The Fox News Decision Desk projects former Biden Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra will defeat Republican Steve Hilton in the race to succeed term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom, keeping California's governorship in Democratic hands.
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Becerra → project → hands
Becerra has spent more than three decades in public office, beginning with his election to the California State Assembly in 1990 before serving over two decades in Congress.
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Becerra → spend → Congress
He left the House in 2017 after then-Gov. Jerry Brown appointed him California attorney general, won a full term in the post the following year and later served as President Joe Biden's HHS secretary from 2021 to 2025.
Becerra and Hilton emerged from California's crowded nonpartisan top-two primary in June, when Becerra finished first with roughly 28% of the vote and Hilton advanced in second with about 25%.
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Hilton → leave → %
than 9.4 million Californians cast ballots in the primary, according to certified results from the California secretary of state's office.
uncertain
Californians → cast → office
Becerra's victory extends Democrats' long-running dominance of statewide politics in California, where registered Democrats substantially outnumber Republicans.
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Democrats → extend → Republicans
A Republican has not won a California gubernatorial election since Arnold Schwarzenegger's re-election in 2006 and has not occupied the governor's mansion since he left office in January 2011.
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he → win → January
Hilton, a former Fox News host and onetime policy advisor to British Prime Minister David Cameron, campaigned as a change candidate, arguing that years of Democratic control in Sacramento had contributed to California's high cost of living, homelessness and other problems.
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years → campaign → living
He proposed cutting taxes and state spending, rolling back regulations and climate mandates and expanding energy production to lower housing, electricity and gasoline costs.
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He → propose → costs
Hilton also received President Donald Trump's endorsement but said during the general election that he would work with the administration while disagreeing with the president when necessary.
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he → receive → president
Becerra will inherit a state confronting persistent challenges over housing and energy costs, homelessness and looming budget deficits.
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Becerra → inherit → costs
Affordability was also a central theme of Becerra's campaign, with the Democrat arguing that rising costs threatened what he called the "California Dream."
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he → argue → what
But he offered voters a markedly different prescription from Hilton, proposing a larger role for state programs and enforcement rather than broad cuts to taxes, spending and regulation.
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he → offer → taxes
Becerra proposed accelerating housing construction, expanding childcare assistance and early education, strengthening Medi-Cal and cracking down on landlords he accused of price gouging.
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he → propose → gouging
He also pointed to his record as HHS secretary, including efforts to lower prescription drug costs and expand access to health coverage.
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He → point → coverage
The candidates offered sharply different approaches to the Trump administration as well.
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candidates → offer → administration
Becerra campaigned on protecting California policies and programs from federal challenges, drawing on his record of repeatedly taking the first Trump administration to court during his tenure as state attorney general.
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Becerra → campaign → general
Becerra also reaffirmed during the campaign his support for protecting access to transgender medical procedures, including for transgender youth.
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Becerra → reaffirm → youth
He previously championed the issue as HHS secretary, when he defended leaving treatment decisions involving transgender minors to families and medical providers rather than politicians.
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he → champion → families
Hilton previously told Fox News Digital that Californians are growing fed up with years of Democratic leadership, pointing to homelessness, high taxes and the soaring cost of living as reasons voters may be ready for a change.
"
uncertain
voters → tell → change
I know everyone says, 'Well, it's California, Republicans can't win.'
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Republicans → know → ?
I don't know.
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I → know → ?
I think people are sick of all this," Hilton said.
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Hilton → think → this
"And they're sick of Becerra just taking them for granted, and I think we can win this election."
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we → take → election
Newsom was barred from seeking a third consecutive term after winning the governorship in 2018 and re-election in 2022.
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Newsom → bar → 2022
His departure comes amid continued speculation about a potential 2028 presidential bid.
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departure → come → bid
Becerra will be sworn in as California's 41st governor in January 2027.
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Becerra → swear → January
The Aporia
