Claims extracted
15
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
7%
1 of 15 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
64/100
Evening Standard's corrections and
hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
3
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) argued that decisions around both monetary and fiscal policy were being “deferred”.
asserted
decisions → argue → policy
It warned this risks worsening inflation in the UK economy and squeezing the public finances.
asserted
this → warn → finances
New forecasts by NIESR show Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation in the UK rising to a peak of around 4.4% in February – up from the 3.8% peak predicted in July.
asserted
inflation → show → July
Rising inflation prompted the Bank of England to take action by raising interest rates to 4% last week – the first hike in more than three years.
asserted
inflation → rise → years
NIESR said it was expecting the Bank to raise rates one more time, but that this would not be enough, and would mean inflation not returning to the 2% target until late 2030.
asserted
inflation → say → 2030
This would hit poorer households the hardest because it leaves them with no choice but to buy less, rather than make adjustments to spending or dip into savings, it said.
asserted
it → hit → savings
Rates need to go as high as 5% to tackle the risk of second-round inflation effects, which will show up early next year when companies set their wages and prices, according to its analysis.
uncertain
companies → need → analysis
The Bank is only risking future hikes by delaying now, it argued.
asserted
it → risk → hikes
Meanwhile, NIESR also took aim at the Government’s fiscal policy, arguing that major spending drives remain unfunded, including on defence, social care and disability.
asserted
drives → take → defence
In last month’s autumn Budget, Chancellor John Healey confirmed that the UK’s fiscal headroom will reduce to £14.5 billion from £23.6 billion, which was linked to a jump in debt interest costs for the past year.
asserted
which → confirm → year
NIESR said plans to balance the public finances rely heavily on restraining public spending scheduled for the years ahead.
asserted
plans → say → years
But its analysis found that if the plan slips by as much as previous ones have, then the Government’s fiscal rules would be missed by around £30 billion.
asserted
rules → find → billion
The think tank argued that the Chancellor did not seize the opportunity at the autumn Budget to put the public finances on a firmer footing, and difficult decisions about taxes and spending were largely postponed.
asserted
decisions → argue → taxes
In the summer, NIESR called for the Government to raise or reform taxes or make cuts to spending in order to fund new cost-of-living and defence commitments.
asserted
Government → call → commitments
Elsewhere in the latest report, it forecast UK gross domestic product (GDP) at 1.6% this year – stronger than a previous prediction of 1.4%, and driven by Government spending and business investment, including on AI.
asserted
it → forecast → AI
The Aporia
