Last week I spoke to a senior Treasury Minister about today’s Budget.
asserted
I → speak → Budget
‘What you have to remember is there’s no such thing as a “small Budget”,' they said.
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they → remember → Budget
But it’s still going to be a significant moment’.
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it → go → ?
Because John Healey’s cautious economic incrementalism signals more clearly than ever that we are heading for a snap election in 2027.
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we → signal → 2027
The Chancellor was remarkably candid about the scale of the challenges facing the country.
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Chancellor → face → country
Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East had created massive global economic insecurity, he warned.
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he → create → insecurity
‘We did not want this war,’ he declared.
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he → want → war
‘We rejected calls from the leader of the opposition to jump two-footed into it.
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We → reject → it
It is a war that has driven up costs on British families and businesses.
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that → drive → families
Inflation, which was due to fall, has now risen, driven by higher oil prices.
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which → fall → prices
'
Ordinary working families are still being hammered by the cost-of-living crisis, he admitted.
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he → work → crisis
British businesses are struggling against unprecedented economic headwinds, he acknowledged.
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he → struggle → headwinds
Spiralling debt meant he had to raise additional taxes – albeit in ‘a balanced way’, he conceded.
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he → spiral → way
So taken in the round, it was a grim economic picture.
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it → take → round
And it clearly required hard choices – some tough medicine and radical thinking to get the economy back on track.
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it → require → track
But no hard choices were taken.
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choices → take → ?
The medicine turned out to be a spoonful of honey.
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medicine → turn → honey
And the radical, out-of-the-box thinking that was pledged by Andy Burnham in his party conference speech last month was nowhere to be seen.
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that → pledge → speech
John Healey’s cautious economic incrementalism signals more clearly than ever that we are heading for a snap election in 2027, writes Dan Hodges
The out-of-the-box thinking, which Andy Burnham pledged in his party conference speech last month, was nowhere to be seen in today's Budget
Instead, the economics were subordinated to some unashamedly populist politics.
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subordinated → signal → politics
Twenty million households in council tax bands A-D would be given a £100 pre-election bribe, paid directly into their bank account, he announced.
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he → give → account
Although the Chancellor obviously didn’t describe it as a bribe.
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Chancellor → describe → bribe
It was, he said, ‘energy support’.
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he → say → ?
There had been speculation Mr Healey would renege on the Prime Minister’s pledge to transfer the remaining £1.2billion surplus from the miners’ pension fund to the last of the miners.
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Healey → renege → miners
This would have flown in the face of his strategy of shoring up Labour’s left flank and created alarm amongst Labour MPs in marginal Red Wall seats.
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This → fly → seats
They, and the miners, needn’t have worried.
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They → worry → ?
Every single penny of the fund would be handed over, he declared, to loud cheers.
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he → hand → cheers
Military and defence experts had been equally alarmed by reports Mr Healey would shy away from his demand – backed up by his dramatic resignation as defence secretary – that defence spending be raised to 3 per cent of GDP by 2030.
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spending → alarm → 2030
Again, their concerns were laid to rest.
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concerns → lay → rest
The commitment would be honoured, he proclaimed.
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he → honour → ?
Though where the money would come from, he declined to say.
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he → come → where
That could wait for another day.
uncertain
That → wait → day
Over the past week, Mr Burnham has again attempted to convince the country he has no plans for a quick dash to the polls.
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he → attempt → polls
The VAT cut would be extended to July 2027, he revealed.
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he → extend → July
To make the books balance, or to make them marginally less unbalanced, he had identified a clear target.
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he → make → target
A 3 per cent bank surcharge would be introduced to ‘support ordinary people’, he announced.
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he → introduce → people
Then, looking directly at Kemi Badenoch, he fired the general election starting gun.
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he → look → gun
‘I challenge the leader of the opposition, does she support today our support for British families and British firms?’ he asked.
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he → challenge → families
‘And does she back the action we’re taking to pay for it?’
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we → back → it
It was a thinly disguised trap.
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It → disguise → ?
In terms of pre-election giveaways, what the Chancellor announced was relatively thin gruel.
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announced → announce → what
…and 25 more, not listed.
The Aporia
