Photo via Fox News

Pollsters missed the mark again — but this time, it wasn't Republicans they underestimated

Read the original at Fox News ↗
Cite

Steinhauser, P. (2026, November 4). Pollsters missed the mark again — but this time, it wasn't Republicans they underestimated. Fox News. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pollsters-missed-mark-again-but-this-time-wasnt-republicans-they-underestimated

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Fox News · collected 2026-11-04 · by Paul Steinhauser

Quick Summary

Pollsters acknowledge they underestimated Democratic support in recent midterm elections, contrary to past patterns where Republican turnout was often underestimated. Veteran pollster Chris Anderson noted significant undercounts of Democrats this time around, while Daron Shaw and David Paleologos agreed that polls missed the margin by which Democrats won key races like Texas and Kansas. The article highlights a shift from previous criticisms that GOP voters were underrepresented in polls, with experts now admitting to underestimating Democratic enthusiasm and turnout.
Written by AI on 2026-11-05, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

In the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats surprisingly performed better than pre-election polls predicted, capturing significant majorities in both the House and Senate. Veteran pollster Chris Anderson acknowledged that Democratic support was likely underestimated by two to three points, while Republican claims of undercounted GOP voters did not materialize as expected. This outcome highlights a shift from previous trends where polls historically underpredicted Republican turnout, especially among MAGA supporters. President Donald Trump had previously criticized the accuracy of such polls, suggesting they were rigged or fake. However, this time, it was the Democratic vote share that exceeded expectations, leading to a decisive blue wave victory.

Written for “Pollsters Miss Predictions Again” on 2026-11-05, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.45, but all 4 of its quote(s) are attributed speech - words the article quotes from someone, not the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 129559: attributed speech only · logged 2026-11-05

Story

📰 Pollsters Miss Predictions Again
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Silver Bulletin
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 12 claims
“The articles discuss different aspects of polling accuracy and its implications for political forecasts, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 9 of 68 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss related issues around polling accuracy and credibility but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
New York Post
Hedges 2 of 67 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles cover different aspects of similar events (Trump's comments on midterms and poll accuracy), but describe distinct happenings with different focuses.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
Hedges 2 of 35 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of poll accuracy and expectations for election outcomes, but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
20
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 20 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
68/100
Fox News's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-05 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Fox News · 6652 article(s) · 13 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 13 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Paul Steinhauser
44 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
🔮 In the lead-up to the November midterms, the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) put its support behind California’s Proposition 40, a measure that would impose a one-time 5% tax on billionaires in the state.
🔮 In the battle for the House, thanks to the stunning blue tsunami, Democrats cleared the 218-seat threshold needed to recapture the chamber. But with plenty of races still outstanding, the big question is just how large a majority will Democrats end up with when all the votes are counted.
🔮 Abdul El-Sayed, who became the veritable face of this midterm cycle acting as the GOP’s boogeyman for Democratic policies across the country, is projected to topple former Rep. Mike Rogers in what was one of the most-watched contests of the election.
🔮 Jackson's victory will end Collins’ nearly three-decade career in the Senate.
🔮 With his victory, Crowley will succeed retiring two-term Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and makes history as Wisconsin's first Black politician elected governor.
🔮 Later in the campaign he unveiled a plan which he said would also lower the cost of healthcare, housing, home and auto insurance, electricity, and even higher education.
🔮 I never in a million years thought I would be running for federal office, let alone a US Senate seat, but I have 20 years of experience working inside America's broken healthcare system, coming face to face with all of Washington's failures in my hospital exam rooms.
🔮 Rep. Byron Donalds just made history as the first Black politician to win a gubernatorial election in Florida as Fox News Decision Desk projected the congressman winning Tuesday's election. He is also the first Black Republican in the nation's history elected governor.
🔮 The race was projected as a victory for Cooper with 57.63 votes counted, with 66.40% going to the former Democratic governor and 31.96% going to Whatley.
🔮 The Fox News Decision Desk projects that Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas of New Hampshire will defeat former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu in a competitive and expensive swing state race.
Also by Paul Steinhauser
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 44 articles by Paul Steinhauser →

Topics

Democratic Democrats GOP House Republicans

Subjects

Democrats NORP · 7× Democratic NORP · 4× Republicans NORP · 4× GOP ORG · 3× Fox News Digital ORG · 2× House ORG · 2× Paleologos PERSON · 2× Republican NORP · 2× Shaw PERSON · 2× Texas GPE · 2×

Narrative

Daron Shaw, a veteran GOP pollster and the Republican partner on the Fox News Poll, emphasized, "If we’re talking about the direction of the polls, they were clearly correct." But Shaw added "we probably underestimated Democratic vote share by a couple of points."
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-05

Claims (20 extracted, 0 hedged)

In the weeks leading up to Election Day, President Donald Trump repeatedly railed against public opinion polls that pointed to a potential blue wave for the Democrats in the midterms. asserted
that → lead → midterms
"I think it’s fake polls," the president argued. asserted
president → think → ?
"A lot of the polls are rigged." asserted
lot → rig → polls
It was an argument repeated by other top Republicans. asserted
It → repeat → Republicans
"The polls are all wrong all around the country," House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized Sunday at a Trump rally in Iowa. asserted
Johnson → emphasize → Iowa
"I'm telling you, they're undercounting Republicans because Republicans are not participating in these polls anymore. asserted
Republicans → tell → polls
While public opinion polls have a history over the past decade of undercounting GOP voters — especially MAGA supporters — this time, pollsters say Democratic support, rather than Republican turnout, was underestimated. asserted
support → have → voters
"Polls probably, on average, undercounted Democrats significantly," veteran pollster Chris Anderson, the longtime Democratic partner on the Fox News Poll, said. asserted
Anderson → undercounte → Poll
Anderson, pointing to the massive blue wave that allowed Democrats to decisively recapture the House and Senate majorities in the midterms, told Fox News Digital, "This is sort of a seismic election and you can’t model for a seismic election. asserted
you → point → election
We definitely didn’t undercount Republicans, that’s for sure." asserted
that → undercount → Republicans
Daron Shaw, a veteran GOP pollster and the Republican partner on the Fox News Poll, emphasized, "If we’re talking about the direction of the polls, they were clearly correct." But Shaw added "we probably underestimated Democratic vote share by a couple of points." asserted
we → emphasize → points
Shaw highlighted that "directionally, we knew heading into Election Day that Kansas was a dog fight. asserted
Kansas → highlight → Day
We knew that Texas was probably shifting blue. asserted
Texas → know → ?
That was just something that people had trouble getting their heads around but the data were pretty clear on that. asserted
data → have → that
I guess on Texas, the magnitude was surprising." asserted
magnitude → guess → Texas
Pollster David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, agreed that "in general" there was "a slight undercount" of Democrats in public opinion surveys. asserted
Paleologos → agree → surveys
He noted that polls also undercounted Democrats in the 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, where the Democratic candidates both won by larger-than-expected double-digit margins. asserted
candidates → note → margins
"We were low on the margins of victory," Paleologos told Fox News Digital. asserted
Paleologos → tell → Digital
"We were all undercounting Democrats." asserted
We → undercounte → Democrats
And pointing to the longstanding GOP case that MAGA voters are undercounted, Paleologos said, "I think to be fair going forward, it can't be a one-sided question anymore." asserted
it → point → case
💬Give feedback · no sign-in needed

No sign-in needed for now. Your note is sent without a name, so it cannot be answered.

🕘History 🎫Support