This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.
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story → publish → collaboration
The water was rising rapidly.
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water → rise → ?
It had already reached Cayni Ali’s waist.
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It → reach → waist
Her home, five meters from the flooded River Juba in southern Somalia, never stood a chance.
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home → flood → chance
Repeated airstrikes, said the mother of six, were pinning its population beside the rising river.
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mother → say → river
“The drones come all the time,” said the 27-year-old.
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old → come → ?
“We hear them constantly.
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We → hear → them
They kill animals, civilians.
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They → kill → animals
Asho Omar from Malenda, a village near Jilib, described “constant” airstrikes that had forced people towards the banks of the Juba.
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that → describe → Juba
“The airstrikes are everywhere; it is difficult to move.
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it → move → ?
So many people have been killed.”
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people → kill → ?
Their testimony offers a rare glimpse of life inside the stronghold of al-Shabaab, the Islamist militants who control 30 percent of Somalia.
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who → offer → Somalia
Closed off from the outside world, residents describe a city dealing with significant civilian casualties.
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residents → close → casualties
Bodies, some said, lay in the streets.
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some → say → streets
The ongoing conflict is a legally ambiguous, shadowy war coordinated by the United States in East Africa, in which there is little accountability for harm to Somali civilians.
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conflict → coordinate → civilians
The United States Africa Command (Africom) would not share “operational security” details of a seemingly accelerating campaign that has also raised questions over potential covert US strikes.
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that → share → strikes
Sources say the military strategy appears to be seeking to drown those living in al-Shabaab territory by “weaponizing” a rapidly strengthening El Niño, forecast to intensify Somalia’s rainy season from this month.
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strategy → say → month
“The airstrikes are forcing people to go close to the river.
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airstrikes → force → river
It’s an extremely aggressive offensive, exploiting El Niño as a weapon of war to push the population into flood-prone areas,” said a source monitoring the Juba floodplain in southern Somalia.
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source → ’ → Somalia
Pinning the population—which includes large numbers of women and children – on the river’s floodplain has raised concerns of large-scale deaths in the months ahead.
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which → pin → months
“The official line is that they are targeting military positions and al-Shabaab, but because al-Shabaab is embedded within the community, it’s difficult to avoid collateral damage,” added the source.
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source → target → damage
When El Niño last struck Somalia in 2023, it caused the worst floods seen in the country for a century, displacing more than 1.2 million people.
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it → strike → people
Analysts have questioned the ethics of the US military allegedly using mapping data from flood-prone areas—conceived to mitigate civilian casualties—to inflict harm.
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military → question → harm
Jethro Norman, a senior researcher with the Danish Institute for International Studies, said: “A weaponisation of El Niño is a reversal of process—using humanitarian remote sensing to inflict casualties rather than to mitigate harm.
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weaponisation → say → harm
You capture the cumulative impact of a sustained airstrikes campaign in an El Niño flooding context.”
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You → capture → context
US officials deny exploiting climatic factors.
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officials → deny → factors
A spokesperson said: “Africom does not target civilians, conduct operations for the purpose of displacing civilian populations, or use weather or flooding as a method of warfare.
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Africom → say → warfare
Africom targets lawful military objectives and takes feasible measures to mitigate civilian harm.”
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Africom → target → harm
Nevertheless, many wonder if the opportunity to weaken al-Shabaab using the weather was too tempting to ignore, offering a catastrophic drowning event blamed on a supercharged El Niño.
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opportunity → wonder → Niño
Like many cities, Jilib’s location has been found wanting in an era of extreme weather.
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location → find → weather
On a low-lying plain, the city is chronically vulnerable to flooding.
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city → lie → flooding
In 2023, vast swathes of farmland were submerged.
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swathes → submerge → farmland
Halimo Abdikadir from Kamsuuma, south of Jillib, described the destruction of her home, 6 miles (10km) from the river.
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Abdikadir → describe → river
“The waters came quickly at night—when they left, everything was mud.
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everything → come → night
A lot of animals drowned.”
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lot → drown → animals
Arbey Famu from Ahmed Yare, another village outside Jilib, expects this El Niño to be far worse than 2023: Her crops of maize and sorghum are underwater.
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crops → expect → maize
“In Jilib, there is big flooding already,” said the 70-year-old.
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old → be → Jilib
US defense officials will know the early indicators of El Niño’s impact in al-Shabaab’s heartland.
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officials → know → heartland
UN agencies say the Juba River basin is of “particular concern.”
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basin → say → concern
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), meanwhile, foresees “severe flooding.”
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Committee → foresee → flooding
…and 67 more, not listed.
The Aporia
