This is Part 1 of The Vaccine Divide, an updated data investigation into America potentially losing its measles-free status as the deadly virus roars back and childhood vaccine defenses continue to crack and crumble.
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defenses → update → status
When Dr. Jeffrey Koplan took over as head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 1998, he and his colleagues pledged to stop the spread of measles in the United States within four years.
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he → take → years
They did it in two.
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They → do → two
“We had a great vaccine,” said Koplan, now vice president for global health at Emory University.
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Koplan → have → University
He attributed the success to widespread, bipartisan support from national public health groups, including the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration, as well as pediatricians and state health departments.
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He → attribute → CDC
The virus receded, with only about 100 confirmed cases in the entire country that year.
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virus → recede → country
By 2000, a scourge of childhood was officially eliminated in the U.S.
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scourge → eliminate → U.S.
Now, it has roared back.
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it → roar → ?
Eight people, including four babies too young to be vaccinated, have died.
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people → include → babies
More than a year after an NBC News/Stanford University data investigation first revealed an alarming drop in childhood vaccination rates, an updated analysis finds cracks in the nation’s once-robust measles defense have widened into a chasm, particularly in the country’s most vulnerable areas.
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cracks → reveal → areas
Three-quarters of U.S. counties with recent data on kindergarten immunization rates are now below the recommended threshold for community measles protection, with more than half of counties dropping from the 2024-25 to 2025-26 school years.
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half → recommend → years
This week, an independent commission of the Pan American Health Organization, a group within the World Health Organization, is meeting in Washington to consider whether the U.S. has lost its measles elimination status.
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U.S. → meet → status
The group of eight includes epidemiologists, infectious disease and vaccine experts from countries in the Americas, including the U.S.
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group → include → U.S.
After PAHO officials make a final decision, they will inform the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, possibly this week.
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they → make → Health
Public health experts expect the group to revoke America’s measles-free status.
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group → expect → status
How the U.S. let its guard down
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guard → let → ?
The country’s immunity was eroded by decades of scientifically dubious claims about the dangers of childhood vaccines.
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immunity → erode → vaccines
Misinformation then exploded during the pandemic, when shutdowns also led to interruptions in routine shots.
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shutdowns → explode → shots
Thousands of Americans — nearly all unvaccinated — have been infected with measles in the last year and a half.
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all → infect → year
Pregnant women are losing their babies.
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women → lose → babies
Doctors are scrambling to figure out how to treat the disease in newborns.
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Doctors → scramble → newborns
Children are experiencing severe and sometimes irreversible neurologic complications.
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Children → experience → complications
“If we don’t get this under control, these numbers will only increase,” said Mark Jit, chair of the Department of Global and Environmental Health at the NYU School of Global Public Health.
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Jit → get → Health
“Every year, the situation is just going to get worse.”
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situation → go → ?
“We’ve forgotten how bad measles was,” said Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association.
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Benjamin → forget → Association
“In our forgetfulness, we’ve let our guard down.”
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we → let → guard
Since early 2025, public health workers have been in a whack-a-mole battle against measles, with epidemics in West Texas, Utah, Arizona, South Carolina and now Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Minnesota, New York and Wisconsin.
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workers → whack → Texas
According to the new data, the fall of immunization rates in the least-vaccinated counties appears to be accelerating.
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fall → accord → counties
Last school year, it fell to 79.2%.
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it → fall → %
An immunization rate of 95% is needed to prevent the spread of measles.
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rate → need → measles
“The fact that this divide is getting greater is really worrisome,” said Dr. Richard Besser, a pediatrician and president of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, a nonprofit philanthropic organization focused on health research and programs.
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Besser → get → research
“What it should do is lead to public health action and engage trusted voices in vulnerable communities to recognize that vaccines aren’t about politics.
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vaccines → lead → politics
They’re about protecting health.”
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They → ’re → health
Besser was acting CDC director under President Barack Obama.
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Besser → act → Obama
Coverage in counties with the highest vaccination rates also declined, but much less so — from 99.3% in 2019 to 97.7% during the 2025-26 school year.
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Coverage → decline → year
In a statement, the Department of Health and Human Services said that Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr and CDC director Erica Schwartz “continue to recommend MMR vaccination as the most effective way to prevent measles.”
If the Pan American Health Organization “removes U.S. elimination status, HHS and CDC will address the findings and work with partners to document interruption of endemic transmission and meet the requirements for re-achieving elimination status,” the statement read.
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statement → say → status
Small declines can have major implications
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declines → have → implications
It can linger in the air for hours after an infected person walks through a room.
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person → linger → room
Nearly everyone who’s not vaccinated and is exposed to the virus will become infected.
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who → vaccinate → virus
The new data was culled from a wide variety of state and local documents, including some materials obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, and then condensed into the most comprehensive analysis of vaccinations and school exemptions to date.
Nationwide, 75% of counties and jurisdictions with measles-mumps-rubella vaccine data fall below the threshold needed for herd immunity for measles, a notable increase compared with 2024-25.
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% → cull → 2024
…and 49 more, not listed.
The Aporia
