DONALD TRUMP RESPONDED to Tuesday’s Republican debacle with his usual humility.
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TRUMP → respond → humility
“I wasn’t on the Ballot,” he wrote on Truth Social, “and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!”
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we → write → LANDSLIDE
He’s full of it.
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He → ’ → it
For weeks, at pre-election rallies, Trump told voters to act as though he were on the ballot.
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he → tell → ballot
And they did.
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they → do → ?
Some conservatives voted for him, but many stayed home.
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many → vote → him
And tens of millions of Americans came out to vote against him.
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millions → come → him
Trump killed his own party.
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Trump → kill → party
The exit polls from the past three midterms prove it.1
The simplest index of Trump’s effect is an explicit question in the exit polls: “Was one reason for your vote for U.S. House today to express support for Donald Trump,” was it “to express opposition to Donald Trump,” or was he “not a factor”?
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he → prove → Trump
In 2018, voters who said they were expressing opposition to Trump outnumbered those who were expressing support, 38 percent to 26 percent.
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who → say → percent
In 2022, the AP and network exit polls diverged somewhat, but again, both found that opposers outnumbered supporters by about 12 points.
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opposers → diverge → points
Forty-four percent of voters in House races said they were expressing opposition to Trump; only 16 percent said they were expressing support for him.
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they → say → him
That’s a 28-point gap, more than twice the previous margin.
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That → ’ → ?
When you compute how many votes that gap cost House Republicans, it works out to more than a quarter of the electorate.
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it → compute → electorate
In all three midterms of the Trump era, including the 2022 midterm when he was out of office, Trump has weighed down his party.
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Trump → include → party
Each time, most people who said he wasn’t a factor voted for House Republicans.
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he → say → Republicans
And each time, most people who said he was a factor voted for House Democrats.
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he → say → Democrats
Overwhelmingly, people who approve of his job performance vote for Republicans in the House, while those who disapprove of his job performance vote for Democrats.
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who → approve → Democrats
In 2018, roughly 45 percent of voters approved of Trump’s performance, while 55 percent disapproved.
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percent → approve → performance
Around 45 percent of voters strongly disapproved of him.
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percent → disapprove → him
In 2022, exit polls didn’t ask the approval question, because he wasn’t the president.
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he → ask → question
But this year, the question returned, and Trump’s numbers were far worse than before.
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numbers → return → ?
Only 37 percent of voters approved of his performance; 63 percent disapproved.
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percent → approve → performance
Fifty-four percent of voters strongly disapproved.
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percent → disapprove → voters
That’s a significant increase from his previous strong-disapproval number.
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That → ’ → number
Eighty-six percent of Trump disapprovers voted for House Democrats in this election.
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percent → vote → election
When you multiply the 63 percent by the 86 percent, you find that these people made up 54 percent of the electorate.
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people → multiply → electorate
Trump often brags that when he’s on the ballot, he brings out additional Republican voters who don’t show up in midterms.
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who → brag → midterms
That’s true.
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That → ’ → ?
But the extra turnout he generated in 2020 and 2024 masked an underlying decline in his support among the general population.
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he → generate → population
To take one example: In the final Reuters/Ipsos poll before the 2018 midterms, 41 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s performance in office; 53 percent disapproved.
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percent → take → office
In the final Reuters/Ipsos poll before this year’s midterms, only 32 percent approved of Trump’s performance; 64 percent disapproved.
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percent → approve → performance
That’s a plunge from minus-12 to minus-32.
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That → ’ → minus-32
And between the two polls, the percentage of Americans who “strongly” disapproved of Trump’s performance swelled from 38 percent to 50 percent.
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who → disapprove → percent
When the general population is two-to-one against a president, it’s unlikely—to put it charitably—that he would have benefited his party, on balance, by boosting turnout.
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he → ’ → turnout
A THIRD MEASURE of Trump’s waning power is the shrinkage of the MAGA vote.
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MEASURE → wan → vote
At his rallies in recent weeks, he routinely played a video clip of CNN analyst Harry Enten extolling Trump’s grip on the MAGA base.
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Enten → play → base
In the clip, Enten noted that 98 percent of self-identified MAGA supporters planned to vote for House Republicans.
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percent → note → Republicans
While gloating about the 98 percent, Trump missed the real story: As a share of the electorate, MAGA voters are in decline.
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voters → gloat → decline
In 2022, 32 percent of voters identified themselves as MAGA Republicans.
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percent → identify → Republicans
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
