The election has ended without a clear winner.
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election → end → winner
Here are the top news lines from what will go down as one of New Zealand’s closest elections in many decades.
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what → go → decades
Christopher Luxon’s National party and its right-leaning coalition partners are on the brink of a wafer-thin majority that could allow it to eke out a return to power.
uncertain
it → lean → power
The left-wing bloc, led by Labour’s Chris Hipkins, fell short of a majority.
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bloc → lead → majority
Neither Luxon or Hipkins claimed victory or conceded defeat.
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Luxon → claim → defeat
Both acknowledged an expected wait before a governing coalition is negotiated.
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coalition → acknowledge → wait
A centrist newcomer, the Opportunity party, has entered parliament, polling above the 5% threshold.
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newcomer → enter → threshold
Final results are expected on 27 November.
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results → expect → November
Coalition talks will likely take weeks.
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talks → take → weeks
Hundreds of thousands of special votes are yet to be counted and could change the shape of parliament.
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thousands → count → parliament
Saturday figures showed there could be a 130-seat parliament, with 66 seats needed for a majority.
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seats → show → majority
Results suggested a coalition of National, Act and NZ First would hold 67 seats.
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coalition → suggest → seats
The 67 included 42 for National, 13 for Act and 12 for NZ First.
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67 → include → First
The left-bloc totalled 56 seats: Labour 35, Greens 16 and 5 for Te Pāti Māori.
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Greens → total → Māori
Over the coming days and weeks we will get a sense of the magnitude of Qiulae Wong and the Opportunity party’s success tonight.
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we → come → Wong
Opportunity are currently projected to claim seven seats in parliament.
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Opportunity → project → parliament
Wong has said that if she held the tiebreaker power, she was open to negotiating with either a conservative or a left-wing government and would deal first with whichever major party won the most votes.
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party → say → votes
The right-wing bloc might not need her, and Luxon has ruled out governing with Opportunity.
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Luxon → need → Opportunity
Analysts say, however, that both major party leaders would likely answer the phone if Wong held the only path to power.
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Wong → say → power
You can read more about the rise of Opportunity here, in this piece from Michelle Duff.
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You → read → Duff
With 0.56% support, Te Pāti Māori will be stoked with its result tonight, writes Jamie Tahana.
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Tahana → stoke → result
It seems odd, but the Māori party has spent the election deliberately asking people not to give them their party vote.
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party → seem → vote
Instead, they asked for electorate votes only.
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they → ask → votes
Just a reminder, seven of the seats in New Zealand’s parliament are reserved for representatives of Māori voters – you can read more about them here.
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you → reserve → them
The party’s co-leaders, Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, have comfortably won their respective seats of Waiariki and Te Tai Hauauru; Oriini Kaipara swept the Auckland seat of Tamaki Makaurau; Hana Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, who hit international stardom for her haka in parliament, has cruised across the line in Hauraki-Waikato; while Aperahama Edwards holds a narrow lead over the Greens’ Hūhana Lydon in the far North seat of Te Tai Tokerau.
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Edwards → win → Tokerau
That’s five seats.
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That → ’ → ?
Still, after a term that has seen plenty of in-fighting in Te Pāti Māori, there are signs of frustration in the Māori electorate, with Waititi and Ngarewa-Packer seeing significantly reduced majorities.
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Waititi → see → majorities
The Greens have fallen short of gaining their first ever Māori electorate, but across the seats party vote has risen to about 40%, making the party a significant force in Māori politics.
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party → fall → politics
Labour, having been punished by the Māori electorate in 2023, has improved, particularly in terms of party vote, and has claimed a new MP in Mananui Ramsden, who won the country’s largest electorate, Te Tai Tonga.
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who → punish → electorate
So, hundreds of thousands of special votes are going to potentially change where things stand right now.
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things → go → votes
In his speech tonight, Luxon said 300,000 special votes were yet to be counted.
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votes → say → speech
Those votes, which will be counted and known by 27 November, typically sway left.
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which → count → November
In the 2023 election there 600,000 special votes, and National dropped from 50 seats in the preliminary count to 48 seats.
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National → drop → seats
In a 130-seat parliament, in which 66 seats are needed to govern, this is where things stand with 97% of the vote counted.
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% → need → vote
However, special votes are still to be counted and the lay of the land will not be clear until 27 November.
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lay → count → November
Jamie Tahana has this hot-take on the Luxon speech:
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Tahana → have → speech
It was a tough line to tread for a speech: National is the biggest party on current results – 29.30% – but Luxon has also led the party to one of its most unpopular points, only 0.1% ahead of Labour.
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Luxon → tread → Labour
Luxon has also lost some of his most senior and experienced MPs, which he conceded required “some tough phone calls”.
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he → lose → calls
Luxon said that because of the closeness of the result, and with special votes still to be counted, caretaker conventions will apply.
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conventions → say → result
“For now, I want to tell New Zealanders that well established caretaker conventions apply …
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conventions → want → Zealanders
…and 15 more, not listed.
The Aporia
