They can feel a world away, but your energy bill says otherwise.
asserted
bill → feel → ?
In January, it could jump by more than a quarter – around £460 extra a year for the typical UK household – according to the latest forecasts from the big suppliers British Gas, EDF and E.ON.
uncertain
it → jump → suppliers
For the second time in four years, a war thousands of miles away is landing in British inboxes.
asserted
war → land → inboxes
Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices have soared.
asserted
prices → close → Hormuz
Winter is expected to push them higher still: demand for gas is rising just as Europe's winter gas stores are at their lowest since records began in 2011.
And there's a bigger threat looming over all of this: the warming climate.
asserted
records → expect → this
Cutting carbon emissions is essential to limit future warming and avoid the most damaging effects of climate change.
asserted
Cutting → cut → change
But keeping bills down while cutting emissions is proving hard – and not just for the UK.
asserted
keeping → keep → UK
As world leaders gather this week in Antalya, Turkey, for COP31, the UN climate summit, the same tension is playing out around the world.
asserted
tension → gather → world
Energy and climate policy has become the front line in a contest between the world's two energy superpowers, leaving everyone else squeezed in between.
asserted
policy → become → everyone
America is betting on fossil-fuel molecules: pumping record volumes of oil and gas and pressing its allies to buy them.
asserted
America → bet → them
China is betting on electrons: flooding the world with the solar panels, batteries and electric cars that can replace those fuels.
asserted
that → bet → fuels
Whether the bet on fossil fuels or renewables wins will shape not just what the world pays for energy, but how fast it can cut the emissions that are heating the planet.
asserted
that → shape → planet
The UK, which already buys nearly a quarter of its imported gas from America and much of its clean energy kit from China, is being pulled both ways.
asserted
which → buy → China
So which path will it take?
asserted
it → take → path
Is there a middle way and what will it all mean for your bills?
asserted
it → mean → bills
On the Moray Firth near Inverness, a long spit of sand and dunes curls out into the sea at Whiteness Head.
asserted
spit → curl → Head
Behind it lies a yard where, for nearly 30 years, thousands of workers built the giant platforms that opened up North Sea oil.
asserted
that → lie → oil
Ming Yang, one of China's biggest wind turbine makers, wanted to bring it back to life with a £1.5bn factory and up to 1,500 jobs initially generated.
asserted
Yang → want → factory
In March, after US lawmakers had urged the UK to block it, ministers did just that, citing national security.
asserted
ministers → urge → security
Last month, they approved a new North Sea gas field, Jackdaw.
asserted
they → approve → field
Few countries are more exposed to the energy shock than the UK.
asserted
countries → expose → UK
Gas heats most homes and, much of the time, sets the wholesale price of electricity.
asserted
Gas → heat → electricity
The last shock, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, cost households an extra £63bn – around £2,200 each – according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit and E3G, two climate and energy research organisations.
uncertain
shock → cost → Unit
Less than half of the UK's gas now comes from its own North Sea fields, and the energy we import often comes from places that turn out to be unstable or unreliable.
asserted
that → come → places
At the same time, Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh says tackling climate change remains a priority after Britain's hottest summer on record.
asserted
tackling → say → record
The heatwaves, droughts and wildfires it brought would have been almost impossible without global warming, the Met Office's chief scientist told BBC Panorama.
asserted
scientist → bring → Panorama
But when I pressed Fahnbulleh on which matters most, bills or climate, she was unequivocal: "With the cost of living biting, affordability is my overriding objective, without a doubt."
asserted
affordability → press → doubt
"We are far too exposed to global markets we have no control over," Fahnbulleh told me.
asserted
Fahnbulleh → expose → me
There are two ways to make Britain's energy more homegrown: drill for more of it, or build more of it.
asserted
energy → be → it
, US President Donald Trump - at war with wind turbines since objecting to a wind farm near his Aberdeenshire golf course in 2006 - took to Truth Social.
asserted
Trump → object → Social
"They should go FULL BLAST!!!" he wrote.
asserted
he → go → ?
Now the UK government faces a tougher choice - whether to approve Rosebank, west of Shetland, the UK's largest undeveloped oil field.
asserted
government → face → Shetland
Rosebank is far bigger than Jackdaw - Fahnbulleh has said it would produce about seven times the emissions - and it is mostly oil, not gas.
asserted
it → say → emissions
The subject has reportedly split the cabinet.
uncertain
subject → split → cabinet
A decision is expected within weeks.
asserted
decision → expect → weeks
The government's opponents are already blaming high bills on its reluctance to drill.
asserted
opponents → blame → reluctance
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has told the prime minister to "stop faffing about" and give permission, calling drilling "the only way we can protect families from rising bills".
"If we use our own gas… that will bring our bills down," says Reform UK's Richard Tice.
asserted
Tice → tell → bills
Soaring petrol prices are widely seen as a key reason Trump's Republicans lost control of Congress.
asserted
Republicans → soar → Congress
But when I asked Fahnbulleh whether producing more British oil and gas would bring bills down, she was clear.
asserted
she → ask → bills
"No, it doesn't," she said.
asserted
she → do → ?
…and 46 more, not listed.
The Aporia
