The central question in the US midterm elections is whether MAGA supremo
Donald Trump can retain control of Congress or whether voters will hand Democrats the opportunity to challenge his agenda during the final two years of his presidency.
asserted
voters → retain → presidency
With Americans heading to the polls on Tuesday, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are up for grabs.
asserted
seats → head → grabs
Republicans currently control both chambers, but Trump's falling approval ratings, rising living costs and the war with Iran have given Democrats fresh hope of making gains.
asserted
ratings → control → gains
According to a BBC report, the elections could determine how much freedom Trump has to push his policies through Congress and how effectively Democrats can challenge his administration.
uncertain
Democrats → accord → administration
Why midterms matter for Trump
The midterm elections are traditionally a test of the sitting president's popularity.
asserted
elections → matter → popularity
The party in power often loses seats as voters use the elections to express dissatisfaction with the administration.
asserted
voters → lose → administration
Trump's approval ratings have added to Republican concerns.
asserted
ratings → add → concerns
According to polling data cited by the BBC, his approval rating began his second term at just over 50% but subsequently fell into the 40s.
uncertain
rating → accord → 40s
It dropped below 40% after the US and Israel launched air strikes against Iran at the end of February and currently stands at around 38%.
asserted
US → drop → %
Historically, the president's party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections since 1934.
asserted
party → lose → 1934
It has gained seats in only three of the 23 elections held during that period, the BBC reported.
asserted
BBC → gain → period
The political stakes are particularly high because Republicans have only narrow control of the House.
asserted
Republicans → have → House
A Democratic takeover of either chamber could make it harder for Trump to advance his legislative agenda.
uncertain
Trump → make → agenda
House battle: Republicans face a narrow majority
The Republicans currently hold 218 seats in the 435-member House of Representatives, giving them a razor-thin majority.
asserted
Republicans → face → majority
All 435 seats are being contested because House members serve two-year terms.
asserted
members → contest → terms
However, not every constituency is expected to witness a close contest.
asserted
constituency → expect → contest
According to the Cook Political Report, only 18 seats are considered toss-ups, meaning either party has a realistic chance of winning them.
uncertain
party → accord → them
Of these, 14 are currently held by Republicans and four by Democrats.
asserted
14 → hold → Democrats
Democrats could also take control by winning seats in constituencies already classified as likely or leaning towards them.
uncertain
Democrats → take → them
The narrow Republican majority means even a relatively small shift in voter support could change control of the House.
uncertain
shift → mean → House
Senate race: Democrats face a tougher challenge
The battle for the Senate is more complicated for Democrats.
asserted
battle → face → Democrats
Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 seats, while Democrats have 45.
asserted
Democrats → hold → 45
Two independents also vote with the Democrats.
asserted
independents → vote → Democrats
Unlike the House, only about one-third of Senate seats are contested every two years because senators serve six-year terms.
asserted
senators → contest → terms
The Cook Political Report identifies seven Senate races as toss-ups, six of which are currently held by Republicans.
asserted
six → identify → Republicans
Democrats would need to win four of these seats, along with four seats classified as likely or leaning Democratic, to reach the 51-seat majority.
asserted
Democrats → need → majority
Among the closely watched contests is Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent.
asserted
Sayed → watch → Rogers
Democrats are also targeting traditionally Republican states, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
asserted
Democrats → target → Alaska
Texas is another key battleground, where Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton.
asserted
Talarico → challenge → Paxton
A Talarico victory would give Democrats their first Senate seat in the state since 1988, according to the BBC.
uncertain
victory → give → BBC
Cost of living, healthcare and immigration dominate voter concerns
The economy remains one of the biggest challenges for Republicans heading into the elections.
asserted
economy → dominate → elections
Trump had promised to bring down inflation and make everyday life more affordable during his 2024 campaign, but rising costs have remained a major concern for American households.
asserted
costs → promise → households
The war with Iran has added to the pressure.
asserted
war → add → pressure
Trump had highlighted falling petrol prices in his State of the Union address on February 24, saying prices were below $2.30 per gallon in most states.
asserted
prices → highlight → states
However, the conflict with Iran began four days later, disrupting energy supplies from the Middle East and pushing petrol prices to around $4 per gallon.
asserted
conflict → begin → gallon
The war has also become increasingly unpopular among Americans.
asserted
war → become → Americans
A poll conducted in August found that 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump's handling of the conflict, the BBC reported.
asserted
BBC → conduct → conflict
Healthcare and immigration are other major issues shaping the campaign.
asserted
Healthcare → shape → campaign
Democratic candidates have focused on the rising cost of health insurance and concerns over access to healthcare under Trump's policies.
asserted
candidates → focus → policies
Republicans, meanwhile, have highlighted the administration's immigration measures, with Trump pointing to a sharp fall in illegal border crossings as evidence of their success.
asserted
Trump → highlight → success
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
