If Donald Trump launches a second round of Operation Fury and persists in trying to bomb their regime to its knees, they will retaliate with a scorched-earth policy across the Middle East.
asserted
they → launch → East
They will escalate from attacks on individual vessels to wholesale attacks on the Persian Gulf’s energy and transport infrastructure, drastically tightening a global energy market that has already drawn down a billion barrels of oil inventory and has no margin left for further shocks.
asserted
that → escalate → shocks
“Simply put, the world has eroded its supply buffers,” says Sultan Al Jaber, the head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.
asserted
Jaber → put → Company
The guards will hit ports, terminals, refineries, pipelines, pumping stations, storage tanks, offshore rigs and logistics hubs.
asserted
guards → hit → ports
They may well hit electricity systems, which are needed to run the region’s desalination plants and provide almost all the drinking water for the coastal cities on the Gulf shore.
uncertain
which → hit → shore
“Attacks will likely involve a combination of mass strikes on critical nodes in oil and gas networks and targeted strikes on remotely located infrastructure,” says Daniel Byman, the director of warfare at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
asserted
Byman → involve → Washington
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei told his senior commanders over the weekend to be ready to hit back “without geographical limitation” with an enlarged “target bank” covering all the enemy’s material and non-material assets.
asserted
Khamenei → tell → assets
We do not know how many Iranian drones and missiles remain hidden in Iran’s mountainous hinterland, but the stockpile is probably large enough to outlast the diminished US supply of interceptors needed to stop them, or at least to outlast the numbers that the US can safely deploy in the Gulf without denuding its forces in the Far East.
asserted
US → know → East
“If the question is whether Iran still has the ability to continue missile and drone operations, the answer is yes,” said Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
asserted
Rezaei → have → Council
“In the event of war, cables, data centres and artificial intelligence facilities could come within range.
uncertain
cables → come → range
We will have a broader plan,” he told Drop Site News.
asserted
he → have → News
Those data centres run the midstream operations that underpin a fifth of the world’s oil and seaborne gas supply.
asserted
that → run → supply
“An attack on any one facility can have a disproportionate impact on the entire network,” says Byman.
asserted
Byman → have → network
Windward Maritime Intelligence says that in late October three Iranian ships went dark and hovered over the data corridor off Oman, grand central junction for the telecom nodes of the Gulf.
asserted
ships → say → Gulf
They carried out this operation beneath the noses of two US aircraft carrier battle groups.
asserted
They → carry → groups
The Iranians will launch commando raids deep into Gulf territory with the help of Iraqi Shia militia groups, attacking well-heads and oil and gas crews with mortars and grenades.
asserted
Iranians → launch → mortars
The global petroleum system is already under more stress than suggested by the headline price of Brent crude, which has dropped back to $US106 a barrel on the latest talk that Trump will declare victory and get out.
uncertain
Trump → suggest → victory
“We had a war with Iran.
asserted
We → have → Iran
We won,” he said on Monday.
asserted
he → win → Monday
This was instantly overtaken by reports that the Pentagon is still angling for one last big publicity victory, something Ayatollah Khamenei is determined to deny the enemy that maimed him and killed his father, wife, son and sister.
asserted
that → overtake → father
The refined products we consume reflect a world closer to $US180 oil.
asserted
we → consume → oil
Lest we forget, it is diesel that powers American agriculture, trucking and industry.
asserted
that → forget → agriculture
It seeps into the cost structure of everything.
asserted
It → seep → everything
It embeds inflation and pollutes the bond market.
asserted
It → embed → market
The reasons for this drastic divergence between crude and distillates ought to be clear by now (but are not): roughly 6 per cent of the world’s refining capacity has been knocked out in Russia and the Gulf, slashing global crude demand and displacing – but not removing – the acute pain of this energy shock.
asserted
cent → knock → shock
Leasing fees for large tankers from the Gulf to Asia have risen 12-fold since the war began to over $US1.2 million ($1.7 million) a day.
asserted
war → rise → million
Insurance premiums have risen 25-fold.
asserted
premiums → rise → ?
The logistics chain has gone haywire.
asserted
chain → go → ?
Russell Hardy, chief executive of commodities company Vitol, says we are in an untenable equilibrium that could snap at any moment.
uncertain
that → say → moment
“Can we cope with much more of this disruption?
asserted
we → cope → disruption
I think the answer is no,” he told the Adipec forum in Abu Dhabi this week.
asserted
he → think → Dhabi
Flows from the Middle East have recovered to 75 per cent of pre-war volumes under US Navy’s protection scheme – though a chunk is passing via the Iranian channel, on Iranian terms.
asserted
chunk → recover → terms
But the International Energy Agency says a quarter is still missing.
asserted
quarter → say → ?
Oil veterans warn that a second and wider phase of the war at this juncture, with such depleted reserves and non-essential demand already squeezed, risks metastasising into the sort of crisis most of us have not seen in our lifetimes, testing Western societies to near breaking point.
asserted
most → warn → point
“The frictions are only going to get greater,” said Jeff Currie, the founder of Real Macro and Goldman Sachs’ former energy guru.
asserted
Currie → go → Macro
“What’s happening in France should be mind-boggling to everyone.
asserted
happening → happen → everyone
The reality is that the same type of civil unrest is knocking on the doorstep of almost every Western nation right now,” he told the Mario Nawfal podcast.
asserted
he → knock → podcast
The Trump cabinet is split into two camps over Iran.
asserted
cabinet → split → Iran
Both misunderstand their enemy.
asserted
Both → misunderstand → enemy
Both overestimate American power and overlook the strategic agency of the other side.
asserted
Both → overestimate → side
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
