THE election results in America this week portend a sea change, and they have important ramifications for Pakistan.
asserted
they → portend → Pakistan
The Democrats have taken both the House and the Senate in a rout that reached Texas and Kansas.
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that → take → Texas
Anger over living costs, tariffs, and the war on Iran all played their part.
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Anger → play → part
For the remaining two years of his term, President Donald Trump will face a Congress armed with subpoena power and eager to use it.
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Trump → remain → it
Much of the world has spent two years trying to cope with Trump.
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Much → spend → Trump
Meanwhile, the leadership in Pakistan flamboyantly embraced him, though let’s not underestimate how well that worked.
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that → embrace → him
It got us lower tariffs, a White House lunch, and, above all, a central role when the Iran war needed an exit ramp.
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war → get → ramp
The question now is what that embrace will cost us as the man on the receiving end of it begins to lose his grip on Washington.
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man → cost → Washington
Pakistan has veered too close to Trump, and this might not go down well in the near future.
uncertain
this → veer → future
The April ceasefire that we helped broker was a genuine achievement, and I said so at the time.
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I → help → time
The memorandum that followed in June has since collapsed, but the credit earned in those weeks still stands.
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credit → follow → weeks
Yet all of it could well come to be overshadowed by the single act of having nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize in so conspicuous and overly generous a manner.
uncertain
all → come → manner
Showering the man with extravagant praise in highly public settings might have worked to win him over in the short term.
uncertain
Showering → shower → term
But the praise kept coming long after the point had been made.
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point → keep → ?
In September, he was telling the UN General Assembly that our prime minister credits him with saving 30 million lives.
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minister → tell → lives
Last month, on the day the Nobel went to someone else, the prime minister was on X lauding his “historic role” in South Asia.
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minister → go → Asia
These things do not expire.
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things → expire → ?
There is a risk they get tagged onto Pakistan in the years to come, once Americans settle on their verdict of this presidency.
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Americans → be → presidency
What looks clever in one season reads very differently at a hearing in the next.
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looks → look → next
Even more dangerous is the fact that the Trump family’s business dealings might come under congressional investigation.
uncertain
dealings → come → investigation
Reuters reported in September that probes could begin as early as February, with Trump-linked crypto firms of particular interest.
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probes → report → interest
Senator Richard Blumenthal, who is in line to chair an investigations panel, has promised to use his subpoena power.
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who → chair → power
The same senator was asking questions about World Liberty Financial’s Pakistan deal in May last year.
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senator → ask → May
If any ties lead back here, they could tie the country to the affair; the threads are already in public view.
uncertain
threads → lead → view
In January, our finance minister signed a memorandum with a World Liberty affiliate concerning its USD1 stablecoin.
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minister → sign → stablecoin
In September, the defence ministry placed a limited order with Powerus, a drone company in which two of Trump’s sons are investors.
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two → place → sons
No wrongdoing has been established.
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wrongdoing → establish → ?
The White House denies any conflict of interest, and as of July the stablecoin deal had produced no known transactions at all.
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deal → deny → transactions
But I have described that memorandum as an instrument of access, and access is exactly what investigators will want to look into.
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investigators → describe → what
What looks clever in one season reads very differently at a hearing in the next.
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looks → look → next
These risks, however, are rooted more in optics and perceptions than in realpolitik.
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risks → root → realpolitik
Pakistan’s thrust to find a place in the new regional order emerging in the Middle East must continue unabated.
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thrust → find → East
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, and the Tehran huddle I wrote about last week, which Field Marshal Asim Munir himself proposed, have a logic of their own that does not depend on who chairs which committee in Washington.
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who → write → Washington
The most likely outcome is that the Trump administration comes to be consumed by its wrangling with the new Congress and loses its moorings in foreign policy.
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administration → come → policy
A White House fighting hearings and subpoenas at home will have little bandwidth for the world.
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House → fight → world
This could produce a hazardous moment.
uncertain
This → produce → moment
A beleaguered and irrational president might try an adventure abroad to distract from his troubles at home, and the adventure is ready to hand.
uncertain
adventure → try → home
The blockade of Iran remains in place, reports in September said he saw a fresh bombing campaign as likely after the midterms, and Iran’s Supreme Leader warned on Wednesday that the war’s scope will widen if the attacks are repeated.
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attacks → remain → Wednesday
But that seems unlikely given the stakes.
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that → seem → stakes
This is the war voters have just punished him for, and on the eve of the vote he himself cast doubt on resuming strikes.
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he → punish → strikes
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
