It’s coming to you a day late because yesterday was one of those days.
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yesterday → come → days
We’re in a mode now where we’re sort of a tapas restaurant and are going to deliver posts to you as they become available from the overburdened kitchen.
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they → ’re → kitchen
We’ll try to space things out, but it’s possible that dishes will pile up and there will be some dry spells, or that you’ll get more than one newsletter or more than one FLIPR update in a day.
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you → try → day
The one constraint that’s absolutely locked into place is our Election Day coverage:
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that → lock → place
In line with FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin tradition, shortly after midnight on Tuesday, we’ll run the final FLIPR update of the season and post our final overview of the race.1
Then we’ll lie in bed “sleeping” as we refresh Twitter constantly.
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we → run → Twitter
We’ll spend the afternoon nervously pacing around while trying to ignore anecdotal reports about turnout in Waukesha County.
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We → spend → County
Then starting at roughly 5:30 pm, we’ll be co-hosting an Election Night video stream and liveblog with The Argument, Galen Druke’s GD Politics and Matt Yglesias’s Slow Boring, plus plenty of special guests.
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we → start → guests
Like it says on the invites to cool parties (not that I’d know anything about those) we’ll go from 5:30 until “late,” although we’ll preserve some energy if the outcome is ambiguous and it looks like vote-counting has slowed to a crawl.
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counting → say → crawl
We tested the liveblogging tech last night, and it went relatively smoothly.
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it → test → tech
We’re super excited about this feature, and grateful to Substack for developing it.
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We → ’re → it
We hope to employ it for things other than Tuesday too, like big political or sports nights.
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We → hope → nights
The intent for Election Night is for the video stream to be free, while the liveblog, where we’ll get a bit more granular, will be for paying subscribers.2
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we → get → subscribers.2
We really hope that you’ll join us!
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you → hope → us
Meanwhile, here’s the YouTube of the Still Counting episode:
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YouTube → ’ → episode
And here’s the audio.
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audio → ’ → ?
We’re very grateful for any reviews, comments, likes and subscribes you might spare.
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you → ’re → reviews
When FLIPR launched in August, I wrote that this wasn’t an election that filled me with a sense of “existential dread,” compared with… well, most of the recent ones.
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that → launch → ones
We knew both background conditions and midterm history were on Democrats’ side.
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conditions → know → side
It was safe to assume Democrats were clear favorites to flip the House — you didn’t need FLIPR to tell you that, really, considering that Republicans started out with such a small majority — along with a number of governorships and state legislatures.
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Republicans → assume → governorships
But in the Senate, we were caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place, since the battlegrounds required for a Democratic majority were being contested in very red terrain.
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battlegrounds → catch → terrain
Were Democrats really going to win Texas?
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Democrats → go → Texas
FLIPR initially forecasted the Senate odds at close to 50/50.
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FLIPR → forecast → 50/50
As in 2024, that had seemed to make this election something of a low-stakes affair for the model.
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election → seem → model
28,000 lines of code, and all FLIPR was really saying is “well, who knows?”
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who → say → code
Then, within a couple of weeks of Labor Day, there was some kind of phase change, with Democrats gaining 2 to 3 points on the generic ballot.
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Democrats → be → ballot
There were several logical reasons for this: rising gas prices, further declines in Trump approval, growing evidence of a Democratic enthusiasm advantage, and perhaps increased public concern about AI, an issue where Trump is on the wrong side of the consensus.
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Trump → be → consensus
So we’re no longer in the safe, nothing-ventured, nothing-gained “toss-up” zone.
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we → ’re → zone
Democrats moved up to being roughly 3-to-1 favorites in FLIPR, and they’ve basically remained there for a few weeks now.
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they → move → weeks
If you squint, there’s actually been the slightest recovery for Republicans on the generic ballot — but I’d argue that state and district polls have, if anything, been getting better for Democrats, like in a set of CNN polls yesterday morning that had them winning Kansas by 4 points and Texas by 6 (!).
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them → squint → 6
Even South Carolina might be in play, a flip I was (and to some degree remain) skeptical about.
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I → remain → degree
Well, look at the New York Times polling database, where we get most of FLIPR’s data from, and search for any poll showing “Republican sponsor.”
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we → look → sponsor
The GOP-commissioned polls3 imply a Senate map that is at best a toss-up for Republicans, but really leaning D, along with deep prospective gains for Democrats in the House and bad results for Republicans in swing-state governorships.
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that → commission → governorships
In a twist that I’m not sure I’ve seen before, Republican “vibes” about this election — especially if you adjust those partisan polls for the usual partisan bias4 — almost seem to imply a worse outcome for Republicans than Democratic ones.
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you → ’m → ones
But just look at where Republicans are spending money: it implies a deeply defensive, almost “prevent defense” posture.
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it → look → posture
Or look at how Democrats are trying to expand the map in the House.
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Democrats → look → House
I don’t have as much time to go into a deep-dive about the psychology here as I’d like.
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I → have → psychology
But I think Democrats are treating the possibility of flipping the Senate as "found money.”
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Democrats → think → money
They’re optimistic-ish, but they don’t want to get their hopes up too much.
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they → ’re → hopes
It’s easy to understand why:
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It → ’ → ?
Still, it’s one thing to take a healthy attitude of “hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst,” and another to actually have to put odds on the outcome, as FLIPR and people trading at prediction markets do.
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FLIPR → ’ → markets
…and 80 more, not listed.
The Aporia
