- Published
With less than a week to go until the US midterm elections, which will determine which party controls Congress for the next two years, more than 43 million Americans have already voted.
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Americans → publish → years
Data from the University of Florida Election Lab indicates that four to five million early votes have been cast each day, representing a much higher rate than in most previous elections.
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votes → indicate → elections
Texas has seen the highest above-average turnout rate so far, says Prof Mike McDonald, who runs the Election Lab database.
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who → see → database
Hispanic communities are also seeing a much higher turnout than usual.
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communities → see → turnout
Overall turnout appears on track to outpace 2020, or even 2018, which beat the 1914 record for overall turnout in a midterm election.
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which → appear → election
Texas has already surpassed its 2022 numbers by around 1.75 million voters, says McDonald.
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McDonald → surpass → voters
More than 5.8 million ballots have already been cast in the Lone Star state, which has emerged as a key battleground that could decide which party controls the Senate for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.
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party → cast → presidency
Data from states that require voters to register a political affiliation indicates an increase is votes cast by Democrats, while Republican early voting numbers remain generally similar to 2022.
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numbers → require → 2022
Early voting is also up among voters who chose to not register with a specific party, McDonald says, however the data does not show which candidates they chose.
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they → choose → candidates
Figures on Thursday, external show that 44% of early ballots have been cast by Democrats, and 31.2% by Republicans.
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% → show → Republicans
A further 24.7% were attributed to voters who had no party affiliation.
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who → attribute → affiliation
However, that's just for the roughly half of states that require voter affiliation.
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that → require → affiliation
Three states require voters to submit their race when they register - North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.
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they → require → race
Data from these states shows an increase in votes cast by Hispanic and black communities, while voting among white people is on par with 2022 early voting figures.
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voting → show → figures
"That makes sense because communities of colour are more frequently part of the Democratic coalition, and whites are more frequently part of the Republican coalition," McDonald says.
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McDonald → make → coalition
Texas does not require voters to provide party affiliation or race.
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Texas → require → affiliation
But the data still shows a surge in voting by some counties on the border with Mexico, which are comprised of more than 90% Hispanic people.
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which → show → people
"When I look at those counties, what I see is some of them are going to beat their 2022 turnout in just the early vote alone," says McDonald.
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McDonald → look → vote
Early voting has boomed in recent years, driven by the Covid pandemic when more states began offering early voting options, including both in-person and by mail.
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states → boom → mail
In the 2020 election, when voters were picking both the next president as well as their lawmakers, more than two-thirds of all ballots were cast early.
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thirds → pick → ballots
Half of those early votes were also cast by mail.
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Half → cast → mail
Voters increasingly prefer to vote in-person, even when voting early, says McDonald.
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McDonald → prefer → person
They are also returning their ballots earlier than in previous elections.
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They → return → elections
He adds that he believes this could be due to concerns about postal voting, but says there is not data to indicate what could be causing this.
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what → add → this
Postal votes are more likely to be disqualified due to errors, he notes, and says some voters could be concerned about meddling in the US Postal Service.
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voters → disqualify → Service
Early voting will taper off, as states start cutting off early voting as an option in the days before the election on Tuesday, 3 November.
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states → taper → Tuesday
The Aporia
