Democrats are poised to take control of the US House of Representatives after two tumultuous years of Donald Trump’s second presidency.
asserted
Democrats → poise → presidency
A change in House control would give Democrats a perch to conduct robust oversight of the administration for its final two years.
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change → give → years
Republicans currently hold 218 seats in the House and Democrats have 214.
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Democrats → hold → 214
(There is one vacancy in a Republican seat and one vacancy in a Democratic seat, and one Republican member switched his party affiliation to independent.)
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member → be → independent
Democrats need to flip just three seats to gain control of the House, something they are expected to do easily.
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they → need → House
All members of the House run for re-election every two years.
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members → run → election
To have a majority in the House, a party must control at least 218 seats.
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party → have → seats
While there is still some uncertainty about how many seats Democrats could gain, the non-partisan Cook Political Report predicts Democrats will pick up 15 to 25 seats, which could give them anywhere from 230 to 240 seats in the House.
uncertain
which → be → House
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, another forecaster, lists 239 House seats in Democrats’ favor.
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Center → list → favor
Traditionally, the president’s party performs poorly in the midterms – held midway through the president’s four-year term.
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party → perform → term
Republicans are facing significant headwinds this year with Trump’s approval rating hitting record lows.
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rating → face → lows
The war in Iran also remains deeply unpopular and gas prices remain extremely high.
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prices → remain → Iran
Gaining a majority in the House would give Democrats control of the body’s committees and the ability to subpoena documents and witnesses as part of investigations.
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Gaining → gain → investigations
Democrats have signaled they will investigate Trump’s family business, immigration enforcement, matters related to Jeffrey Epstein, and Robert F Kennedy Jr’s handling of vaccine procedures and recommendations, among other issues.
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they → signal → issues
If Democrats retake the House, Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat from Brooklyn first elected in 2012, is expected to become speaker.
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Jeffries → retake → 2012
Democrats are expected to take control of the House despite an unusual and aggressive effort by Republicans to redraw congressional districts before the election to their advantage.
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Democrats → expect → advantage
At the request of Trump, Republicans in Texas, Florida, Missouri and other Republican-led states redrew their districts to add more GOP-friendly ones.
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Republicans → lead → ones
After the supreme court issued a landmark ruling significantly weakening a key provision of the Voting Rights Act, lawmakers in Alabama, North Carolina and Tennessee redrew their maps to eliminate districts where Black voters had been able to elect a candidate of their choosing.
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voters → issue → choosing
But the political environment is so unfavorable to Republicans that Democrats could win races in the Alabama and North Carolina districts that were redrawn.
uncertain
that → win → districts
Some GOP-friendly districts added in Texas also appear winnable for Democrats.
asserted
districts → add → Democrats
Overall, Republicans may only pick up a handful of the districts they redrew to their advantage.
uncertain
they → pick → advantage
The first polls closed in Indiana and Kentucky at 6pm ET, with more states following mostly hourly after that.
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states → close → that
Results in Kentucky’s sixth district will be closely watched, as Democrat Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former prosecutor, takes on Republican Dr Ralph Alvarado, whom Trump has backed, for the open seat.
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Trump → watch → seat
The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up despite a partisan lean towards Republicans, and a Dembo victory could indicate a big night ahead for Democrats.
uncertain
victory → rat → Democrats
Polls closed across Florida at 7pm ET; there are also several competitive House races in the state, even in districts that state Republicans recently redrew in their favor.
asserted
Republicans → close → favor
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz easily won re-election in Florida’s 20th district, which is heavily Democratic, according to the AP.
uncertain
which → win → AP
The Aporia
