How will Donald Trump react to the extraordinary loss of face that, in all probability, lies in wait for him when the polls for today’s midterm elections finally close?
asserted
polls → react → elections
However constrained he might be by the loss of the House, the Senate, or both, there is little that domestic politicians can do to prevent Trump waging war abroad in the two years that remain to him in office.
uncertain
that → be → office
Another massive assault on Iran is expected.
asserted
assault → expect → Iran
A third carrier strike group is already heading to Gulf with 10,000 personnel aboard.
asserted
group → head → Gulf
We have just seen a ‘defensive’ raid on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz.
asserted
We → see → Hormuz
If you thought the price of gas was already outrageous, it’s about to get higher still.
asserted
it → think → gas
There may be method in what to hard-pressed motorists is madness.
uncertain
motorists → press → ?
An E-2C Hawkeye landing on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush just a few days ago
How will Donald Trump react if Republicans do badly in in midterms?
asserted
Republicans → react → midterms
An attack on Iran looks likely.
asserted
attack → look → Iran
We have just seen a fresh strike on Iranian assets in the Strait of Hormuz
The mullah's are defiant, as this street portrait of a battered Witkoff, Trump, Netanyahu and Vance shows.
asserted
portrait → see → Witkoff
But can the regime survive another two years of isolation?
asserted
regime → survive → isolation
Trump, after all, is a man who – unaffected by the price of fuel for his armoured limousines – is searching for a legacy.
asserted
who → search → legacy
First there is the calculation that Iran will be unable to withstand another two years of bombing and blockades before his second and final term is out.
asserted
term → be → bombing
Tehran’s economy is already crippled
asserted
economy → cripple → ?
The balance of power is changing, and Trump will feel he can guide this process towards a solution which not only pleases America but genuinely aids world peace.
asserted
which → change → peace
This would, in turn, grant the 47th president the kind of political victory that now seems out of reach in the domestic sphere.
So, what’s going on?
asserted
what → grant → sphere
The best clue lies in the Mecca accord announced in August, a deal which brings together Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a unified defence fact.
asserted
which → lie → fact
In theory, this guarantees that an attack on one is an attack on all.
asserted
attack → guarantee → all
It’s no small matter.
asserted
It → ’ → ?
Saudi Arabia is not only custodian to Islam’s holiest places, it remains one of the richest nations on earth.
asserted
it → remain → earth
But more to the point, it one of the world’s leading high-tech armaments industries and one of the biggest standing armies in the region.
asserted
it → lead → region
Remember, too, the pact has been signed with the blessing of Washington.
asserted
pact → remember → Washington
The Mecca union presents Iran with a clear and present dilemma.
asserted
union → present → dilemma
To ignore it would be to stand on the sidelines while its hated regional rival, Saudi Arabia, grows in strength.
asserted
rival → ignore → strength
It would be inconvenient for Tehran, to say the least, to have Pakistan lined up alongside the Sunnis of Riad.
asserted
Pakistan → say → Riad
Quite aside from its nuclear weapons, Pakistan has adroitly placed itself as an honest broker in the conflict between Iran and the US - and Iran needs all the friends it can get.
asserted
it → place → friends
Then comes the involvement of Turkey, which might present the greatest difficulty of all.
uncertain
which → come → all
True, Turkey has maintained a friendly relationship with Tehran (very different from its hostile stance on Israel).
asserted
Turkey → maintain → Israel
But of all nations in the Middle East, it is Turkey that threatens regional hegemony – a dominance that, were it achieved, would leave Iran’s ambitions of regional leadership in tatters.
asserted
it → threaten → tatters
For Turkey already works with the Americans when it suits, and will continue to do so.
asserted
it → work → Americans
This can hardly suit Tehran.
asserted
This → suit → Tehran
There is every prospect that, with Turkish leadership and US encouragement, the Egyptians will sign up, and that the bloc will steadily grow.
asserted
bloc → be → leadership
And, while they will be loath to acknowledge it, the mullahs (who are ethnically Persian) know all too well that one third of the Iranian population is Turkic and already maintains a warm regard for the cultural leadership of Ankara.
asserted
third → acknowledge → Ankara
All of the above will come into ever sharper focus as America continues its steady withdrawal from the region, leaving the screaming question: who will take its place?
asserted
who → come → place
In short, a major realignment is already under way, and the Iranians will need to choose – and soon.
asserted
Iranians → need → way
The best option might be to embrace what it cannot outflank and join the nascent bloc.
uncertain
it → embrace → bloc
Yet to do so would be to accept that it must abandon its nuclear ambitions and can no longer threaten regional neighbours, including Israel.
asserted
it → accept → Israel
It will be forced keep its behaviour within accepted l norms.
asserted
It → force → norms
Qeshm Island helps Iran control international shipping through the narrow strait
The Mecca Union, announced in August, brings together Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a three-way defence pact
Remember, too, the agreement has been signed with the blessing of Washington
There would be benefits, meanwhile.
asserted
agreement → help → Washington
Peace and the chance for a shattered economy to recover.
asserted
economy → shatter → ?
…and 6 more, not listed.
The Aporia
