Around $2bn was staked on prediction markets across last week’s US midterm elections, yet sites like Polymarket and Kalshi aren’t categorised as bookmakers across the pond.
asserted
sites → stake → pond
The sector is rapidly growing, with binary markets becoming subject to increased spend across America: how many tweets Elon Musk will post on X today is a real market, alongside the next Democratic presidential nominee, the price of Bitcoin at 6am tomorrow morning and what Anthropic’s IPO closing market cap will be.
asserted
cap → grow → am
It has led to a number of contracts across American sport, with a deal between Major League Baseball and Polymarket potentially worth over £200m.
asserted
deal → lead → Baseball
The NBA last month got on the bandwagon, announcing partnerships with both Kalshi and Polymarket.
asserted
NBA → get → Kalshi
So are they coming to the Premier League, Hundred or other UK competitions?
asserted
they → come → League
The reality is that prediction markets would need to penetrate a very mature betting market to operate in the UK.
asserted
markets → need → UK
From a scratchcard at 16 to a bingo hall at 86 – and everything in between – the British betting market is already varied and very closely regulated.
asserted
market → regulate → between
The closest thing the UK has to a prediction market lever – betting exchanges like Betfair – are monitored by the Gambling Commission.
asserted
UK → have → Commission
Combined with oversight from the Financial Conduct Authority and the costs associated with obtaining a licence to operate here, it is more likely that prediction markets would follow the playbook of Asian betting sites, which are inaccessible to Brits but have spent big on UK sponsorships with global reach, such as Premier League football clubs.
asserted
which → combine → clubs
“Regulation is the significant barrier for entry, rather than any demand concern,” sport finance expert Professor Rob Wilson tells City AM.
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Wilson → tell → AM
“The US markets see them positioned as a type of financial exchange whereas the UK indicates they’re more like gambling operators hence the licensing requirement.
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they → see → operators
“These are well capitalised, ambitious businesses competing for visibility and market share.
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These → capitalise → visibility
Sport offers exactly what they need, especially where there are global audiences and quick brand recognition.
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they → offer → what
We’ve already seen crypto play in this area, so I sense these are next.
asserted
these → see → area
One major problem that could affect prediction markets in sport sponsorship, however, is the government’s consultation on banning unlicensed gambling brands.
uncertain
that → affect → brands
While prediction markets do not see themselves as casino products in the US, that description may not fly so well in the UK.
uncertain
description → see → UK
Regulatory hoops might mean that sponsorship is the only way in, by any means necessary, perhaps as a partner of US-facing properties like the NBA game in Manchester next January, or when the NFL comes to London.
uncertain
NFL → mean → London
The deal between Polymarket and the UFC could find itself into the O2 arena sooner rather than later.
uncertain
deal → find → arena
“In terms of what kind of deal we could see,” Wilson adds, “It will probably be official prediction market partnerships through the usual digital inventory and activation.
uncertain
It → see → inventory
“It’ll involve broadcast integration and data sweating to deliver fan engagement.
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It → involve → engagement
The platforms are built around engagement and sport, quite naturally, provides a continuous stream of events to trade on.
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sport → build → events
“We know overseas sponsorship strategy already happens and the reach is significant so there’s no reason why they wouldn’t pursue a similar strategy.
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they → know → strategy
The issue will be the UK government regulating out betting sponsorship.”
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government → regulate → sponsorship
Added a Betting and Gaming Council spokesperson: “Betting and gaming operators in the UK are subject to strict regulation by the Gambling Commission, and any prediction-style market operators would need to be licensed and meet those same robust standards.
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operators → add → standards
It is a sector that feels both distant and very present, but prediction markets are coming in some way, shape or form.
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markets → feel → way
The UK appears to be on top of the regulation but, like crypto, the cash potential is high and whether sport can ignore it creeping onto these shores will be a question for the coming seasons.
asserted
ignore → appear → seasons
The Aporia
