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College football picks: Conference games are the closest they have been in at least a half century

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Olson, E. (2026, October 28). College football picks: Conference games are the closest they have been in at least a half century. Toronto Star. https://www.thestar.com/sports/football/college-football-picks-conference-games-are-the-closest-they-have-been-in-at-least-a-half-century/article_169a9544-14b2-55f3-95d9-7d54e54dda3c.html

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Toronto Star · collected 2026-10-28 · by Eric Olson

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Story summary

As of late October 2026, college football conference games have seen unprecedented parity with the most one-score games since at least 1973. There were 128 conference games decided by eight or fewer points through Week 8 this season, marking a significant increase from previous years. The average point differential in these matchups is only 13.9 points, the lowest since records began in 1973. Notably, the ACC leads with 51% of its games decided by single digits, followed closely by the Big Ten and SEC. This trend suggests a competitive landscape where upsets are more common than ever before, making each game unpredictable and exciting for fans and bettors alike.

Written for “College Football Picks And Predictions” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 College Football Picks And Predictions
Sports · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 7% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Fox News
Hedges 4 of 41 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of college football, with Article A focusing on a specific upcoming game between Ole Miss and Texas, while Article B discusses broader trends in conference games across the season.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 0 of 29 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss trends and upsets in college football but refer to different time periods and focus on distinct aspects of the season.”
New York Post
Hedges 1 of 7 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A discusses trends and statistics of conference games during a particular week in college football, while Article B provides rankings and analysis after Week 9.”
Fox News
Hedges 1 of 36 claims Outlet record 68/100
“Article A discusses overall trends in college football upsets and parity, while Article B focuses on an upcoming game between Arizona Wildcats and Texas Tech.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
29
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
7%
2 of 29 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
64/100
Toronto Star's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Sports
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-28 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Toronto Star · 11416 article(s) · 28 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 28 correction(s)
2026-10-26
Correction
2026-10-24
Correction
2026-10-07
Correction
2026-09-24
Correction

Who wrote this

Eric Olson
20 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Utah and Notre Dame joined Miami and Georgia as top-four seeds if the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket was based on The Associated Press Top 25 released Sunday and Kentucky would host a first-round game.
🔮 LINCOLN, Neb. (AP) — Chris Lawson scored the go-ahead touchdown on a 25-yard catch-and-run with 1:30 left and Alex McLaughlin returned Anthony Colandrea’s third interception of the game 48 yards for the clinching score as Washington came from behind to beat Nebraska 17-10 on Saturday night. The Huskies (5-3, 2-3 Big Ten) did little offensively until quarterback Demond Williams Jr. replaced Elijah Brown early in the fourth quarter. Williams and Lawson made the play of the game just before the Huskies took their first lead.
🔮 Gators could have QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) back or go with Tramell Jones again.
🔮 Georgia and Indiana would receive first-round byes in the College Football Playoff as top-four seeds on the 12-team bracket based on The Associated Press Top 25 released Sunday and Notre Dame and BYU would host first-round games.
🔮 College football fans may get a chance to catch their breath Saturday.
🔮 “Saturday’s a game we could have won.
🔮 Miami and BYU would hold the top two seeds on the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket based on The Associated Press Top 25 released Sunday and UCLA would make its first-ever appearance in the field.
🔮 The Hurricanes are set to take over the top poll spot for the first time since 2002 after beating rival Florida State 43-35 in a double-overtime thriller.
🔮 The Ducks brought in a highly regarded class of transfers to go with 14 returning starters, including a quarterback projected to be one of the first players taken in the 2027 NFL draft.
🔮 “The way we play, it’s maybe not all the time the coolest thing, the visual, but we’re going to try to be physical,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said.
Also by Eric Olson
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 20 articles by Eric Olson →

Topics

ACC BYU Georgia Miami UCLA

Subjects

BYU ORG · 5× Auburn ORG · 3× Cincinnati GPE · 3× Georgia GPE · 3× Mississippi GPE · 3× Texas GPE · 3× UCLA ORG · 3× ACC ORG · 2× Miami ORG · 2× Syracuse GPE · 2×

Narrative

No. 20 Northwestern (plus 3 1/2) at Oregon Chip Kelly, who has worked wonders as Northwestern’s first-year offensive coordinator, returns to Eugene to face the program he led to a 46-7 record from 2009-12 after two years as OC.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-28
🔮 Gators could have QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) back or go with Tramell Jones again.

