People across the United States are betting on this year's midterm races at record levels for US election betting.
asserted
People → bet → betting
More than $1.4 billion has been wagered on the midterms, according to the platforms and industry research.
uncertain
billion → wager → platforms
Prediction market platforms allow traders to buy and sell "yes" or "no" contracts on a range of race outcomes and variables.
asserted
traders → allow → outcomes
The markets rose to prominence in 2024 when they bucked traditional opinion polls in signaling that Donald Trump would win the presidency.
asserted
Trump → rise → presidency
Among those watching the results roll in on Tuesday evening will be Noah Poser, who will be glued to his phone tracking dozens of large wagers he placed on prediction markets when polls close in the US midterm elections on Tuesday night.
asserted
polls → watch → night
Poser, 28, works in financial technology and has written about betting strategies in such markets.
asserted
Poser → work → markets
He plans to track every change in the vote count from a friend's watch party in New York City.
asserted
He → plan → City
He said he has wagers totaling six figures on the line, betting on a strong showing by Democrats.
asserted
he → say → Democrats
He placed the bets a few months ago when the odds were much better.
asserted
odds → place → bets
If he wins, he estimates profits of as much as $30,000.
asserted
he → win → 30,000
"It's a numbers game; you have to strip your emotions out of it," said Poser, the author of a self-published book about his prediction markets strategies.
asserted
Poser → have → strategies
Poser built a quantitative model for trading these markets based on a career in Wall Street technology systems.
asserted
Poser → build → systems
Election betting offers high profits and huge emotional swings
asserted
betting → offer → profits
A 22-year-old Florida State University student, Yadin Eldar, is among those with money riding on the outcome.
asserted
student → rid → outcome
Eldar expects the Democrats to win on a large scale, but his approach runs the other way: he is betting on races where his analysis shows the odds of Republican candidates emerging victorious are "extremely underpriced.
asserted
odds → expect → candidates
"You can make a 50-55% profit on Republicans winning in Florida," he said in an interview.
asserted
he → make → interview
Eldar said the experience is stressful.
asserted
experience → say → ?
He may leave his own phone at home on Tuesday night when he heads to an unrelated birthday party.
uncertain
he → leave → party
"The emotional roller coaster is extremely dangerous," he said.
asserted
he → say → ?
I panic sell or panic buy."
asserted
I → panic → ?
Gamble, a human resources business partner, said he has been betting on the platforms for two or three months.
asserted
he → say → months
He won't wager more than $20 on anything.
asserted
He → wager → anything
"It is gambling, just disguised as predictions," said Gamble.
asserted
Gamble → disguise → predictions
"It gives you a gambling rush."
asserted
It → give → rush
Packed summits and Wall Street sponsors propelled election betting into mainstream
Prediction markets' surging popularity is being embraced by big-ticket industry events.
asserted
popularity → pack → events
One sign of that came in October, when a gathering called NEXTPredict drew a capacity crowd of more than 2,000 traders, investors and platform operators to New York.
asserted
gathering → come → York
Several of its sessions were given over to election contracts.
asserted
Several → give → contracts
"It's a very different vibe than we had in 2024, when prediction markets were really new and kind of upstarts," said Lucas Kohorst, co-founder of Adjacent Markets, a platform that raised $2.5 million this summer to build out its business aggregating contracts into tradable indexes or benchmarks.
asserted
that → have → indexes
Adjacent's own political indexes have been moving in recent days.
asserted
indexes → move → days
The firm's Democrat Political Futures Index has climbed 2.38% over the past seven days, while its Republican counterpart has edged up 0.14%.
asserted
counterpart → climb → days
Kohorst made his own plans for election eve.
asserted
Kohorst → make → eve
Late last week, he and his team flew from New York to Chicago to attend a watch party hosted by Kalshi, a top prediction market.
asserted
he → fly → Kalshi
Kalshi had joined financial market stalwarts like the Options Clearing Corporation as a silver-level sponsor of the Futures Industry Association's annual conference.
asserted
Kalshi → join → conference
"This time, prediction markets seem to have joined the mainstream," Kohorst said.
asserted
Kohorst → seem → mainstream
Kalshi did not respond to requests for comment on the event.
asserted
Kalshi → respond → event
A Vegas bar is betting on election night to lure gamblers from Strip
A bar owner in Las Vegas is betting that America's midterm elections can pull gamblers away from the slot machines and roulette tables of the Strip.
asserted
elections → bet → Strip
Peter Klamka recently launched his Prediction Vegas bar, and he believes the midterms could turn it into a popular new draw.
uncertain
midterms → launch → draw
The city is the spiritual home of a casino industry that takes a strong line against prediction market platforms, yet aficionados of those markets are seizing on the midterms all the same.
asserted
aficionados → take → midterms
Klamka is also preparing to host the Prediction Markets Conference, an industry gathering, on Tuesday evening.
asserted
Klamka → prepare → evening
"No casinos will be showing elections," Klamka said.
asserted
Klamka → show → elections
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
