- Published
The race for a US Senate seat in Texas may prove crucial in determining which party controls Congress next year – a significant prize in its own right - but for both parties it represents so much more than that.
uncertain
it → publish → that
For the Democrats, their losing streak in statewide elections now stretches back more than three decades.
asserted
streak → lose → decades
But polls suggest their candidate, 37-year-old James Talarico, may be on the verge of breaking through and turning a Texas Senate seat blue for the first time since 1988.
uncertain
candidate → suggest → 1988
"If the Democrats do pull it off, I think it's going to cause a lot of soul searching and a lot of psychological damage to the Republican Party in Texas and nationwide," said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas-based Republican campaign strategist.
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Steinhauser → pull → Texas
These dramatic stakes help explain how this Senate race has rocketed to become the most expensive in US history, with total spending reaching more than half a billion dollars.
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race → help → dollars
At the Fiesta Center in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday night, the line to see the softly spoken former teacher, who studied to be a Christian minister before entering politics, stretched around the building and down the wide parking lot to a busy road.
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who → see → road
In this dusty western plains town of about 250,000, which voted overwhelmingly for President Donald Trump two years ago, a visit from a major Democratic candidate on the eve of an election was unusual.
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visit → vote → election
"It's just so amazing to watch," said Aaron Gonzalez, the Democratic Party chair for Hockley County, which borders Lubbock.
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which → watch → Lubbock
When Talarico took the stage before an estimated 3,000 supporters – with another thousand listening on speakers outside - his pitch was a familiar one for many national Democrats this year, albeit with a Texas twist.
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pitch → take → twist
He railed against a conservative political establishment that he said is insensitive to the economic hardship of average Americans.
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he → rail → Americans
He condemned the corrosive influence of big money in politics.
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He → condemn → politics
And he promised to advance a "comprehensive anti-corruption agenda" in the Senate.
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he → promise → Senate
"Texans are ready for change," he said.
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he → say → change
"We are done with the extremism and the corruption.
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We → do → extremism
We're done with the politics of division, and we are ready for something new."
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we → do → something
The slogan for his final two weeks of campaigning – "clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose" – is taken from Friday Night Lights, a popular early 2000s TV show about a plucky small-town Texas high school football team.
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slogan → lose → team
His music playlist leans heavily on twangy Texas country music.
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playlist → lean → music
He celebrates Texas breakfast tacos, quotes legendary Texas singer-songwriter Lyle Lovett and frequently mentions that his ties to the state go back eight generations.
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ties → celebrate → state
In the Lubbock audience, Andrew Robinson, a student from nearby Texas Tech University, liked what he heard.
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he → like → what
But the 26-year-old's optimism was tempered by an entire lifetime spent watching Democrats try, and fail, to get a toehold in the state.
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Democrats → temper → state
"A Talarico win would mean so much," he said.
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he → mean → much
"I haven't been keen on wanting to stay in Texas.
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I → want → Texas
And if the government were to change, it could give me a reason."
For Republicans, a Democratic win in Texas would have a very different meaning.
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win → change → meaning
At roughly the same time Talarico was addressing his supporters in the Fiesta Center, Trump – alongside the Republican Party's Senate candidate Ken Paxton – was just a few miles away, in a venue twice the size.
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Trump → address → venue
"If you go out and vote, we're going to have a tremendous win in Texas," the president told the crowd.
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president → go → crowd
Trump's visit to reliably-Republican Lubbock suggests the party is concerned about turnout even in the most conservative portions of the state.
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party → suggest → state
It is a worry that has been echoed by other Texas Republicans.
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that → echo → Republicans
"Understand, we could lose Texas," Texas Senator Ted Cruz said in his podcast on Friday.
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Cruz → understand → Friday
"The Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans."
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Democrats → turn → Republicans
Don Huffines, who is running for election as the state's chief financial officer, issued an even more dire warning.
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who → run → warning
"Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America," he posted on X.
"When the foundation breaks, it all falls apart.
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it → post → X.
When we lose Texas, we lose the USA."
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we → lose → USA
For weeks now, party leaders have been warning that a liberal breakthrough in the Lone Star State could have dire consequences.
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breakthrough → warn → consequences
They fear a Talarico win would motivate more local Democrats to run for statewide and federal offices.
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win → fear → offices
Better quality candidates with more funding could lead to a snowball effect similar to the Democratic inroads seen in other southern states, such as Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia.
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candidates → lead → Georgia
"I think that it's pretty clear that Republicans, especially candidates, consultants, operatives, and others who are active in the party, see that this is a real threat," said Steinhauser.
asserted
Steinhauser → think → party
"The days of waving this off and saying that Texas would never turn blue are over."
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Texas → wave → this
For the Texas Senate race to come to the point where recent polls suggest Talarico has a slim but stable lead has required a unique confluence of events and political dynamics – a "perfect storm", in the words of Steinhauser.
asserted
Talarico → come → Steinhauser
"Everything that could go well for the Democrats is going well," he said, "and everything that could go badly for the Republicans is going badly.
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that → go → Republicans
But it is also a whirlwind that, in a significant part, has been sown over the past year by Trump himself.
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that → sow → Trump
…and 41 more, not listed.
The Aporia