Claims (29 extracted, 2 hedged)

The upsets keep coming, followed by “coachspeak” about parity in college football. asserted
upsets → come → football
The trendlines appear to back it up. asserted
trendlines → appear → it
All this is according to Sportradar. uncertain
this → accord → Sportradar
A total of 69 one-score conference games have been played in the Power Four so far this season, which means there is a lot of riveting football going on. asserted
which → play → football
No. 1 Miami (minus 14 1/2) at North Carolina Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney are the hottest things going right now and both are in the mix for the Heisman Trophy. asserted
both → go → Trophy
The Tar Heels’ middle-of-the-pack ACC defense shriveled in the fourth quarter against struggling Syracuse. asserted
defense → shrivel → Syracuse
No. 2 Ohio State (minus 6 1/2) at Southern California The Buckeyes go to the West Coast for their first game without Julian Sayin. asserted
Buckeyes → go → Sayin
Their defense is capable of carrying the load in this one. asserted
defense → carry → one
No. 17 Florida (plus 11 1/2) at No. 3 Georgia Georgia, coming off open date following the Auburn upset, hasn’t lost consecutive games since the 2018 season. asserted
Georgia → come → season
Gators could have QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) back or go with Tramell Jones again. uncertain
Gators → have → Jones
Pick: Georgia 27-17. Minnesota (plus 20 1/2) at No. 4 Indiana This seems like a big spread for a Hoosiers team that hasn’t scored more than 20 points in any of its last three games and has a quarterback who’s been banged up. asserted
who → seem → quarterback
No. 5 Notre Dame (minus 30) at Navy The Fighting Irish have had a couple weeks to stew over what happened at BYU and will take it out on an underperforming Navy defense. asserted
what → stew → defense
No. 6 Utah (minus 6 1/2) at Cincinnati The Holy War against No. 8 BYU is looming next week, but Cincinnati will get the Utes’ full attention after what the Bearcats did to Texas Tech last week. asserted
Bearcats → loom → Tech
Nevada at No. 7 UCLA (minus 22 1/2) UCLA steps out of conference to face a middling Mountain West team. asserted
UCLA → step → team
QB Ty Dieffenbach continues to build chemistry with the backing of the Big Ten’s best run game. asserted
Dieffenbach → continue → game
BYU is back home, in bounce-back mode and looking to get out to a fast start after two close games. asserted
BYU → bounce → games
The Longhorns calmed the waters in Austin with their win over Mississippi and won’t slip up against a spiraling Bulldogs team that lost QB Kamario Taylor for the season. asserted
that → calm → season
Auburn at No. 12 Mississippi (minus 13) Rebels’ playoff hopes dangling and RB Kewan Lacy (shoulder) is out. asserted
Lacy → dangle → ?
Expect Trinidad Chambliss, picked off three times by Texas, to be better against an Auburn defense that’s allowed over 700 yards passing over last two games. asserted
that → expect → games
No. 22 Arizona (plus 3 1/2) at No. 13 Texas Tech Wildcats riding momentum of five-game win streak into Lubbock, where they haven’t won since 1935. asserted
they → rid → 1935
Red Raiders have lost their mojo, and it showed at Cincinnati. asserted
it → lose → Cincinnati
Virginia at No. 14 Wake Forest (minus 12) Demon Deacons have won four straight, the last three by lopsided scores. asserted
Deacons → win → scores
Virginia hasn’t been getting much done on offense, but Tony Elliott gave QB Beau Pribula a vote of confidence this week. asserted
Elliott → get → confidence
Texas State (plus 11) at No. 20 Boise State Matchup of a couple young coaches whose stars are rising in Bobcats’ GJ Kinne and Broncos’ Spencer Danielson. asserted
stars → rise → Kinne
No. 20 Northwestern (plus 3 1/2) at Oregon Chip Kelly, who has worked wonders as Northwestern’s first-year offensive coordinator, returns to Eugene to face the program he led to a 46-7 record from 2009-12 after two years as OC. asserted
he → work → OC
No. 23 Missouri (minus 10) at Arkansas All-America RB Ahmad Hardy returned to practice this week, but Jamal Roberts will continue to be the bell cow for the Tigers. asserted
Roberts → return → Tigers
No. 24 Oklahoma State (minus 9 1/2) at Iowa State Cyclones have given up over 300 yards passing in two straight games. asserted
Cyclones → give → games
Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker has thrown for over 300 in six straight. asserted
Mestemaker → throw → six
No. 25 Wisconsin (plus 3 1/2) at Iowa Iowa has won four straight over the Badgers and outscored them 79-10 the last two meetings. asserted
Iowa → win → them
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