We’d like to extend another word of thanks for following FLIPR, our midterm election coverage, and our liveblog last night.
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We → like → FLIPR
We’re really pleased with how everything went, and I can’t express how much more fulfilling it is to run our own business than to work for a big, careless corporation.
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it → ’re → corporation
I do need to catch up on rest after we published seven stories, plus the liveblog, within a three-day window.
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we → need → window
That’s not typical for us; we aim for something more like three newsletters per week, plus regularly updating a host of models and statistical tools.
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we → ’ → models
Nor are those all politics posts; we also regularly cover sports, AI and sometimes some “wild card” topics.
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we → cover → sports
(To control what types of emails appear in your inbox, see here.)
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types → control → inbox
I’m also aware that one can go overboard on post-election recriminations: I think we probably did that in 2024, for instance.
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we → ’m → instance
We also may be doing some hiring.
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We → do → hiring
Still, last night’s results deserve deeper consideration than most elections.
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results → deserve → elections
As measured by the change in the House popular vote, they featured the second-biggest midterm swing since World War II, which should be around 15 points toward Democrats once all votes are counted.
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votes → measure → Democrats
Democrats will gain 7 to 9 Senate seats — Alaska and Mississippi are pending — along with flipping around 45 House seats and, once all votes are counted in Kansas, probably 6 governorships.
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votes → gain → Kansas
Unlike some recent Democratic maps that were concentrated in smaller coastal states, these occurred broadly in basically every corner of the country.
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these → concentrate → country
Once new terms begin, Democrats will control the governorships in states totaling around three-quarters of the U.S. population; in the Electoral College, this would translate to a 392-146 landslide.1
There were plenty of signature wins too.
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this → begin → wins
Adam Hamilton became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Kansas since 1932.
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Hamilton → become → 1932
Not only did James Talarico win by double digits in Texas; Gina Hinojosa flipped the governorship there.
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Hinojosa → win → governorship
Keisha Lance Bottoms became the nation’s first Black female governor.
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Bottoms → become → ?
They won a Senate seat in South Carolina, and if prediction markets are right, they’ll flip Mississippi too.
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they → win → Mississippi
The repudiation that Democrats have been waiting 10 years for against Donald Trump finally came, and bigly.
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Democrats → wait → Trump
Friend-of-the-newsletter Sean Trende has written that this was a “100-year flood”, the usual nomenclature of waves and tsunamis not quite sufficing.
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nomenclature → write → waves
There are deep implications for the future of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party and the Supreme Court, and we’ll be covering all of that.
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we → be → that
Polls (and models) also had a lot on the line, although the results take some care to interpret.
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results → have → care
On the one hand, the results back up our theory that the direction of polling bias is unpredictable; on the other hand, it was a pretty big and broad lowballing of Democrats.
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it → back → Democrats
But let’s keep today’s post relatively simple.
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’s → let → post
I’ll look at what happened after other waves of roughly this magnitude.
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what → look → magnitude
This is the seventh time since World War II that a midterm featured a swing of 10 points or more; the others were 1946, 1966, 1974, 1994, 2006 and 2010.
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others → feature → points
For each one, I’ll ask a few simple questions: what caused the wave, how similar it is to this year, and most importantly, what came next.
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what → ask → year
As I expressed to Ezra Klein before the election, this midterm felt “momentous” because it potentially reflects the end of the Trump Era and the transition into … well, who knows what.
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who → express → what
But two years ago, everyone was talking about a conservative “vibe shift”, and that obviously didn’t pan out.
1946 (13.2-point swing)
When it happened: During Harry Truman’s first (unelected) term.
Outcome: Republicans gained 55 House seats, 12 Senate seats and 3 governorships.
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Republicans → talk → seats
Why it happened:
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it → happen → ?
An abrupt shift from the wartime to the peacetime economy, which had produced a recession in 1945, followed by supply-chain shortages, high inflation and strikes;
Truman’s lower stature as compared to FDR and his low popularity ratings;
Perhaps pent-up backlash toward Democrats and lots of viable targets after four consecutive FDR terms.
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which → produce → terms
What happened next: Truman upset Thomas Dewey in 1948, and Democrats made unusually large gains in Congress for a presidential year, basically fully reversing their 1946 losses.
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Democrats → happen → losses
Not officially a lame duck — the 22nd Amendment exempted him — he stood down after considering a third term in 1952, and Dwight D. Eisenhower won in a landslide.
Did it mark the end of an era/beginning of a new one?
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it → exempt → one
I’d argue no.
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I → argue → ?
The end of World War II was a huge inflection point for the world, of course, and marked the emergence of the United States as a hegemonic superpower.
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end → mark → superpower
But when I’ve covered this in the past, I consider everything from 1932 through 1968 to be part of “The Long Liberal Era”, with FDR and LBJ ushering in the New Deal and Great Society, respectively.
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FDR → cover → Deal
Applicability to 2026: If you follow politics, you’ll have a direct memory of some elections.
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you → follow → elections
The first one I remember watching — really just fragments, flickers of Reagan’s dominant map on the network newscasts — was in 1984.
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I → remember → 1984
But the elections your parents remember will also be part of the “training set”: the collective memory that shapes conventional wisdom about how elections work.
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elections → remember → wisdom
1946 came before either of those, and that probably biases me against wanting to think it’s particularly relevant to today.
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it → come → today
You can draw some parallels: is the emergence of AI like the end of the war?
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emergence → draw → war
…and 97 more, not listed.
The Aporia
