After the midterms, Europe will not get a weaker Trump but one who turns even more to global politics, warns US expert Josef Braml.
asserted
Braml → get → politics
Europe cannot wait this Trump out.
asserted
Europe → wait → Trump
The midterm elections curb Donald Trump’s domestic power.
asserted
elections → curb → power
But that does not automatically mean a weaker US president.
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that → mean → president
On the contrary: if Congress restricts what he can do at home, Trump is likely to show his power even more in the areas where presidents traditionally have greater freedom to act, in foreign, trade and security policy.
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presidents → restrict → policy
For Europe, the most difficult two years of his second term may only be beginning now.
uncertain
years → begin → term
Even while votes are still being counted, a clear swing towards the Democrats is emerging in both chambers of Congress.
asserted
swing → count → Congress
This election was a referendum on his second term, on rising living costs, the consequences of his trade policy and, not least, on the Iran war.
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election → rise → war
But anyone who concludes from this that Trump will now be politically paralysed could be mistaken.
uncertain
Trump → conclude → this
His weakening at home may actually increase his willingness to take risks in foreign policy.
uncertain
weakening → increase → policy
From Congress to the world stage
A Congress controlled by the Democrats can block legislation, influence budget funds, set up investigative committees and bombard the administration with subpoenas.
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Congress → control → subpoenas
A Democratic Senate can also hit Trump’s personnel policy where it hurts.
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it → hit → policy
And this is precisely where Europe’s problem lies.
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problem → lie → ?
The US system of checks and balances limits a president’s room for manoeuvre more in domestic policy than in large parts of foreign policy.
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system → limit → policy
If Trump keeps running into walls at home, the political incentive grows for him to shift to the stage where he can still demonstrate dominance.
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he → keep → dominance
That would also fit his narcissistic leadership style.
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That → fit → style
Trump does not readily accept constraints as a normal part of institutional power sharing.
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Trump → accept → sharing
Defeats are personalised, responsibility is pushed onto others, strength must be displayed.
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strength → personalise → others
Foreign policy offers the ideal stage for that: presidents have considerable room to act, international crises generate maximum attention and real or perceived successes can be attributed to their own will to lead.
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successes → offer → will
This does not mean that Trump will automatically start a new war.
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Trump → mean → war
But Europe must assume that this president will compensate for weakened power at home by exercising his power abroad all the more visibly.
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president → assume → power
The tariff weapon hits Europe first
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weapon → hit → Europe
Trump does not primarily see tariffs as an economic instrument but as a tool of political pressure.
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Trump → see → pressure
Europe has already felt this.
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Europe → feel → this
After the trade arrangement with the EU, a tariff cap of 15% applies to most European exports to the United States, while substantial special burdens, for example on steel and aluminium, remain in place.
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burdens → apply → place
At one point Trump raised the burden on European cars and trucks to 25% and openly linked his policy to the demand that companies should produce in the United States to avoid tariffs.
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companies → raise → tariffs
Audi eventually announced investments of around $4 billion for a US plant.
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Audi → announce → plant
Shortly before the midterms Gernot Döllner even appeared with Trump at a campaign rally in Georgia.
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Döllner → appear → Georgia
This makes Trump’s geo-economic strategy clear: it is not free trade that decides where companies locate but politically induced cost pressure.
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companies → make → ?
German and European companies are supposed to shift capital and jobs to the United States.
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companies → suppose → States
After an election defeat Trump might be tempted to double down right here, because he can sell toughness in trade policy as proof of his ability to act.
uncertain
he → tempt → ability
Europe should not count on a weakened Trump automatically becoming more willing to compromise.
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Trump → count → ?
Washington has particular means in relation to Ukraine to impose conditions on European allies without needing a major domestic legislative process every time.
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Washington → have → process
The same applies to NATO.
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same → apply → NATO
Trump has repeatedly questioned US support for the alliance in public.
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Trump → question → public
His course on Greenland also shows how far his transactional view of foreign policy goes.
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view → show → policy
Even at the NATO summit last summer he once again demanded US control over Greenland, in other words over territory belonging to NATO ally Denmark.
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he → demand → Denmark
It illustrates a fundamental difference in how the alliance is understood.
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alliance → illustrate → difference
Ideally, Europe sees NATO as a community of values and security.
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Europe → see → values
Trump thinks of alliances as deals: who pays what, who gets what and what advantage the United States gains from it.
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States → think → it
…and 45 more, not listed.
The Aporia
