There’s no simple answer as to when US voters will know the results of the midterms.
asserted
voters → ’ → midterms
Elections are managed locally throughout the US, and it’s different in each state.
asserted
it → manage → state
Sometimes, if a race isn’t close, there’s a near-instantaneous sense of who won.
asserted
who → ’ → ?
In more contested races, it can take many hours, days or even weeks.
asserted
it → contest → hours
That’s not to mention local councils and school boards.
asserted
That → ’ → councils
The lag between voting and knowing results can lead to an information vacuum and uncertainty that partisan actors may exploit to spread lies about stolen elections.
uncertain
actors → vote → elections
Donald Trump , who has denied the results of his 2020 loss and other elections when he hasn’t liked the results, has tried to assert federal control over elections, which the courts have rebuffed.
asserted
courts → deny → which
Here’s what you need to know about how votes are tabulated and when we may expect to know the results.
uncertain
we → ’ → results
How are votes counted?
asserted
votes → count → ?
Local election officials process and count ballots in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on election day, on 5 November 2024.
asserted
officials → process → November
voters cast ballots in person during early voting or on election day, and many millions also vote by mail.
asserted
millions → cast → mail
Some states send out mail ballots to all voters, while others have systems in place where a voter can request a mail ballot.
asserted
voter → send → ballot
Some states will count ballots sent by mail for days after election day so long as they are postmarked by election day, a practice recently upheld by the US supreme court.
asserted
they → count → court
Paper ballots are typically tabulated by machines, with partial hand counts and audits checking those results for accuracy.
asserted
counts → tabulate → accuracy
Results are often uploaded in batches.
asserted
Results → upload → batches
In some places, mail ballots that arrive on election day are tabulated in advance then released soon after polls close, usually about an hour after closure.
asserted
polls → arrive → closure
There are also curing periods, where voters who need to provide additional information or verify the accuracy of their signature on a mail ballot have an opportunity to make sure their votes are counted.
asserted
votes → be → opportunity
These ballots often are the last ones tabulated.
asserted
ballots → tabulate → ?
Tabulation can take longer in places that are more populous or that have rules that allow for broader voting access, like universal mail voting or curing periods.
asserted
that → take → voting
It may also seem like it takes longer in closely watched races, but this is often a factor of the closeness of the race and importance of each ballot.
uncertain
this → seem → ballot
In 2024, MIT’s Election Data and Science Lab notes , even the slowest-counting states had tabulated a majority of their votes within about eight hours.
asserted
states → note → hours
All but California had counted more than 75% of votes after two days.
asserted
All → count → days
Results of a race are not considered final until they are canvassed and certified by local authorities, though winners are often clear well before these final deadlines.
asserted
winners → consider → deadlines
If races fall within a very narrow margin, usually a fraction of a percent, they could trigger an automatic recount under state or local laws.
uncertain
they → fall → laws
These recounts can substantially delay results.
asserted
recounts → delay → results
News outlets usually do not call races if they are within the automatic recount margin.
asserted
they → call → margin
How do news organizations call winners?
asserted
organizations → call → winners
organizations, most notably the Associated Press, predict a winner based on early, unofficial results.
asserted
organizations → predict → results
These race calls do not impede official election processes – ballots will still all be counted and certified, even if winners are called well before all ballots are counted.
asserted
ballots → impede → processes
Candidates often wait for a race call by the AP and other organizations before declaring victory.
asserted
Candidates → wait → victory
In some instances, if races are closer or if they don’t trust results, candidates may not concede after a media race call.
uncertain
candidates → trust → call
The AP has said it doesn’t call races unless it is “highly confident of the outcome”.
asserted
it → say → outcome
Its research team analyzes local rules and procedures, past races and ballot return patterns.
asserted
team → analyze → rules
Some of these race calls come soon after results roll in, usually in races that are in strongly partisan districts or without meaningful opposition.
asserted
that → come → opposition
In 2024, the presidential race was called by the early morning hours of the next day.
asserted
race → call → day
But, the MIT Election Data and Science Lab notes , the last US House race in 2024 wasn’t called until 3 December.
asserted
race → note → December
Can winners ‘change’ overnight?
asserted
winners → change → ?
The sun sets behind the US Capitol Dome on 4 September 2026 in Washington DC.
asserted
sun → set → DC
more ballots are counted, a candidate may gain or lose the lead in any given race.
uncertain
candidate → count → race
This is a function of ballots being counted, not some sort of nefariousness.
asserted
This → count → nefariousness
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
