Like everyone else, I’ll be watching the biggest show on Election Night: When the dust settles, will Republicans still control the United States Senate?
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Republicans → watch → Senate
But So, Does It Matter? is mostly about California politics, and we’ve got plenty of drama of our own.
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we → matter → own
Hundreds of contests will be decided here Tuesday.
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Hundreds → decide → contests
I couldn’t begin to cover them all.
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I → begin → them
Some will be nail-biters; others won’t be close, but the margins will still tell us something
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margins → tell → something
They’re the ones I’ll watch especially closely.
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I → ’re → ?
And because this is California, I’m counting on surprises.
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I → count → surprises
Can Some Republicans Survive California’s New Congressional Map?
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Republicans → survive → Map
Democrats drew Proposition 50’s congressional map to knock more Republicans out of office.
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Democrats → draw → office
Tuesday we’ll see how well it worked.
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it → see → ?
In CD 6, Republican-turned-independent Kevin Kiley faces Democrat Richard Pan.
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Kiley → turn → Pan
Can Kiley pull off an upset without the Republican label?
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Kiley → pull → label
That’s an experiment worth watching.
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That → ’ → ?
In the Central Valley, Republican David Valadao (CD 22) faces Democrat Randy Villegas, while Democrat Adam Gray (CD 13) defends his seat against Republican Kevin Lincoln.
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Gray → face → Lincoln
In San Diego County, Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert (CD 48) are vying to succeed retiring Republican Darrell Issa.
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Desmond → vie → Issa
Then there’s CD 40: Republican incumbents Young Kim and Ken Calvert fighting over the same seat.
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Kim → ’ → seat
Thanks to redistricting and California’s top-two primary system, two sitting Republicans are trying to put each other out of work.
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Republicans → sit → work
Is the Democratic Establishment Losing Its Grip?
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Establishment → lose → Grip
Three longtime Democratic congressmen face challenges from their own party.
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congressmen → face → party
Mike Thompson (CD 4) faces Eric Jones; Doris Matsui (CD 7) faces Mai Vang; and Jimmy Gomez (CD 34) faces Angela Gonzales-Torres.
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Gomez → face → Torres
All three challengers want to send an incumbent packing, though they’re hardly ideological clones.
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they → want → incumbent
Meanwhile, Scott Wiener and Connie Chan are battling in San Francisco’s CD 11 to succeed Nancy Pelosi.
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Wiener → battle → Pelosi
Both are Democrats, but they offer different visions of where the party should go.
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party → offer → visions
If the old guard is on its way out, who’s moving in?
What Will the Statewide Candidate Results Tell Us?
I don’t expect Steve Hilton to beat Xavier Becerra for governor.
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Hilton → move → governor
What I want to know is whether Hilton can crack 40%.
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Hilton → want → %
As I wrote about the latest Berkeley IGS poll, Hilton has rallied Republican voters, but President Trump’s dismal popularity in California doesn’t help.
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popularity → write → California
A September survey found just 27% statewide approval for Trump, including 21% among independent and other-party voters.
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survey → find → voters
Hilton needs those voters.
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Hilton → need → voters
Then there’s Insurance Commissioner: DSA-aligned Jane Kim versus Ben Allen, an extremely liberal Democrat who, in my estimation, falls somewhere between Bernie Sanders and Gavin Newsom.
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who → ’ → Sanders
Proposition 3 would make California’s supposedly temporary higher income taxes permanent.
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taxes → make → ?
The California Teachers Association is “all in” to extend this highest income tax bracket…
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Association → extend → bracket
Voter ID enjoys broad public support nationally, but will that translate into a victory in deep-blue California?
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that → enjoy → California
This is a particularly interesting test of whether an election-integrity measure can win support beyond the Republican base, with Democrats running a “Reject Trump” campaign against it.
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Democrats → win → it
Proposition 39 would require voter identification and citizenship verification.
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Proposition → require → identification
High-profile billionaires have poured enormous sums into defeating it.
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billionaires → pour → it
Google co-founder Sergey Brin spearheaded the effort to put two rival measures, Propositions 41 and 42, on the ballot.
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Brin → spearhead → ballot
Here’s the kicker: If either passes with more yes votes than Proposition 40, it could prevent the wealth tax from taking effect—even if Proposition 40 passes.
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Proposition → ’ → effect
That’s an expensive insurance policy.
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That → ’ → ?
Proposition 43 would restore the two-thirds requirement for local special taxes, closing a loophole that undermined Proposition 13.
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that → restore → Proposition
Proposition 45 would reform environmental review requirements.
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Proposition → reform → requirements
…and 48 more, not listed.
The Aporia
