This is a republished monologue with permission from the creator.
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This → republish → creator
You can hear the original and the complete show, “REPUBLICAN MELTDOWN! The Brutal Truth Behind Trump’s Midterm Disaster,” here.
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You → hear → Disaster
This isn’t the moment to look for comfortable answers to an election blowout.
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This → look → blowout
This is the time to say, “All right, what is really going on? What’s really turning people off?”
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What → say → people
Challenge yourself and hope to meet the moment because that will lead to a better Republican Party, a conservative movement willing to address the issues.
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that → challenge → issues
And that’s what I really wanted to do.
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I → ’ → what
Make sure I don’t go to my defaults in this moment.
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I → make → moment
Look at liberal Vox; they asked me, to the effect of, “How do you know if your priors are wrong?
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priors → look → effect
I said, “Listen, everyone does this.
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everyone → say → this
Everyone says they don’t like to be challenged on their ideology.
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they → say → ideology
Look at the amendments over not allowing biological men in female spaces and female sports, which passed unanimously across the country in blue states like Colorado and Washington, and passed overwhelmingly.
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which → look → Colorado
Could you find 100 members of this current Democratic Congress, 50% or 52% who would sign onto a bill saying that?
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who → find → that
Could you find 50 members who would say there are actually only two biological sexes?
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who → find → members
The electoral class is almost always more extreme than the general public; remember that.
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class → remember → that
They fear the political class and its judgment.
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They → fear → class
They will ignore very obvious things most Americans believe.
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Americans → ignore → things
So the only way we’re going to be able to do that, to challenge ourselves to find better answers, is to examine the data.
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we → go → data
First, the generic ballot looks like it’s a D +13 electorate.
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it → look → ?
That means that the Democrats won the overall popular vote in the House of Representatives by a 13-point margin, which is near historic.
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which → mean → margin
It’s Watergate levels — very high.
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It → ’ → ?
We don’t know the exact number yet because, of course, California will be counting votes until the next election.
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California → know → election
They’ll finally finalize the vote, and then we’ll go to another election.
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we → finalize → election
So it’s about a 15-point swing — 15 points overall.
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it → ’ → ?
That’s what the New York Times is estimating, and they were very right in their polling.
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they → ’ → polling
Looking at the polling, the two groups that swung hardest against Republicans were young people, who moved 33 points toward Democrats, followed by Latinos, who moved 29 points toward Democrats.
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who → look → Democrats
There are a lot of young people who are Latinos.
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who → be → people
So when one moves, the other one moves with it because they’re kind of the same group in a lot of cases.
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they → move → cases
Two things about that: Latinos who are younger swung more to the left than Latinos who are older.
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who → swing → Latinos
Likewise, Latinos who make $50,000 a year or less
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who → make → 50,000
also swung further to the left than Latinos who made higher amounts of income — $100,000 or $200,000.
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who → swing → income
That’s both a persuasion part of that element of why they swung.
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they → ’ → element
It’s also a turnout part of that.
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It → ’ → that
Democrats persuaded more Latinos on policy, but they also persuaded more Democrat Latinos to turn out, which affects how aggressive that swing towards Democrat Latinos was.
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swing → persuade → Latinos
Florida is a great state to examine because it has a lot of data, a large Latino population, and, unlike Texas, it registers people by party.
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it → examine → party
This is going to be, by the way, the thing that I do for the rest of my life: encourage states to register people by party because it makes examining data much easier.
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examining → go → data
And unlike other states that do register by party, like Arizona and New York, which also have large Latino populations, Florida actually counts all their votes on election night.
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Florida → register → night
Can you imagine a world where, in New York, which is still counting votes, and Arizona, which is still counting votes, we could all count our votes on election night?
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we → imagine → night
In the early vote — Florida is a state where a majority of people, over 80% of the population, vote early — Latino Democrats outvoted Latino Republicans in every age category except Latino senior citizens.
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Democrats → vote → citizens
Among 18- to 34-year-olds, Latino Democrats outvoted Latino Republicans by a margin of three to one.
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Democrats → outvote → one
It was so small, in fact, among the youngest population that Latino independents outvoted them, and independents always vote less often than Republicans or Democrats.
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independents → outvote → Republicans
…and 106 more, not listed.
The Aporia
