Marco Rubio is on resignation watch from both sides of the Atlantic in the expectation he will quit to launch a bid to be the next US president, The Independent can reveal.
asserted
Independent → quit → bid
Insiders say the US secretary of state and White House national security adviser is preparing for the race to be the Republican nominee in November 2028, with Vice President J. D. Vance currently his main rival.
asserted
Vance → say → November
Even before the disastrous midterm results – when the Republicans lost both the House and the Senate – senior party sources in the US and senior figures in the UK government told The Independent that Mr Rubio could quit his senior role in president Donald Trump’s administration.
uncertain
Rubio → lose → administration
The sources doubled down on the expectation after the midterms gave a damning indictment of the Trump presidency, with the Democrats seizing Republican strongholds such as Kansas and Texas.
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Democrats → double → Kansas
Mr Rubio is one of up to five members of Mr Trump’s current cabinet who are thought to be preparing to “run for the hills” in the aftermath of the midterms humiliation.
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who → think → humiliation
One Washington insider told The Independent that Mr Rubio needs to “distance himself from the Iran war and pin that one on Trump.”
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Rubio → tell → Trump
The Rubio ally said: “It makes complete sense for him to step down and leave the administration.
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him → say → administration
“Rubio is the leading candidate at the moment to be the [Republican] nominee.
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Rubio → lead → moment
He’s definitely ahead of Vance.
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He → ’ → Vance
“But he cannot run while he is still secretary of state and being tied to the administration will only harm his prospects anyway.”
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tied → run → prospects
Vice president Vance came out quickly after the disastrous results, blaming the war in Iran in a bid to distance himself from it.
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Vance → come → it
It is thought Mr Trump could pin the blame for the policy and subsequent midterm losses on defense secretary Pete Hegseth, with Mr Rubio and White House chief of staff Susie Wiles also in line to be potential scapegoats.
uncertain
Rubio → think → line
“The real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone …
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we → lose → everyone
The reason we lost is the war.
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we → lose → ?
The president himself said so last night,” Mr Vance said in scathing remarks.
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Vance → say → remarks
”Any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”
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we → go → ?
Meanwhile, it had been noticed in the UK government, and among Republicans, that Mr Rubio has already played a “quieter role” in regards to Iran – despite being the lead on US foreign policy.
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Rubio → notice → policy
The US secretary of state has made a strong impression with all three UK foreign secretaries he has worked with including David Lammy, Yvette Cooper and now Ed Miliband.
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he → make → Lammy
Ms Cooper is understood to regard him as “brilliantly intelligent” and “very good to engage with.”
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Cooper → understand → him
One senior UK government source told The Independent: “We are looking to see what he will do after the midterms.
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he → tell → midterms
It seems unlikely that he will stick around.
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he → seem → ?
He would make a strong presidential candidate and we expect him to run.”
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him → make → candidate
Another Republican source said: “Rubio will be gone after the midterms.
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Rubio → say → midterms
“The country has completely turned against Trump.
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country → turn → Trump
People cannot even say where Iran is on a map and do not get this war.
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Iran → say → war
“The cost of gas has really p***** people off.”
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cost → p → people
They added: “Once the Democrats control the House and Senate we are just going to see attempts at impeachment and nobody wants to stick around for that.”
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nobody → add → that
Mr Rubio’s ascension from a safe Florida Senate seat to serve as America’s top diplomat has seen him grow closer to Mr Trump, with whom he notoriously clashed during his first attempt at a White House run a decade ago.
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he → serve → run
The man – who the president once mocked as “Liddle Marco” – is now firmly ensconced in the innermost circle of Trumpworld.
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president → mock → Trumpworld
He enjoys a level of authority over America’s foreign policy apparatus equaled only by the late Henry Kissinger — the only other person to simultaneously serve as secretary of state and national security adviser.
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He → enjoy → state
Early in Mr Trump’s second term, he began taking on other roles, first being tasked with service as the acting archivist of the United States and the acting head of the US Agency for International Development in February 2025.
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he → begin → February
Mr Trump appointed him as his acting national security adviser three months later.
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Trump → appoint → adviser
But even as he has grown closer to Mr Trump, Mr Rubio has found himself on the outside of wide swathes of foreign policy matters normally well within the secretary of state’s ambit.
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Rubio → grow → ambit
On both matters of Middle East policy, and the administration’s work to bring about an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine, Mr Rubio has largely been sidelined in favour of Mr Trump’s amateur envoys – real estate developer turned “Special Envoy for Peace Missions” Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law.
asserted
Rubio → bring → law
Still, Mr Rubio’s prominence in the administration’s top echelon has put him in a pole position for the race to be Mr Trump’s successor, should he choose to enter it.
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he → put → it
But a second campaign would inevitably invite scrutiny of his role in the administration’s controversial policies in Latin America, including the campaign of airstrikes against small boats in the Caribbean alleged to be carrying narcotics, which critics have decried as extra-judicial executions.
asserted
critics → invite → executions
He has also taken a leading role in overseeing the cozy and opaque relationship the White House has developed with interim Venezuelan president Delcy Rodriguez following the US-orchestrated ouster of Nicolas Maduro by way of a brazen military operation in January.
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House → take → January
Mr Rubio has attempted to downplay speculation about his future, telling reporters in September that he had “no plans at this time” for a White House bid as he remained “100 per cent focused” on his roles in the administration.
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he → attempt → administration
He has also indicated he would stand down if Mr Vance runs.
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Vance → indicate → ?
One longtime political operative who has extensive experience in Mr Rubio’s home state told The Independent they would not be surprised if he does exit the administration, but suggested he may hold off from doing so if it would mean helping to oversee the fall of the communist government in Cuba.
uncertain
it → have → Cuba
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
