Are we playing with the old playbook or a new playbook in the midterm elections this fall?
asserted
we → play → elections
That’s unclear.
uncertain
That → ’ → ?
It’s hard to determine, simply because we’ve seen so much that’s "new" in politics lately.
asserted
that → ’ → politics
Norms are cast aside.
asserted
Norms → cast → ?
The American system quaked to its core in recent years.
asserted
system → quake → years
You’ve witnessed an American president win the election by prevailing in the Electoral College but losing the popular vote.
asserted
president → witness → vote
To have that happen twice in 16 years (2000 and 2016) is astonishing, considering the fact that such an outcome only unfolded on three occasions before.
asserted
outcome → happen → occasions
You then had a president impeached twice – yet return to office a few years later.
asserted
president → have → office
There was the Capitol riot, as arguing continued about the 2020 election.
asserted
arguing → be → election
If this is the old playbook, Democrats likely light up the scoreboard in November.
asserted
Democrats → light → November
The party of the President typically loses about 25 seats in a president’s first midterm.
asserted
party → lose → midterm
That’s why many Republicans are trying to keep President Donald Trump at arm’s length, considering that his polling numbers are anywhere from the mid-thirties to 40 percent on a good day.
asserted
numbers → ’ → day
Grocery prices are skyrocketing.
asserted
prices → skyrocket → ?
The war in Iran lingers.
asserted
war → linger → Iran
On the old playbook, this portends a disaster for the GOP in this fall’s midterms.
asserted
this → portend → midterms
But what if we’re using the new playbook?
asserted
we → use → playbook
President Trump – and sometimes Republicans aligned with him – have shown a remarkable resilience to defy political gravity and norms.
asserted
Trump → align → gravity
Control of the House could come down to just a few seats.
uncertain
Control → come → seats
What if there are questions about election security and the validity of who won and lost?
asserted
who → be → security
On paper, Republicans probably redrew about five to six seats nationwide in their favor.
asserted
Republicans → redrew → favor
If things are tight, we might not know which party wins the House on election night.
uncertain
party → know → night
That is, unless it’s a Democratic blowout.
asserted
it → ’ → ?
And, remember what we said a few moments ago about the president’s party losing so many seats in that first midterm?
asserted
party → remember → midterm
He experienced a midterm in 2018.
asserted
He → experience → 2018
Not that things went in the GOP’s favor that year.
asserted
things → go → favor
There’s no contemporary data on how the party of a President might perform after he’s been out of office and rallied to victory a few years later.
uncertain
he → ’ → victory
Also, the sheer reduction by both parties of seats which are in play mitigates political "waves" which crash across the political shoreline in House midterm races.
asserted
which → mitigate → races
Thus, even though many of the factors favor the Democrats, the possibility remains it could be tough for the party to flip the House.
uncertain
party → favor → House
In 2018, the Democrats’ carried an approval rating of 44%.
asserted
Democrats → carry → %
For this time around, it’s 37%.
asserted
it → ’ → time
That rivals polling related to the President.
asserted
That → rival → President
In 2018, voters had had enough of President Trump and wanted a change.
asserted
voters → have → change
But because of the polling parity this year, it’s not so obvious that voters are so turned off by President Trump that they automatically gravitate to the Democrats.
asserted
they → ’ → Democrats
Here’s another factor: turnout.
asserted
factor → ’ → ?
President Trump has worked hard to tell voters that he’s "on the ballot" this fall.
asserted
he → work → ballot
That cuts two ways.
asserted
That → cut → ways
President Trump’s presence on the ballot has historically driven people to the polls.
asserted
presence → drive → polls
In 2016, 60.1% of registered voters showed up.
asserted
% → register → voters
In 2020, an eye-popping 66.4% of all voters cast ballots.
asserted
% → pop → ballots
And in 2024, 64.3% of those registered to vote did so.
asserted
% → register → those
…and 35 more, not listed.
The Aporia
