One way would be to see them as a defeat for the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
asserted
way → see → Netanyahu
From holding a solid majority in the 120-member Knesset, the Netanyahu bloc has been reduced to a minority of 53 members.
asserted
bloc → hold → members
Anti-Netanyahu lawmakers, by contrast, hold 67 seats.
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lawmakers → hold → seats
Had Israel been a democracy, we would have seen scenes of celebration similar to the ones we saw this year in Hungary, Brazil and Serbia, where political forces with undemocratic tendencies were defeated.
asserted
forces → see → tendencies
But Israel is not a democracy, and Netanyahu was not necessarily defeated.
asserted
Netanyahu → defeat → ?
The second, more relevant way of reading the results of the Israeli election would necessitate accepting the apartheid nature of Israel and seeing the electoral arithmetic through that prism.
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way → read → prism
In this case, Netanyahu won because he secured 53 seats in the Knesset – five more than the anti-Netanyahu Jewish bloc.
asserted
he → win → bloc
To form a government, a bloc needs to have the support of at least 61 members of the Knesset.
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bloc → form → Knesset
The only way Netanyahu can do it is by enticing parties or lawmakers from the anti-Netanyahu bloc to join his bloc, as he has succeeded in doing many times in the past.
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he → do → past
Working with Palestinian parties, which secured 19 seats, is out of the question for him.
asserted
which → work → him
The obvious path for government formation for the anti-Netanyahu bloc would be to form a coalition – one that would include the two Palestinian parties.
asserted
that → form → parties
But to do so would mean to challenge Israeli apartheid.
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do → mean → apartheid
The main leaders of the Jewish anti-Netanyahu bloc, including Gadi Eisenkot, have promised not to do so under any circumstances.
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leaders → include → circumstances
There is another option: seeking the support of the religious Orthodox parties, which have so far been part of the Netanyahu bloc.
asserted
which → be → bloc
To secure their backing, the anti-Netanyahu bloc would have to promise to exempt religious Orthodox youth from military service and guarantee funding for their learning centres.
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bloc → secure → centres
However, Eisenkot’s main election promise was forcing young Haredi Jews into the army.
asserted
promise → force → army
So this is not a very likely scenario, but in politics, never say never.
asserted
this → say → politics
The problem here is that, according to a law passed a few years ago, as long as Netanyahu is still a defendant in an ongoing trial, he cannot serve as a minister; his coalition made sure that the legislation ridiculously would not apply to a prime minister.
uncertain
legislation → accord → minister
Given that Netanyahu’s corruption trial is destined to go on for a very long time, the rotation would make it impossible for Netanyahu to be part of a government under Eisenkot as prime minister.
asserted
Netanyahu → give → minister
That means he would demand to hold the rotating premiership first and leave open the option to collapse the government once his rotation is over.
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rotation → mean → government
Netanyahu has already done that before.
asserted
Netanyahu → do → that
In 2020, without any hesitation, he broke a rotation agreement with Benny Gantz, who had naively believed that after two years he would be the prime minister.
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he → break → years
This resulted in new elections, which Netanyahu won.
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Netanyahu → result → which
Finally, a very possible scenario is that neither of the two blocs would be able to form a government, which would mean new elections in six months.
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which → form → months
Netanyahu and his government would remain in office until the new polls, albeit with more limited authority.
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Netanyahu → remain → authority
This would give them the opportunity to reignite a war with Iran and Hezbollah and continue with their violent policies in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank in an attempt to attract more public support and win the elections.
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This → give → elections
This is the preferred option for Netanyahu because his relative defeat in the October 27 elections had a lot to do with the unprecedented galvanisation among the Palestinian voters in Israel and the more liberal Jewish Israelis living abroad who came back home in huge numbers to vote.
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who → have → numbers
These possible scenarios tell only part of the story and are not enough to fully understand what the election results mean for Israel, the Palestinians and the region.
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results → tell → Israel
Here are the more important conclusions one should draw from the results:
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one → draw → results
The first pertains to the future of the Palestinian citizens of Israel.
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first → pertain → Israel
They still could turn out to vote in large numbers if new elections are held soon.
uncertain
elections → turn → numbers
But if they are once more ignored and sidelined by the other political parties, they will never try it again.
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they → ignore → it
In this case, it would be difficult for the leadership of this community to continue to delay a strategic decision: choosing which political space Palestinian citizens of Israel belong to – the Israeli or the Palestinian one?
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citizens → continue → Israel
Until today, they have given a chance to the Israeli political system despite its racism, apartheid tendencies and criminal policies towards Palestinians.
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they → give → Palestinians
Palestinian parties recommended Eisenkot for the premiership to President Isaac Herzog, who has now tasked him with forming a government.
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who → recommend → government
If I can venture a prediction – and it is only a prediction – the anti-Netanyahu bloc would not engage meaningfully with the Palestinian parties.
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bloc → venture → parties
If I am wrong, this would be an incredible and transformative moment in the history of both Israel and Palestine, but there seems to be very little hope for such a development.
asserted
this → seem → development
There are other lessons we can learn from where we are now with the knowledge that this is a very volatile moment in the history of Israel.
asserted
this → be → Israel
The first and most important one is that whoever forms the next government of Israel will continue the incremental genocide in Gaza, the intensified ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and the aggressive policies towards the region.
asserted
forms → form → region
These policies as before can only be stopped or tamed by the region and the international community sending a clear message to Israel that there will be a price tag attached to such policies.
asserted
community → stop → policies
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
