He’s down, but not quite out.
asserted
He → ’ → ?
Barring divine or other intervention, Donald Trump will remain in the Oval Office for a further two years and 10 weeks.
asserted
Trump → bar → years
Or, as the White House put it in a plaintive social media post brimming with neediness: “PSA [Public Service Announcement]: Trump is still your president.”
asserted
Trump → put → neediness
But that’s not the only reason why the global celebrations that greeted the Democratic tidal wave that swept Republicans out of even their deepest heartlands should be tempered, if only a tad.
asserted
that → ’ → heartlands
Don’t get me wrong, the results of Tuesday’s midterm elections are cause for genuine international jubilation.
asserted
results → get → jubilation
The 16% swing to Democrats in the popular vote for the House of Representatives was greater even than the 11.2% swing recorded in the Watergate midterms of November 1974, following the resignation in disgrace of Richard Nixon.
asserted
swing → record → Nixon
Trump had worked hard for many months to undermine these elections, either by gerrymandering districts in his favour or preparing the ground for a later claim the vote was rigged, but to no avail: the democratic system proved too resilient, and the American public too determined to have their say.
uncertain
public → work → say
And have it they did, in a voice loud and clear.
asserted
they → do → voice
Beyond the US, the temptation will be strong to see this as the moment the wheels came off the authoritarian, nationalist populist bandwagon that has rolled through so much of our politics this past decade.
asserted
that → see → politics
Viktor Orbán’s fall in April was pivotal, but the humiliation of Trump was always going to matter more.
asserted
humiliation → go → Trump
And now it is sputtering.
asserted
it → sputter → ?
But the risk is that those who have fought nationalist populism will take Tuesday’s success as their cue to relax.
asserted
who → fight → cue
That would be to repeat the mistake made by Trump himself – and too many others – in November 2024, when he interpreted his win over Kamala Harris not as the cry of a public fed up with rising grocery bills and petrol prices, but as a permanent “vibe shift” in the culture and a mandate to turn the US into an autocracy, take a chainsaw to US government agencies, have masked men abduct and shoot American citizens on the streets, launch a doomed and disastrous war, and fill the US capital with monuments to his own vanity, all while lining his pockets and those of his inner circle.
asserted
men → repeat → circle
The equivalent error this time, whether it’s made inside or outside the US, would be to read these midterm results as the end of the Trump threat and as proof that normal service will resume shortly.
asserted
service → make → proof
The danger of Trumpism, sadly, will never be gone.
asserted
danger → go → Trumpism
Because if something can happen once, it can happen again.
asserted
it → happen → ?
Trump was possible – which means another Trump is possible.
asserted
Trump → mean → ?
That is the lesson the US’s traditional allies, in Britain, the EU or elsewhere, need to internalise.
asserted
allies → need → Britain
Even if Capitol Hill will soon be in saner hands, even if Trump’s eventual successor is a good internationalist who believes in a rules-based order, the reliability of the US as an ally can never again be taken for granted.
asserted
reliability → believe → ally
Which means that the rest of the west must still plan for its own protection and defence.
asserted
rest → mean → protection
Sure, nationalist populism is now badly damaged, marked as the cause of losers.
asserted
populism → damage → losers
What’s more, Trump may well have demonstrated that nationalist movements whose sole currency is grievance will ultimately always fail – thereby deterring voters in France and Germany tempted to vote for Marine Le Pen or the AfD.
But, again, it’s hard to rely on that.
uncertain
it → ’ → that
Did Trump fail because politicians of his ilk always will?
asserted
politicians → fail → ilk
Or was it because he made stupid and, crucially, avoidable decisions, such as attacking Iran – which not only broke his core pledge, so cherished by Maga voters, to end wars rather than start them, but also drove up the very inflation he was elected to curb?
asserted
he → make → inflation
Either way, it’s hard to speak of inevitable failure when describing a man who, despite all the havoc he wreaked the first time around – including the violent insurrection of 6 January 2021 – was elected to a fresh term less than four years later.
asserted
he → ’ → term
He disgraced himself, but was rewarded with victory.
asserted
He → disgrace → victory
Besides, it’s too soon to speak of Trump in the past tense.
asserted
it → ’ → tense
True, he’s lost the doormat House and the rubber-stamp Senate that enabled him to act without restraint.
asserted
that → lose → restraint
But a weakened Trump is not necessarily a tamed Trump.
asserted
Trump → weaken → ?
I think of the seasoned Washington hand who told me Trump in defeat could become “a cornered animal”.
uncertain
Trump → think → defeat
When it comes to the world stage, he still has the power to act – foreign policy is largely the preserve of the president – and a double motive to do so.
asserted
policy → come → president
First, he will want a legacy to offset this week’s historic drubbing and, second and even more elementally, he craves the attention.
asserted
he → want → attention
The notion of ceding the spotlight to Democrats, or in fact anyone, will appal him.
asserted
notion → cede → him
Maybe he will bow to the demands lodged by JD Vance - in a statement on X that saw the vice president all but break from his boss – and move to end the war with Iran, even if that means capitulation.
asserted
that → bow → capitulation
Or he might double down and push for the toppling of the Tehran regime that he likely believes would give him the place in history he deserves.
uncertain
he → double → history
He still has the power to shape world events, even if that power has diminished.
asserted
power → have → events
That country had elections of its own last week that, though far from delivering the repudiation of Benjamin Netanyahu many Israelis sought, did wipe out his parliamentary majority.
asserted
Israelis → have → majority
Coalition horsetrading is now under way, and the US midterms are already playing a part.
asserted
midterms → play → part
Israeli opposition leaders argue that what Netanyahu long claimed as an asset – his closeness to Trump – is, after Tuesday, a liability, rendering Israel’s prime minister “toxic” among the Democrats who will soon wield power on Capitol Hill.
asserted
who → argue → Hill
If that argument prevails, the blue tsunami will have claimed not only Kansas and Texas, but the man once dubbed the Republican senator from Jerusalem.
asserted
tsunami → prevail → Jerusalem
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
