As Australians brace for another interest rate rise this afternoon, Anthony Albanese is whooping it up overseas.
asserted
Albanese → brace → it
Jim Chalmers will be left at home explaining the latest hit to household budgets.
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Chalmers → leave → budgets
The Treasurer has made his fair share of mistakes.
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Treasurer → make → mistakes
Allowing the absent PM to escape responsibility for the economic woes upon us would be another one.
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PM → allow → us
Albo enjoys the authority to approve spending, veto savings and determine how much political pain his government will tolerate.
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government → enjoy → pain
As we heard from ‘sources close to the Treasurer’ last week, Jim gets overruled regularly when it comes to such decision-making.
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it → hear → making
Yet increasingly it is Chalmers who is left to explain the consequences.
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who → leave → consequences
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest cash-rate decision at 2.30pm on Tuesday, with markets widely expecting another quarter-point increase.
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markets → announce → increase
Albanese is in Antigua and Barbuda attending a Commonwealth leaders' summit, leaving Jim Chalmers at home to manage the political fallout.
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Albanese → attend → fallout
When there is money to announce, Albo is always available, keen to take the credit.
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Albo → be → credit
When there is bad news that needs to be delicately explained away, he often goes missing.
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he → be → ?
It’s an uncomfortable arrangement for Chalmers, and the recent ATO debacle highlighted how swiftly Albo is prepared to throw Jim under the bus to elevate himself by way of comparison.
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Albo → ’ → comparison
When there is bad news that needs to be delicately explained away, Anthony Albanese often goes missing (file image)
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Albanese → be → ?
Australia’s annual inflation rate reached 4.3 per cent in September, with underlying inflation at 3.6 per cent.
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rate → reach → cent
Treasury says headline inflation across the G7 economies increased by about 1.5 percentage points (on average) between the start of this year and September.
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inflation → say → year
Chalmers didn’t manufacture that problem.
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Chalmers → manufacture → problem
Nor does the broader economic picture necessarily support the caricature of a country uniquely mismanaged.
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picture → support → country
Treasury also notes that our public debt and deficits remain relatively low compared with other advanced economies.
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debt → note → economies
Although we do have to note the steep trajectory as debt continues to grow.
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debt → have → trajectory
But International comparisons offer little comfort to voters struggling at the supermarket checkout, and today’s expected rate rise is only going to add to that pain.
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rise → offer → pain
Context matters when judging a treasurer.
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Context → matter → treasurer
If we’re going to hold Chalmers accountable for domestic decisions, we should distinguish those decisions from forces beyond his control.
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we → go → control
The argument that Chalmers simply failed to unwind pandemic spending misses what actually happened.
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what → fail → spending
Federal payments fell from 31.3 per cent of GDP in 2020/21 to 24.3 per cent in 2022/23, below their 24.5 per cent share before the pandemic.
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payments → fall → pandemic
Increasingly it is Treasurer Jim Chalmers who is left to explain the consequences (file image)
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who → leave → consequences
Then spending climbed again.
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spending → climb → ?
It reached 26.2 per cent in 2024/25, with the budget forecasting 26.8 per cent this financial year.
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budget → reach → cent
The stronger criticism is that, having emerged from the emergency of the pandemic, the government allowed spending to expand again and again, without sufficient offsetting restraint.
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spending → emerge → restraint
Because it had an election to win, and one-off tax windfalls pushed two budgets back into surplus, which gave Labor the political opportunity to spend up big and get away with it.
But chickens always come home to roost.
Even worthy government spending programs compete for workers, materials and services just as private spending does.
When the economy’s capacity is stretched, insufficient budget restraint leaves interest rates carrying more of the adjustment.
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restraint → have → adjustment
Borrowers then bear a disproportionate share of the pain.
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Borrowers → bear → pain
Chalmers needs to own that criticism.
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Chalmers → need → criticism
But he’s not the PM, and that’s who bears the ultimate responsibility for the government, good or bad.
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who → ’ → government
Chalmers also has a Finance Minister, Katy Gallagher (pictured), whose political loyalties lie firmly with Albo
Paul Keating would hardly have meekly accepted being left to carry the economic pain while Bob Hawke claimed all the credit for fixing problems.
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Hawke → have → problems
He understood that a treasurer’s authority was something to defend and preserve, not something a prime minister could be trusted to preserve independently.
uncertain
minister → understand → ?
Chalmers also has a Finance Minister, Katy Gallagher, whose political loyalties lie firmly with Albo.
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loyalties → have → Albo
Spending restraint requires her support as well as the PM’s.
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restraint → require → support
We often forget how important the lower profile finance minister is to budgeting.
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minister → forget → budgeting
If neither Albo nor Katy will help impose spending discipline, blaming the Treasurer becomes a convenient exercise in passing the buck.
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blaming → help → buck
A treasurer can propose savings, but delivering substantial restraint requires a PM willing to defend unpopular choices, disappoint constituencies when it’s necessary to do so, and tell colleagues that their priorities can’t all be funded.
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priorities → propose → colleagues
Albo can’t reserve the right to limit his Treasurer’s options and then leave him carrying the consequences.
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Albo → reserve → consequences
…and 19 more, not listed.
The Aporia
