Why the U.S. midterm results may show 'money stops mattering'
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money → show → ?
2026 midterms considered to be the most expensive elections in the country's history
Perhaps the more than $200 million US that Tesla CEO Elon Musk spent to elect Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to the Senate did have some impact on the electoral results.
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Musk → consider → results
"Paxton could have lost by more," said Peter Loge, an associate professor in the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, in Washington, D.C.
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Loge → lose → Washington
Still, all that money, along with another $245 million US spent by Musk to back other Republicans in the U.S. midterms, yielded few victories for the world's richest man, who was the top individual donor.
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who → spend → man
Paxton was thumped by Democrat James Talarico, as were most of the Republicans backed by Musk, in what many political observers see as evidence of the limited impact money had on this particular election.
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money → thump → election
"There was tons of money poured into these races, especially outside money on the Republican side," said Raymond La Raja, a political science professor and co-director of UMass Amherst Poll.
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Raja → be → Poll
"Didn't make a difference," he said.
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he → make → difference
"The structural situation overwhelmed the money."
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situation → overwhelm → money
That structural situation was an electorate deeply dissatisfied with the direction of the country and the job done by U.S. President Donald Trump.
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situation → do → Trump
"No amount of advertising can overwhelm people's lived experience," Loge said.
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Loge → overwhelm → experience
"No amount of money is going to solve the fact that people really don't like Donald Trump and really don't like the direction of the country.
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people → go → country
With final votes still pending, results show Democrats have gained more than 40 seats to take control of the House of Representatives.
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Democrats → pende → Representatives
Democrats have also flipped seven seats in the Senate to take control of that chamber.
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Democrats → flip → chamber
Meanwhile, Democrats have gained at least five governorships.
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Democrats → gain → governorships
These U.S. midterm elections were considered the most expensive in the country's history, with spending during the election cycle reaching around $11.6 billion US, according to AdImpact, an advertising intelligence company that analyzes political advertising.
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that → consider → advertising
When it came to money raised by individual candidates in House and Senate races, Democrats far outraised their Republican opponents.
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Democrats → come → opponents
Republicans had significant edge
But Republicans had a significant edge over Democrats in fundraising from outside groups, giving them an overall financial advantage.
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Republicans → have → advantage
For example, in the competitive Senate races, Republicans outspent Democrats by around $240 million US, according to a Bloomberg analysis.
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Republicans → outspent → analysis
Of the top individual donors, four of the top five were Republicans, according to OpenSecrets, a research group that tracks money in U.S. politics.
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that → accord → politics
Eight of the top 15 donors made the vast majority of their contributions to Republican-aligned candidates and causes, the group said.
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group → make → candidates
"If people were worried about money, it didn't seem to buy votes, or certainly, it didn't buy this election," La Raja said.
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Raja → seem → election
In Texas, Musk and other deep-pocketed Republicans spent $316 million US to back Paxton, whose campaign had raised only $22 million.
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campaign → spend → million
Meanwhile, Talarico's campaign raised more than $146 million US directly while Democratic groups spent $109 million to support him.
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groups → raise → him
But the $80-million edge Republicans had in funding failed to elect Paxton.
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Republicans → have → Paxton
"It just shows you, money is not going help a bad candidate win, especially when everyone's disapproving of the party," La Raja said.
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Raja → show → party
Campaigns certainly need money to compete, to buy yard signs and ads, and show that a candidate is serious, Loge said.
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Loge → need → signs
"But at some point, money stops mattering," he said.
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he → stop → point
"There's only so much stuff a campaign can buy."
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campaign → be → ?
La Raja said money was likely a more important factor in places like Kansas and Iowa, where candidates such as Democrats Josh Turek and Adam Hamilton had to get their names out.
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candidates → say → names
"The dollars they spend, especially in the beginning, are really helpful," he said.
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he → spend → beginning
"They had unique stories to tell ... and you needed the money to tell those stories."
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you → have → stories
James Talarico's campaign raised more than $146 million US directly while Democratic groups spent $109 million to support him.
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groups → raise → him
La Raja said money may also have played a role in helping mobilize voters for both parties and may have prevented an even bigger blowout for Republicans.
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money → say → Republicans
Money less relevant in wave election
But in a wave election like these midterms, money became a much less relevant factor, he said.
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he → become → midterms
In the past few election cycles, La Raja says, control of Congress has been fought over at the margins, where money could have made a difference because the races were close and people weren't really happy with either party.
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people → say → party
"This election, there was a clear repudiation of the Republican Party," he said.
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he → be → Party
Yet with all the money raised and spent, particularly on advertising, the political science data are not so clear on its impact, Loge said.
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Loge → raise → impact
He said the data tends to indicate that ads mostly work for candidates with less name recognition.
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ads → say → recognition
The messages in the ads can work briefly but don't tend to stick.
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messages → work → ads
Yet Loge predicts that for 2028, there will still be piles of money poured into campaigns, "maybe more strategically."
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Loge → predict → campaigns
…and 2 more, not listed.
The Aporia
