The US Republican Party is entering the midterm elections with Donald Trump's administration seemingly unable to either win or diplomatically resolve the Iran war.
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administration → enter → war
If the Republicans lose control of the US Congress, the administration will have to navigate an entirely different political landscape for the rest of Trump's second term, but the course of the war is not decided just in Washington — or in Tehran.
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course → lose → Tehran
Seeking to identify key factors that could tip the balance towards war or peace in Iran, DW spoke with Omid Memarian of DAWN, a Washington-based think tank focused on reforming the US's Middle East policy; the Finland-based political scientist Leila Morovati; and Babak Rezaeedaryakenari, a professor of international relations at Leiden University in the Netherlands.
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DW → seek → Netherlands
US midterms: Is Trump set for more scrutiny?
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Trump → set → scrutiny
A Democratic victory would push Trump to focus more on domestic issues and would likely expose the financial costs of the war in the US Congress, Memarian told DW.
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Memarian → push → DW
However, Trump could continue limited strikes on Iran without formally declaring war.
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Trump → continue → war
Memarian said Trump would seek a way out that "saves face" after Tuesday's election.
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that → say → election
With Trump, Memarian said, Iran is engaged in a "big gamble with someone who does not behave like a conventional politician."
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who → say → politician
This increases the risk of renewed attacks.
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This → increase → attacks
Rezaeedaryakenari made a similar point: "The president has broad authority and freedom of action, especially in foreign policy and the conduct of military operations.
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president → make → operations
A Republican defeat, even with increased pressure from Congress, doesn't necessarily stop new attacks."
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defeat → increase → attacks
2. Deadlock in Israel puts pressure on Netanyahu
Israel's October 27 election ended in deadlock.
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election → put → deadlock
Neither the coalition around incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, nor the camp supporting former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot managed to secure an outright majority.
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coalition → support → majority
Memarian said the political uncertainty could push Netanyahu to act on major decisions while he still wields power — making the transition period the "most fragile and dangerous" for renewed escalation.
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period → say → escalation
A change of government in Israel would not fundamentally alter Israel's Iran policy, Memarian said.
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Memarian → alter → policy
Netanyahu's main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, "may be more deferential to America" and coordinate more closely with Washington.
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rival → coordinate → Washington
But ties with Trump are personal, and Eisenkot "certainly won't be like Netanyahu, who could sell any plan or scenario to Trump."
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who → sell → Trump
Rezaeedaryakenari said Israel's security concerns about Iran "are not limited to Netanyahu himself."
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concerns → say → Netanyahu
A new government could change the timing of a confrontation and coordination with Washington, but the security establishment and ruling coalition would also shape the risk of an attack, he said.
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he → change → attack
3. Nuclear impasse: 'The ladder of tension'
Iran's nuclear program remains the biggest open issue between the governments, with the US rejecting the Iranian narrative that the program is meant only for civilian use.
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program → remain → use
But the two sides are also at odds on how the talks themselves should be set up, Memarian said.
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Memarian → set → odds
"The US wants negotiations to start not only with a focus on Iran's nuclear program, but with concessions right at the outset," he said.
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he → want → outset
Iran seeks the lifting of sanctions and the release of frozen assets before nuclear talks begin.
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talks → seek → assets
If the sides don't move closer, Memarian warns, the odds of a renewed war rise.
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odds → move → war
Until the sides agree on an agenda, Memarian said, they are likely to keep "climbing the ladder of tension."
Morovati, a Finland-based political analyst, said the nuclear program was "the crux" of the standoff.
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program → agree → standoff
Iran's government sees it as a survival guarantee and bargaining chip, she said.
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she → see → guarantee
In turn, Washington fears that a nuclear Iran would upend its security calculations and long-term strategy for the Middle East and beyond, which is why it insists on putting the issue on the table first.
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it → fear → table
Before the United States and Israel launched the war in late February, about 20% of the world's oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
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% → launch → Hormuz
Iran has since drastically cut on the energy exports through the naval chokepoint, using at as leverage on US and Israel.
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Iran → cut → US
But, Memarian said, Iran's restrictions in the strait won't trigger escalation on their own.
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restrictions → say → own
Should US officials decide that a broader attack is needed to change Iran's calculations, any incident could serve as a pretext, Memarian said.
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Memarian → decide → pretext
If Washington considers the risks too high, it may opt for an economic blockade while keeping negotiations on the table.
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it → consider → table
In that scenario, "even occasional tensions in the Strait of Hormuz won't pull America into war," according to the US-based analyst.
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tensions → pull → analyst
The Houthis in Yemen: Iran's allies, not subordinates
The Houthi rebels in Yemen have also been targeting energy exports on the Red Sea — including attacks on Saudi cities and infrastructure.
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rebels → target → cities
But Memarian notes the Yemeni rebels' roots and struggle are "entirely domestic and organic" despite their ideological closeness to Tehran.
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roots → note → Tehran
Memarian said the Houthis made "pragmatic calculations" and their actions did not necessarily translate into an escalation between Iran and the United States.
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actions → say → Iran
Still, the United States could use the rebels' action as a pretext to strike Iran again.
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States → use → Iran
Rezaeedaryakenari offered a slightly different assessment.
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Rezaeedaryakenari → offer → assessment
Houthi attacks on shipping and on countries in the region, he says, "can both widen the war and accelerate coalition-building against the Islamic Republic."
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he → say → Republic
Countries that don't want war with Tehran "may turn to closer military cooperation to protect their trade and security."
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that → want → trade
…and 27 more, not listed.
The Aporia
