President Donald Trump has repeatedly encouraged voters to pretend he’s on the ballot this Election Day.
asserted
he → encourage → ballot
They appear to be taking his advice — and that’s not a good thing for the Republican president or his party.
asserted
that → appear → president
Early returns suggest major swings away from the GOP, even in Trump’s adopted home state of Florida.
asserted
returns → suggest → Florida
Voters nationwide are in the mood for change, according to The AP Voter Poll, which found that roughly three-quarters of voters say they feel “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are going in the country today.
uncertain
things → accord → country
Young voters in particular appear to have shifted dramatically away from the GOP after Trump made inroads with this group in 2024.
asserted
Trump → appear → 2024
And among the voters who had Trump in mind when they cast their vote, about twice as many wanted to express opposition to the Republican president as those who wanted to support him.
asserted
who → have → him
Most also blamed the Trump administration for high costs: about 6 in 10 say higher than usual prices are “more because of Trump’s policies” rather than “more because of factors outside Trump’s control.”
asserted
prices → blame → control
Democrats are looking to win majorities in the House and Senate, which would curb Trump’s power after he’s faced few limits from a compliant Republican-controlled Congress.
asserted
he → look → Congress
It could be a difficult night for Trump’s Republican Party, though the political map, not to mention a fresh round of gerrymandering, could limit Democratic gains.
uncertain
map → mention → gains
Trump said: ‘Pretend I'm on the ballot.'
asserted
I → say → ballot
Voters are, and it's not going well
The Republican president was trying to defy history, which shows that in almost every modern midterm election the party in the White House has lost seats in Congress — sometimes many of them.
asserted
party → go → them
Democrats certainly hope that’s the case this year.
asserted
that → hope → ?
The party is optimistic, given Trump’s dismal approval ratings and voter concerns about the war with Iran and the surging price of gas and other daily necessities.
asserted
party → give → gas
The AP Voter Poll suggests most voters are deeply unhappy with Trump, with roughly 6 in 10 saying they disapprove of how he’s handling the presidency.
uncertain
he → suggest → presidency
About 70% of voters want Congress to provide more checks and balances on the president.
asserted
Congress → want → president
About 4 in 10 say the economy is the most important issue facing the country, while roughly 3 in 10 say the state of democracy is the top issue, according to the poll, well above the number who said the same about crime, healthcare and immigration.
uncertain
who → say → crime
Views of Trump’s priorities more broadly were also mostly negative: About 6 in 10 voters said Trump places a higher priority on his personal interests than the country’s interests.
asserted
Trump → say → interests
Trump was betting that his base of white working-class voters — and an increased share of young people and voters of color — which fueled his presidential victory in 2024, could save his Republican allies if they show up in great numbers.
uncertain
they → bet → numbers
But things may not be going as he hoped.
uncertain
he → go → ?
The AP Voter Poll indicates a substantial shift in young people moving away from Republicans.
asserted
people → indicate → Republicans
Voters under 30 were about evenly split between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris two years ago.
asserted
Voters → split → Trump
But in this election, about 7 in 10 voters in that same age nationally say they supported the Democratic House candidate in their area.
asserted
they → say → area
Young voters only make up about 10% of the electorate, according to the poll, which limits the impact of the shift.
uncertain
which → make → shift
But it nonetheless makes it harder for the GOP to win.
asserted
GOP → make → ?
We’re about to learn whether other elements of the Trump coalition are still strong enough to stave off a political beatdown.
asserted
elements → learn → beatdown
The answer will have huge implications for the midterms and the next presidential cycle.
asserted
answer → have → midterms
Can Democrats win both chambers of Congress?
asserted
Democrats → win → Congress
It doesn’t happen often.
asserted
It → happen → ?
Since World War II, the House and Senate have flipped from one party to the other in the same midterm just three times: 1946, 1994 and 2006.
asserted
House → flip → midterm
The common thread when it does happen is an electorate clamoring for change or broad frustration with the sitting president.
asserted
it → happen → president
This year has both, and Democrats are trying to capitalize on the opportunity.
asserted
Democrats → have → opportunity
Strategists in both parties believe Democrats are on track to win a majority in the House, where Republicans began the current Congress with a slim margin of 220-215.
asserted
Republicans → believe → 220
Democrats got a big boost early in the night when Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper won North Carolina’s Senate contest, giving his party one of the minimum four flips it needs.
asserted
it → get → flips
At the same time, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and New Hampshire Democrat Chris Pappas won their respective states’ high-profile Senate contests.
asserted
Pappas → win → contests
Ossoff was once viewed as Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent and the only Democratic senator running in a state Trump won in 2024.
asserted
Trump → view → 2024
In the House, Democrats are targeting more than 60 districts, including many where Trump won by double digits.
asserted
Trump → target → digits
But between redistricting and the deep partisan divide between metropolitan and rural America, there simply aren’t as many competitive races as there were in some previous years when the House flipped, including 2018, when Democrats netted 40 more seats.
asserted
Democrats → be → seats
Republicans currently have a 53-47 advantage.
asserted
Republicans → have → advantage
To take control, Democrats must win states that Trump won.
asserted
Trump → take → that
What version of the Democratic Party will emerge?
asserted
version → emerge → Party
…and 39 more, not listed.
The Aporia
