It's Election Day, and all signs point to victory for Democrats.
asserted
signs → point → Democrats
Nate Silver's FLIPR model, which blends polling with fundamentals, gives Democrats an 82.4 percent chance of winning the Senate and a 96.4 percent chance of winning control of the House.
asserted
which → blend → House
Both Kalshi and Polymarket show Democrats as strong favorites to win both chambers of Congress.
asserted
Kalshi → show → Congress
The Reason Roundup Newsletter by Liz Wolfe Liz and Reason help you make sense of the day's news every morning.
asserted
you → help → news
In recent years, pollsters have had trouble reaching the white, rural voters who now form the core of the Republican Party base.
asserted
who → have → base
But the Democratic advantage in the polls has been growing in recent days.
asserted
advantage → grow → days
And as Silver notes, even if the polls overestimate Democratic strength by a few points, their lead is so large that they could still win.
uncertain
they → note → points
The blue wave (probably) cometh.
asserted
wave → cometh → ?
The question is what Democrats will do with their newfound majorities.
asserted
Democrats → do → majorities
On this week's Reason Roundtable, Katherine Mangu-Ward, Nick Gillespie, Matt Welch, and I discussed what we can expect Democrats to do to us once they regain power.
asserted
they → discuss → power
Perhaps they'll rein in Trump's power on tariffs and war.
asserted
they → rein → tariffs
But just as likely, they'll take symbolic votes to register their opposition to Trump's array of unpopular policies and then spend a lot of time grandstanding.
asserted
they → take → time
One way of looking at this election is as a referendum on the economy.
asserted
way → look → economy
Another way of looking at the likely blue tide is as a vote to check Trump's power.
asserted
way → look → power
That is the takeaway from a recent Wall Street Journal poll: "A majority of voters say they want a candidate for Congress who will put guardrails on Trump's powers, and a majority prefers a candidate who will vote to end the war with Iran.
asserted
who → say → Iran
Even many Republicans, the poll found, say they will back GOP candidates for Congress but still prefer a candidate who would provide a check on the president."
asserted
who → find → president
It may be hard right now to feel confident about how big the wave will be.
uncertain
wave → feel → ?
But it also was not hard to see early on how this cycle could be a 2006 or 2010: a president and his party, convinced of their own brilliance and invincibility.
uncertain
cycle → see → brilliance
— Kristen Soltis Anderson (@KSoltisAnderson) November 3, 2026
Divided government, as we are likely to have after today's election, doesn't solve every political problem.
asserted
we → have → problem
It probably doesn't even solve most of them.
asserted
It → solve → them
But it does create an adversarial relationship between Congress and the executive branch.
asserted
it → create → Congress
And that adversarial posture might make it more difficult for either Congress or the president to muck things up too much.
uncertain
Congress → make → things
With Americans clearly signaling frustration with the economy, inflation, and the price of food and gas in particular, you might have expected President Donald Trump to spend the final days before the election talking about how he'd solve those problems.
uncertain
he → signal → problems
Instead, Trump decided to make his final election pitch at the Reflecting Pool, where he bragged about a recent renovation that, after some fits and starts, mostly left the pool in the same shape it was to begin with.
asserted
it → decide → shape
At a speech yesterday afternoon, Trump mused about renaming the pool after himself.
asserted
Trump → muse → himself
Maybe the White House has secret polling data showing there are a lot of Reflecting Pool voters?
asserted
House → have → voters
Trump went to the National Mall today to talk about algae pic.twitter.com/t66XPl9c4X
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) November 2, 2026
Meanwhile, the Department of Education is posting Malfoid fanfic memes (don't ask).
asserted
Department → go → memes
And over the weekend, the online right decided to meme-cast themselves as Anakin Skywalker, the moody young Jedi who slaughtered a bunch of sensitive children before going on to become arguably the most notorious villain in modern pop culture, Darth Vader.
asserted
who → decide → culture
As a closing argument, it's nuts on every level.
asserted
it → close → level
Do they really think there are so many fans…of the prequels?
asserted
they → think → prequels
I kid.
asserted
I → kid → ?
Does any of this speak to the concerns of ordinary voters who are concerned about the economy and might be wary of pulling the lever for the GOP?
uncertain
who → speak → GOP
What is going on here?
asserted
What → go → ?
I think the simplest explanation is that Trump's signature policies—the war in Iran, the on-again-off-again tariff regime that has driven up prices, the immigration raids that have resulted in chaos and killings on America's streets—are simply indefensible.
asserted
that → think → streets
Or at least they are impossible to defend on the terms that today's Republicans have decided to abide by.
asserted
Republicans → defend → that
No one in the president's orbit is even trying.
asserted
one → try → orbit
Vance has spent the last few weeks lamely attempting to redefine socialism, probably because socialism as it is usually defined would include many of Trump's own policies.
asserted
it → spend → policies
Again, none of this is responsive to the concerns voters have about high prices and pointless war.
asserted
voters → have → prices
But to address those concerns directly would require Republicans to do the one thing they have spent a full decade proving they absolutely will not do: forcefully critique Trump and his destructive, counter-productive policies.
asserted
they → address → Trump
They have fully abdicated that responsibility.
asserted
They → abdicate → responsibility
…and 9 more, not listed.
The Aporia
