And – BOOM! – all of a sudden, the fight for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination is engaged in full force.
asserted
fight → engage → force
Allowing the defeated a few days to bury their political dead is apparently another Washington tradition we no longer observe.
asserted
we → allow → dead
Tuesday's demolition of the GOP, followed by Vice President JD Vance's extraordinary Wednesday morning post about the Iran war, has turned the contest to succeed Donald Trump into an immediate, bruising struggle.
asserted
demolition → follow → struggle
Just over a year before the first nominating contests, Republicans are shopping for their first presidential nominee who isn't Trump since 2012.
asserted
who → shop → 2012
Vance's chances of becoming the nominee appear to have diminished in the blink of a day.
asserted
chances → become → day
What is emphatically clear is that if he wants to be elected president in 2028, he will have to fight fiercely for it.
asserted
he → want → it
'The reason we lost is the war,' Vance wrote on X Wednesday, citing a pollster's findings about Trump voters who defected to Democrats.
asserted
who → lose → Democrats
Sources say the Vice President had given some colleagues in the White House a heads up before posting but others, at a senior level, were shocked and alarmed when his tweet popped up on their phones.
asserted
tweet → say → phones
This was an election autopsy with an obvious purpose: put Vance on the record on the side of the voters, his head and his heart.
asserted
This → put → voters
The Wall Street Journal editorial page accused Vance of weakening Trump's negotiating position with Tehran and overlooking other reasons for defeat.
asserted
page → accuse → defeat
Columnist Kimberley Strassel ridiculed his analysis, emphasizing tariffs, Washington's misplaced priorities and other conspicuous omissions.
asserted
Strassel → ridicule → tariffs
Ari Fleischer, George W Bush's former spokesman, offered a pointed amendment: the problem was the unsuccessful ceasefire Vance negotiated, rather than the decision to fight.
asserted
Vance → offer → amendment
On X, Vance received both applause for frankness and the reasonable question of where this candor had been hiding while he defended the administration.
asserted
he → receive → administration
Donald Trump Jr approvingly reposted Vance's statement; President Trump himself said he thought it was good.
asserted
it → reposte → statement
Even so, it was widely understood as an attempt to establish distance from the President.
asserted
it → understand → President
Even a family-approved separation is still a split.
asserted
separation → approve → ?
Vance's chances of becoming the nominee appear to have diminished in the blink of a day
Donald Trump Jr approvingly reposted Vance's statement; President Trump himself said he thought it was good
Democrats noticed, too.
asserted
Democrats → become → statement
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, a prospective 2028 candidate in his own right, accused Vance of trying to escape Trump's shadow almost before the polls had closed, delivering the less-than-gubernatorial verdict, 'JD stinks, man,' and warning that tweeting wouldn't rescue him.
asserted
tweeting → accuse → him
Shapiro, like other Democrats, loves being part of open season on the incumbent vice president.
asserted
Shapiro → love → president
Then came Texas Senator Ted Cruz's lengthy X post, describing the dimensions and causes of the Blue tsunami, faulting Republicans for failing to address the cost of living.
asserted
post → come → living
He criticized tariffs and the prolonged Iran conflict while prescribing free-market conservatism.
asserted
He → criticize → conservatism
Cruz is offering Republicans a familiar product, repackaged for customers who have recently discovered that faux populism can be expensive.
asserted
populism → offer → customers
Ron DeSantis, the living embodiment of the colorful maxim about how folks who run for president once don't usually get it out of their systems until they are dead and buried, also made clear that 2028 is very much on his mind.
asserted
is → live → mind
At a press conference in Tallahassee on Wednesday, he described something approaching Republican extinction while presenting Florida as evidence that sincere conservative government can survive after MAGA flames out or its fervent supporters feel betrayed.
asserted
supporters → describe → evidence
On Fox News with Laura Ingraham, DeSantis faulted both congressional Republicans and the White House for losing voters' trust.
asserted
DeSantis → fault → trust
The implied comparison required no subtitles: Washington talked; Tallahassee delivered.
asserted
Tallahassee → require → subtitles
Waiting in the wings is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose post-election silence has spared him membership in the Republican circular firing squad.
asserted
silence → wait → squad
The secretary offers experience, polish and appeal to Republicans uneasy with Vance.
asserted
secretary → offer → Vance
He also shares responsibility for the administration's foreign policy.
asserted
He → share → policy
Cruz is offering Republicans a familiar product, repackaged for customers who have recently discovered that faux populism can be expensive
Ron DeSantis described something approaching Republican extinction while presenting Florida as evidence that sincere conservative government can survive after MAGA flames out or its fervent supporters feel betrayed
My sources still believe that if Vance runs, Rubio won't and that Rubio might pass on the chance, even if Vance is a no-go.
uncertain
Vance → offer → chance
Both men are aware of how many times they have been captured on video celebrating the historical excellence of a president who has now been labeled by the electorate as failed and unpopular.
asserted
who → capture → electorate
My working expectation is a Vance-DeSantis-Cruz battle, or a Rubio-DeSantis-Cruz battle if circumstances change, with the former still more likely than the latter but neither a sure thing.
asserted
neither → change → latter
Being vice president helps enormously until you need to explain what, precisely, you were doing there.
asserted
you → help → what
George HW Bush, VP to Ronald Reagan, won the 1988 nomination after an embarrassing third-place Iowa finish and much derision.
asserted
Bush → win → finish
Al Gore emerged from Bill Clinton's shadow and ultimately swept his 2000 contests but first endured a serious challenge from New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley.
asserted
Gore → emerge → Bradley
Neither Bush nor Gore were given an early endorsement from the president under whom they served nor were they given the nomination on government stationery.
asserted
they → give → stationery
They both earned it.
asserted
They → earn → it
If Vance runs, he will have to claim the successes, explain the failures and establish independence without provoking the man whose voters he needs.
uncertain
he → run → voters
His boss, meanwhile, is unlikely to discover a late-life passion for staying out of the news.
asserted
boss → discover → news
Waiting in the wings is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose post-election silence has spared him membership in the Republican circular firing squad
asserted
silence → wait → squad
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
