged $6.8 billion toward removing bottlenecks on the passenger train line to the South Coast and electrifying it all the way to Bomaderry over the next decade as part of a re-election undertaking. asserted
Minns → ’ → undertaking
Meanwhile, the Liberals continue to tip-toe around the possibility of sharing power. asserted
Liberals → continue → power
Sloane has formally ruled out entering into a coalition or formal deal with One Nation but adopted a nuanced and sometimes confused strategy of signalling shifts on contentious issues such as gun control to blunt One Nation’s appeal to conservative and regional voters. asserted
Sloane → rule → voters
Shadow police minister Anthony Roberts held the muddleheaded line on Tuesday, telling the ABC he was not worried about One Nation despite the conga line of Liberals including former state MP Nathaniel Smith, former Senator Hollie Hughes, former Warringah candidate Katherine Deves and former NSW upper house MP Lou Amato vying to be selected to stand for One Nation. asserted
line → hold → Nation
The November 28 Victorian state election undoubtedly will be a bellwether for One Nation’s electoral clout and chances of living up to the hype of entering a coalition. asserted
election → live → coalition
Polls suggest the Victorian Coalition is headed to victory without One Nation. asserted
Coalition → suggest → Nation
The Liberal leader Jess Wilson is following the playbook and ignoring One Nation: she won’t countenance One Nation leader Warren Pickering sharing the platform in a leaders debate with Labor Premier Ben Carroll. asserted
Pickering → follow → Carroll
In NSW, One Nation is gaining strength and momentum. asserted
Nation → gain → strength
The fact that so many members of the political class in NSW are jumping ship or flirting with One Nation suggest the party will be a serious contender. asserted
party → jump → Nation
This has huge ramifications for our state. asserted
This → have → state
The Herald has long considered One Nation a damaging force. asserted
Nation → consider → ?
For nearly 30 years, it has offered simple and popular solutions to complex problems. asserted
it → offer → problems
That is no way to run NSW. asserted
That → run → NSW
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