On Tuesday, President Donald Trump made the bombshell announcement that Washington – Israel’s most powerful and longest-standing ally – would end military aid to the country by the end of 2026.
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Washington → make → 2026
The decision concerns a 10-year pact made during Barack Obama’s administration to provide $3.8bn in military aid to Israel every year.
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decision → concern → Israel
This consists of $3.3bn in foreign military financing primarily to purchase US weapons and an additional $500m for missile defence.
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This → consist → defence
The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) starting from 2019 was due to expire in 2028, but the Trump administration made the shocking decision to cut the provision, with almost immediate effect, just two days before America went to the polls to vote in the midterm elections.
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America → start → elections
The Republicans went on to suffer a crushing defeat to the Democrats.
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Republicans → go → Democrats
Since Israel’s founding, it has been the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid, receiving over $300bn in both economic and military support, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
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it → receive → Relations
Many have interpreted the change as a seismic shift in the relationship between the US and Israel, but experts told The Independent that the picture is a little more complicated.
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picture → interpret → Independent
While the move has been interpreted by some as a sign of America’s shifting priorities, with a population increasingly unsympathetic to Israel due its war in Gaza, experts say that it is all part of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan.
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it → interpret → plan
In May, he told CBS’s 60 Minutes that he wanted to wean Israel off US military support.
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he → tell → support
He even appeared impatient to make the shift, saying: “I don’t want to wait for the next Congress.
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I → appear → Congress
I want to start now.”
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I → want → ?
Mr Netanyahu said that his goal was to “draw down to zero the American financial support, the financial component of the military cooperation that we have” in an attempt to create an image of Israel as self-reliant and independent.
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we → say → Israel
This will be of particular importance with Mr Netanyahu losing his majority in the Knesset.
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Netanyahu → lose → Knesset
Making his announcement, Mr Trump confirmed that the Israeli leader had come to him with the idea months ago and that they had collectively agreed to cut off support by the end of the year.
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they → make → year
Mr Netanyahu’s office said on Friday that the end of aid shows the “strength” of the US-Israeli relationship.
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end → say → relationship
“It is his [Netanyahu’s] idea,” says Gregg Roman, executive director of the Middle East Forum.
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Roman → say → Forum
“Ending aid gives Israel full control over what it buys and where it builds it, and it removes the main argument US critics use against the alliance.”
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critics → end → alliance
He says that the decision “moves from aid to partnership, with arms sales, co-production, intelligence sharing, and joint operations like the war against Iran”.
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decision → say → Iran
Nevertheless, President Isaac Herzog says that the announcement came like a “bolt from the blue” and Israeli media report that there is still considerable confusion around the agreement.
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media → say → agreement
“Nobody knows anything, except that Bibi promised him he would give it up without making a fuss,” one senior Israeli official told Ynet.
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official → know → Ynet
How would the cuts impact Israel’s military capacity?
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cuts → impact → capacity
A gap in funding
The suddenness of the announcement means that the economic impact on both Israelis and Americans could be powerful.
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impact → mean → Israelis
Around 17 per cent of Israel’s spending is allocated to defence.
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cent → allocate → defence
Without US aid this burden is likely to increase and the effects could be felt by the country’s taxpayers.
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effects → increase → taxpayers
It could also affect US citizens, with Ynet citing Israeli assessments that around one million American households whose livelihoods depend on the production of weapons and ammunition purchased by Israel, could be impacted.
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livelihoods → affect → Israel
“Israel will need to draw from its own sources to purchase these weapons,” says Dr Julie Norman, an associate fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.
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Norman → need → House
“That puts a lot of pressure on Israel to figure out where that money, which is significant for Israel, is going to come from.
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which → put → Israel
In order to sustain the current capabilities, you need to find $3.8bn in your budget, either by pulling from other parts of defence or from pulling from other parts of your broader ministerial government budget, or from increasing your borrowing and your broader economic debt.
“This does put economic pressure on Israel, crucially, I would say at a time when Israel is also facing increasing economic pressure from the announcement of at least some targeted sanctions from the UK, from European states and from others.”
Effect on Israel’s weapons
While Israel will have to find its own money to purchase the American weapons it now buys back using US aid with the bulk of the $3.3bn allocated for military financing, this will not end joint missile defence and development, where the rest of the annual funding tends to go.
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rest → sustain → funding
“My expectation is that there will be some sort of carve-out to allow for that cooperation to continue,” says Dr Norman.
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Norman → allow → out
“That’s something that I think many American politicians, even in this different political landscape with Israel, will see as important for both US and Israeli defence.
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politicians → ’ → defence
Mr Roman agrees and says that the $500m line co-funds the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow, so missile defence could be what to watch.
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defence → agree → what
Nevertheless, analysis by the Wall Street Journal reveals that billions of dollars worth of orders for US military hardware mean that getting out of the agreement so quickly could be more complicated than it appears.
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it → reveal → agreement
Because the US has already pledged around $7bn in aid over the next two years, Israel will have to find $10bn to pay for outstanding orders, according to a State Department document sent to Congress, reviewed by the WSJ.
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Israel → pledge → WSJ
Mr Roman says that the impact operationally is likely to be small initially but larger over a decade.
“Nearly all of the military financing funding buys the American platforms the Israeli Air Force flies: F-15s, F-16s, F-35s, and KC-46 tankers.
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Force → say → platforms
Planes keep flying.
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Planes → fly → ?
The defence ministry has to find shekels for those deliveries or stretch them out,” he explains.
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he → have → them
Israel has moved more munitions production home since Washington held back 2,000lb bombs in 2024, and ending aid speeds that shift.
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that → move → speeds
“Israeli firms built US production lines partly to win aid-funded contracts, and one major firm told Calcalist it will now reassess its American production.
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it → build → production
What does this mean for the US-Israeli relationship?
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this → mean → relationship
The larger significance of the decision could be what it implies about the state of the political relationship between the US and Israel.
“Politically, this is an incredibly important statement,” says Dr Norman.
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Norman → imply → US
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
