In the mountains of Papua New Guinea, months of dry weather are producing a seemingly unlikely threat: frost.
asserted
months → produce → threat
Anthony Morant lives in Kosipe, a village in the Goilala district of Central Province, where freezing nights followed by intense sunshine have devastated local food gardens.
asserted
nights → live → gardens
"The frost continues to fall every night," he said.
asserted
he → continue → ?
"When the sun rises in the morning, it burns out the crops …
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it → rise → crops
we're going into the fourth month now, and all the current crops are gone."
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crops → go → month
Drought, crop-destroying frost and water shortages are not unheard of during El Niño in the western Pacific.
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Drought → destroy → Pacific
But the severe conditions and potential magnitude of this particular event are causing alarm.
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conditions → cause → alarm
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology says Pacific Ocean temperatures could climb beyond the highest levels observed since reliable records began in 1950.
uncertain
records → say → 1950
Across PNG, communities are already reporting destroyed crops, shrinking rivers and growing shortages of food and drinking water.
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communities → report → food
Food shortages are highly localised so far, but there are concerns they could become widespread as the El Niño worsens.
uncertain
Niño → be → ?
In June, residents of Upper Mendi in the Southern Highlands said unusually heavy frost had destroyed taro, sweet potato, bananas and sugar cane crops.
asserted
frost → say → crops
Similar images elsewhere in the country show frost-burnt crops, dwindling water supplies and boats stranded by receding rivers, including the vital Fly River transport route in Western Province.
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images → show → Province
For communities already facing poor transport links and limited access to government services, some fear the dry spell could become a food and water crisis.
uncertain
spell → face → services
Authorities meanwhile are warning that failed food crops could lead to social unrest.
uncertain
crops → warn → unrest
A slow-moving disaster
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
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Niño → move → Ocean
As the world continues to emit record amounts of greenhouse gases and temperatures rise, research has suggested the natural swings between La Niña and El Niño are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change.
uncertain
swings → continue → change
While it is not entirely clear what is driving the intensity of this year's event, Monash University adjunct professor and climate councillor Andrew Watkins said warming global temperatures could be contributing.
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temperatures → drive → event
"Climate change basically means that we're heating up the atmosphere, but about 90 per cent of that heat actually gets driven into the oceans," he said.
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he → mean → oceans
In the Pacific, El Niño typically returns every few years, generally bringing hotter and drier weather.
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Niño → return → weather
The dry conditions can wreak havoc in parts of PNG, where four in five people depend on agriculture for their livelihoods — much of it subsistence or semi-subsistence farming.
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much → wreak → it
But in Kosipe, it is not just food crops that are affected.
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that → affect → Kosipe
Mr Morant said the situation had impacted schools, with schoolteachers forced to leave the classroom so they could forage for food and secure supplies for the community.
uncertain
they → say → community
"The situation on the ground has gone from bad to worse,"he said.
asserted
situation → go → worse,"he
"Now that both teachers are down here, that means the schoolchildren are affected."
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schoolchildren → mean → ?
Mr Morant said the community has enough food to survive for now, but it desperately needs rain.
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it → say → rain
Experts fear the community's troubles may be reflective of a broader issue — one that may take months to emerge in other parts of PNG.
uncertain
that → fear → PNG
Wilson Thompson, president of the PNG Farmers and Settlers Association, said the full consequences of failed crops may not become fully apparent until months later, as areas still receiving regular rain begin to dry up.
uncertain
areas → say → rain
He said crops planted in June were unlikely to produce a harvest, while earlier plantings could yield less than half, and in some cases only a quarter, of what farmers expected.
uncertain
farmers → say → what
Police are also warning that deepening shortages could contribute to crime and civil disorder between communities.
uncertain
shortages → warn → communities
Internal Security and Police Minister Sir John Pundari said police had been instructed to come down hard on criminals in areas where pressure on water and food could increase tensions.
uncertain
pressure → say → tensions
The PNG government meanwhile has allocated an additional 500 million kina ($157 million) to its El Niño response.
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government → allocate → response
Prime Minister James Marape in June advised local leaders to identify water sources, vulnerable communities and food-security risks so they could respond quickly.
uncertain
they → advise → sources
"We have asked provinces and districts to take ownership of this disaster that may happen and have a localised approach," he said.
uncertain
he → ask → approach
Kachen Wongsathapornchai, from the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation in PNG, said those preparations had begun in some of the worst-affected areas.
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preparations → say → areas
But Mr Thompson said the advice was not reaching remote communities without regular access to newspapers or other media.
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advice → say → newspapers
Taking warnings from kitchen to kitchen
Elsewhere in the Pacific, communities that rely heavily on their gardens are also feeling the effects.
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that → take → effects
In Vanuatu, where as much as 80 per cent of the population relies on subsistence agriculture, communities are also reporting damage to their gardens.
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communities → rely → gardens
Market vendors say island cabbage is dying, banana trees are producing poor-quality fruit, and dry conditions are increasing the risk of fires burning through food crops.
asserted
conditions → say → crops
Northern parts of Vanuatu are expected to receive significantly below-average rainfall, threatening islands that rely heavily on rainwater catchments.
asserted
that → expect → catchments
Government agencies are holding weekly meetings with sectors including water and tourism, while community organisations are carrying warnings into some of the country's most isolated areas.
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organisations → hold → areas
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia