For now, Benjamin Netanyahu has managed to hold on to power after a stronger-then-expected performance in Israel’s elections.
asserted
Netanyahu → manage → elections
The country’s longest-serving prime minister, and one of the world’s most controversial leaders, defied the predictions of pollsters and markets with his performance on Tuesday.
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minister → serve → Tuesday
While he’s set to fall short of a majority, his bloc will likely win 53 seats in the 120-seat parliament, more than the 48 for the main opposition group headed by Gadi Eisenkot, a former general.
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bloc → set → Eisenkot
Netanyahu’s party, Likud, saw its vote drop from the last elections in 2022, but is still the most popular party this time around.
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vote → see → 2022
Election officials are yet to count hundreds of thousands of votes, but the result is broadly clear.
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result → count → votes
There’s a chance Netanyahu can convince some members of Eisenkot’s bloc to join him in a government.
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Netanyahu → ’ → government
Conversely, Eisenkot might form a coalition with Israel’s Arab parties or — less likely — he puts his animosity with Netanyahu aside and they rule together.
uncertain
they → form → Netanyahu
There’s a high likelihood all those efforts fail and Israel ends up going to the polls again in a few months.
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Israel → ’ → months
Netanyahu would “go into those elections certainly with an advantage,” Steven Cook, director of the Middle East program at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Bloomberg TV.
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Cook → go → TV
Polls had said Eisenkot’s bloc would probably win, even if it was unlikely to get a majority of seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
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it → say → Knesset
Prediction markets had Eisenkot as the favorite since July, giving him a roughly 50% chance of being the next prime minister, versus 30% for Netanyahu.
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markets → have → Netanyahu
And around half way through voting, it wasn’t looking good for the 77-year-old leader — blamed by many Israelis for intelligence failings that enabled the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023.
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that → look → October
Israel’s election commission said turnout was close to the highest on record, which analysts took to be bad for the incumbent far-right government and good for Eisenkot.
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analysts → say → Eisenkot
Eisenkot’s odds surged to almost 70% on Polymarket and the shekel headed for its biggest gain since mid-2025, a sign traders saw the opposition as having a clear pathway to forming the next government.
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traders → surge → government
Netanyahu sounded almost desperate, taking to social media with incendiary comments about Arabs voting in huge numbers.
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Netanyahu → sound → numbers
He told his supporters Israel would cease to be a Jewish state if they didn’t rush to the polls.
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they → tell → polls
“Make sure everyone comes: grandpa, grandma, uncle and aunt, the neighbours,” Netanyahu said.
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Netanyahu → make → ?
“Nobody stays home.
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Nobody → stay → ?
The message from Netanyahu, who’s led Israel for almost 20 years in total, may have worked.
uncertain
who → lead → total
He’s likely to take his bloc’s performance as an endorsement of continued aggression against Iran and expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.
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He → ’ → Bank
“There was clearly a surge at the end that gave a significant advantage to Netanyahu and his coalition,” said Cook.
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Cook → be → Netanyahu
The first exit polls after voting closed at 10 p.m. looked fairly good for Eisenkot but worsened as they were updated.
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they → close → Eisenkot
Forecasts that he was set to win, albeit without a majority, turned into a tie and then a victory for Netanyahu.
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he → set → Netanyahu
Netanyahu waited until around 3:15 a.m. before speaking to his supporters in Jerusalem.
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Netanyahu → wait → Jerusalem
He appeared jubilant and called officials from his Likud party on to the stage to sing the national anthem, after declaring “a clear, decisive” win.
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He → appear → win
That looks like an exaggeration and there’s no guarantee he will be the head of the next government, whenever it’s formed.
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it → look → government
But his position is looking far stronger than most people expected.
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people → look → ?
The Aporia
