Football fans who walked away confused after scouring the opening set of College Football Playoff rankings can take heart: You are not alone and there is plenty of time to sort this out.
asserted
You → walk → this
The question of the moment: Is the CFP selection committee watching the same games as the rest of us?
asserted
committee → watch → us
The committee did its part to add to an already chaotic season, sending mixed messages in virtually every sector of the CFP’s top 25 about how it weighs strength of schedule, the impact of injuries and head-to-head victories.
asserted
it → do → injuries
While it was no big shock to see undefeated Miami at the top of the rankings, that was pretty much the only thing that made perfect sense.
asserted
that → see → sense
Georgia was ranked second even with a home loss to Auburn still close in the rearview mirror.
asserted
loss → rank → mirror
But still, that mirrored the latest AP Top 25.
asserted
that → mirror → Top
So did Utah at No. 3 with an undefeated record.
asserted
Utah → do → record
After that, they could have been picking names out of a hat.
uncertain
they → pick → hat
Strength of schedule matters, except when it doesn’t
Two of the biggest surprises were Notre Dame (7-1) coming up with an “11” by its name — that’s 10 notches behind its No. 1 standing in the ESPN power index and seven spots lower than its AP ranking — and UCLA being ranked eighth despite its undefeated record.
asserted
UCLA → matter → record
But the same math doesn’t work with, say, Ole Miss, which is ranked 10th by the CFP behind four other SEC teams — including the two teams it lost to — despite having the toughest SOS of them all with Georgia up next on Saturday.
asserted
Georgia → work → Saturday
Head-to-head matchups matter, except when they don’t
Yes, placing BYU two spots ahead of Notre Dame at No. 9 makes perfect sense if you consider the Cougars beat the Irish 17 days ago in Provo.
asserted
Cougars → matter → Provo
But how did Tennessee, with an identical record as Alabama, fall eight spots behind the Tide (5 vs. 13) only 17 days after a 26-10 win at Rocky Top?
asserted
Tennessee → fall → Top
Said committee chair Hunter Yurachek: “(T)he head-to-head match-up between Tennessee and Alabama is not going to come into play at this point because of where those teams were reviewed in the ranking process.”
asserted
teams → say → process
Likewise, there’s an eight-spot gap between No. 4 Indiana and No. 12 Ohio State, which is not in the playoff at this point.
asserted
which → ’ → point
Granted, the Buckeyes have one more loss, but they snapped the Hoosiers 22-game winning streak on Oct. 17.
asserted
they → grant → Oct.
Also, Ohio State’s SOS is 21 notches higher than the Hoosiers and Indiana has barely squeaked by in its last three wins.
asserted
Indiana → squeak → wins
As he did last year, Yurachek explained the “pod” system — basically, the committee doesn’t start leaning into those head-to-head matchups unless the teams involved are within four spots of each other.
asserted
teams → do → other
Makes sense — sort of — but remember, this is what got the committee into hot water last year when it leapfrogged Miami over Notre Dame based in part on the ‘Canes early win over the Irish.
asserted
it → make → Irish
This came after the committee placed Miami as many as eight spots behind Notre Dame earlier in the season.
asserted
committee → come → season
Neither team lost after Nov. 1.
asserted
team → lose → Nov.
Injuries and availability matter, except when they don’t
For now, this mostly impacts Ohio State, and it wouldn’t be a surprise for the committee to view the Buckeyes differently with their starting quarterback, Julian Sayin, unavailable because of an injury.
asserted
quarterback → matter → injury
But in evaluating Ohio State, Yurachek said the committee wasn’t so concerned about the quarterback position as it is with the Buckeyes’ suddenly leaky defense after a 30-18 loss to USC last week.
asserted
it → evaluate → USC
But what to make of Yurachek giving Alabama big credit for its big win over Mississippi State on Oct. 3, back when the Bulldogs were ranked and had now-injured QB Kamario Taylor playing at full strength?
asserted
Taylor → make → strength
Nobody’s doubting it was a nice win — but if they’re taking into consideration an injury on a team that’s now 2-4, then why did they downplay Sayin as a reason?
asserted
they → doubt → reason
Arch still favored to go to the playoff, and Lane Kiffin has a chance too
Not long ago, there was buzz about benching Arch Manning and whether Steve Sarkisian had job security at Texas.
asserted
Sarkisian → favor → Texas
Now, the Longhorns are ranked seventh, with wins over Ohio State and Ole Miss that the selection committee likes a lot.
asserted
committee → rank → that
LSU was only ranked 14th, second worst of the six SEC teams with two losses.
asserted
LSU → rank → losses
The good news for coach Lane Kiffin is there is plenty of time to make up for it.
asserted
news → be → it
Wins there would put the Tigers easily in the top 12.
asserted
Wins → put → top
In Group of Six, Boise State in, New Mexico nowhere to be found
New Mexico cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time ever this week.
asserted
Mexico → find → time
But when the CFP rankings came out, the Lobos were nowhere to be found.
asserted
Lobos → come → ?
At 25, Boise State was the only Group of Six team in the rankings and would be the 12th seed if the playoff started today.
asserted
playoff → start → rankings
New Mexico has the 114th-ranked strength of schedule, which obviously hurt the Lobos.
asserted
which → have → Lobos
Even if they win their last four games, they’ll probably need some help to jump ahead of Boise State.
asserted
they → win → State
“We do control our own destiny for conference, we control our destiny for double-digit wins, so those are really the things that we’re most focused on,” coach Jason Eck said in an interview with The Associated Press.
asserted
Eck → control → Press
“When our body of work is done, maybe we’ll do a little bit of campaigning at that point.”
asserted
we → do → point
There is a long way to go
If you hate the CFP rankings, rest easy: There are four weekends of football before the conference championship games so there is plenty of time for the CFP rankings to get a shakeup.
asserted
rankings → be → shakeup
This weekend alone is packed with games that will force the Top 25 and the CFP panel to make changes, including:
No. 1 Miami (8-0) at No. 4 Notre Dame (7-1), No. 2 Georgia (7-1) at No. 12 Mississippi (6-2), No. 3 Utah (8-0) hosting No. 7 BYU (7-1), No. 8 Kentucky (7-1) at No. 16 Tennessee (6-2), No. 9 Alabama (6-2) at No. 15 LSU (6-2) and No. 10 Texas (6-2) at No. 19 Missouri (6-2).
“This has been such a crazy football season, filled with unbelievable parity through the first eight weeks,” Yurachek said.
asserted
Yurachek → pack → weeks
“But you look at the matchups this weekend.
asserted
you → look → matchups
We believe as a committee there will be a significant amount of movement within the entire top-25 ranking.”
asserted
We → believe → ranking
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
