From gas and groceries to housing and wage growth, midterm voters who are being squeezed by inflation tell NBC News the economy is their top issue this Election Day.
asserted
economy → squeeze → News
In 2024, President Donald Trump’s promise to bring down prices and make daily life more affordable helped him win back the White House.
But nearly two years into his second term, Trump’s tariffs and his war with Iran have driven costs higher across the country, fueling deep discontent among voters.
asserted
tariffs → bring → voters
These frustrations aren’t confined to voters who support Democrats.
asserted
who → confine → Democrats
More than half of Republicans, 53%, are dissatisfied with the state of the economy, according to the latest NBC News poll.
uncertain
half → accord → poll
This has created an opening for Democrats to win majorities in both the House and the Senate.
asserted
Democrats → create → House
And while the House majority is widely expected to shift to Democrats after Tuesday night, the Senate is still very much a jump ball.
asserted
Senate → expect → night
Veteran election data analysts are quick to remind the public that as Tuesday’s voting and later counting unfolds, any one of the competitive Senate races could tip either way.
uncertain
one → remind → races
Pain at the pump
In several of the states with close Senate races, voters face gas prices that have climbed higher, and more sharply, than the mean nationwide prices over the same period.
Across the country, the average cost of a gallon of gas has risen 40% since Feb. 28, the day Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched attacks on Iran that sent crude oil prices through the roof.
asserted
that → face → roof
Right before the war, the average price of unleaded was $2.98 per gallon, according to NBC News’ gas price tracker.
uncertain
price → accord → tracker
In Iowa, however, the average price has climbed by significantly more, nearly 55% since late February.
asserted
price → climb → February
The same figure applies in Nebraska.
asserted
figure → apply → Nebraska
All three states broke for Trump in 2024.
asserted
states → break → 2024
Drivers in Michigan are also experiencing an outsized jump, with gas up 51% from $2.99 in February to $4.52 Monday.
asserted
gas → experience → 4.52
There, Democrat Abdul El Sayed is facing off against Republican Mike Rogers.
asserted
Sayed → face → Rogers
In Ohio, where Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging incumbent Republican Jon Husted, the price of a gallon of gas has climbed by 48%.
asserted
price → challenge → %
“We aren’t going very many places,” Kathy DiCristofaro, of Youngstown, Ohio, told NBC News.
asserted
DiCristofaro → go → News
“We’re retired and have had to cancel trips,” she said.
asserted
she → retire → trips
In Maine, the price of a gallon of gas is 46% higher than it was before the war, creating a drag on Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and an opportunity for Democrat Troy Jackson.
asserted
it → create → Jackson
Even when national average gas prices pivot lower, as they did throughout October, that doesn’t always extend to parts of the country where refinery activity influences fuel costs, particularly in the Great Lakes region.
asserted
activity → pivot → region
Far from the coasts, refineries that service Michigan, Ohio and Iowa cannot easily restore supply lost to weather events or refinery capacity.
asserted
that → service → events
“When you’re isolated in the interior of the country, these problems can linger as long as the refinery is experiencing issues,” said Patrick De Haan, chief petroleum analyst at GasBuddy.
asserted
Haan → isolate → GasBuddy
Tariffs hit home
asserted
Tariffs → hit → home
Beyond the gas pump, voters are also feeling the sting of higher oil prices overseas in the form of increased transportation costs for groceries and retail goods.
asserted
voters → feel → groceries
In several of the states with tight Senate races, average households are spending a lot more of their monthly income on groceries than shoppers elsewhere in the country, according to a WalletHub study.
uncertain
households → spend → study
Among the 10 most cost-burdened cities for groceries in America, three of them are in Ohio: Cleveland, Toledo and Cincinnati.
asserted
three → burden → Ohio
Also making the list are Detroit, and Hialeah, Florida, the latter a red state with surprisingly competitive gubernatorial and Senate races this year
asserted
latter → make → races
“The cost of living is extremely high,” said Peris Morgan, a Michigan voter who spoke with NBC News outside a polling place in Sterling Heights on Monday.
asserted
who → say → Monday
Groceries are high, gas is high, everything is high, and so yeah, the cost of living compared to what people are being paid is not adding up
asserted
people → compare → what
While higher diesel costs have raised the price of transporting everyday goods, many businesses have also passed another big new cost on to consumers in the past two years: tariffs.
asserted
businesses → raise → years
Trump’s sweeping tariff regime has hit several of the states with major Senate races significantly harder than it has hit other states.
asserted
it → hit → states
The nonprofit National Taxpayers Union Foundation ranks all 50 states by how much tariffs have cost their economies since 2025.
asserted
tariffs → rank → 2025
Three of the four states that pay the most for tariffs also have tight Senate races: Texas comes in second, Michigan third and Georgia is fourth.
asserted
Georgia → pay → races
The lion’s share of these costs have come in the form of new import duties that affected the price of cars and trucks.
asserted
that → come → cars
But across the country, tariffs will cost every household an additional $1,100 this year, on average, according to estimates from the Yale Budget Lab.
uncertain
tariffs → cost → Lab
“This is not what we signed on for, for the tariffs and all this stuff,” said Jacqui Rose Tucker, a resident of Southwest Atlanta who spoke with NBC News’ Gabriella Rudy outside a grocery store.
asserted
who → sign → store
“My dollar does not go very far anymore,” she said, “This little bit of groceries was $218.
asserted
bit → go → groceries
It’s ridiculous.
asserted
It → ’ → ?
So yeah, I’m real concerned.”
asserted
I → ’m → ?
While daily costs are straining people’s wallets, longer-term investments like housing are also forcing voters to make sacrifices.
asserted
investments → strain → sacrifices
In Alaska, the median home price in September was up by 4.0% year over year at $415,805, above the national average of $389,601 which was down 0.1%, according to data from Redfin.
uncertain
which → accord → Redfin
…and 22 more, not listed.
The Aporia
